晚年时也不妨作一些大胆的尝试。
别搞错了：退休后你仍将有大笔开销。那么怎样才能高枕无忧呢？千万别相信老朋友和家人们的传统观念。
他们的很多建议不只是错误的，而且蕴藏着巨大的风险。下面我们就列举三个传统观念，并将其一一攻破。
1) 生命短暂
退休的人在安排自己的生活时可能很少考虑生命的长短，然而当他们作出财务决策时，却总是好像过了今天就没有明天一样。60几岁的人经常会过于担心他们在退休后不久就会去世，这往往导致他们作出愚蠢的决定。
可能最愚蠢的做法就是从社会保障基金中提前支取退休金。你可以在62岁至70岁之间开始提取你的退休金，提取的越早，每月得到的金额就越少。尽管如此，2004年仍有54%的女性选择在62岁支取退休金，在这一年龄支取退休金的男性比例为49%。
没错，如果你的健康状况很差，早点支取退休金或许不失为明智之举。但即便如此，你也应该考虑一下配偶的预期寿命。为什么？如果你是家庭收入的主要创造者，你的配偶在你过世后依然可以领取丧偶退休金──所以晚些提取对配偶大有好处。
但如果你是单身，又不能确定是否长寿，你应该推迟提取还是早些提取呢？毫无疑问，也应该推迟提取。
没错，如果你推迟提取退休金，又在退休不久后去世，你从社保基金中享受到的福利就寥寥无几了。但是与活着但却过着拮 的生活相比，简简单单地死去也没什么大不了。
不幸的是，如果你活得很长，但却早早地用光了你的储蓄，你就很可能陷入一贫如洗的境地。到那时，你唯一的收入就是每个月从社保基金中领取的退休金──而你提取得越早，领取的金额就越少。
2) 保留本金
你是不是经常会听到有人说，“不要动用本金”，“不要 你的资产”？
事实上，提取一些本金可能是让你的退休储蓄保值的最好办法。
我又要老生常谈地提一下我经常在这个栏目发表的观点了：当你退休时，不妨考虑将25%或50%的资产转到即期固定年金中，这样你可以在有生之年按照经通货膨胀调整后的水平逐年提取，通货膨胀率大约为每年3%左右。
不过很多人仍然不愿购买年金。对于某些人来说，不去购买年金的理由和提前支取退休金如出一辙。
很多老年人担心他们在购买年金后不久就去世，而他们的庞大投资也就打水飘了。其实你可以在退休后的前十年陆续地少量买进年金，而不是一次性大笔投入，这样风险就小多了。
很多退休人员还有一个顾虑。当你将资金投入到固定年金的时候，钱就没了，这违背了“不要动用本金”的原则。不过从长远来看，动用本金购买年金有助于保留你的资产。
事实上，退休时你的支出可能会超出你的资产组合在扣除通货膨胀后带来的回报。在退休的早些年，你的资产的“真实”价值可能会慢慢萎缩。
而随着时光的流逝，这种萎缩程度也将加速，你需要让你的收入增长跟上通货膨胀的步伐，而投资组合价值萎缩后所带来的投资回报却在减少。到80岁左右，你的储蓄就基本上用光了。
如果你购买了年金，你就不会陷入这种绝境。年金不仅可以保证让你在有生之年都有收入，而且有了年金你就不用大手笔地支取剩余资产了。最后：在你去世的时候可能有大量资产还未动过。
如果你选择即期年金，你可能还会受到另外一个传统观念的束缚。你或许已经听说过，不应该在个人退休帐户(IRA)中购买年金。
是的，你可能不想动用个人退休帐户去购买可递延税款的固定或可变年金。个人退休帐户本身已经为你提供了递延税款的待遇，因此用这部分钱来进行可递延税款的投资就毫无意义。
但在个人退休帐户中购买即期年金仍然不失为明智之举。这不会立即产生任何税项。而如果你动用应纳税帐户购买即期年金，你可能要卖出股票，这就产生了资产所得税。
而且，年金收入将被作为正常收入计税，就像你从个人退休帐户中进行支取一样。因此用个人退休帐户购买即期年金，你就省下了随后引发的大笔税款。
3) 购买债券
传统观念认为，随着退休年龄的临近，你应该逐渐卖出股票，买进债券。这种说法有一定的道理。
不过不要将股票全盘卖出。我认为退休人员应该将其在全球多元化股票基金中的投资保留40%-60%。那么该如何解释上述传统观念呢？它是建立在一种错误的假设基础上──并且忽视了一个重大风险。
他们假设退休人员非常不愿承担风险。但事实上退休人员对于熊市经常比年轻投资者更加无所畏惧，因为他们拥有长期的投资经验。
诚然，如果你的投资组合是你的主要生活来源，而不仅仅是为退休作储备，那么股市崩盘对你的打击就大多了。不过除了股价下跌外，退休人员还要面临其他风险。
在25年至30年的退休过程中，通货膨胀可能给你的生活成本带来灾难性的打击。为了防范这种风险，你的投资回报就要超出通货膨胀率──这也就是你需要持有一定股票的原因。
原文：Jonathan Clements
Saturday, October 30, 2010
Friday, October 29, 2010
SEALINK - AmResearch reaffirms Buy on Sealink
Stock Name: SEALINK
Company Name: SEALINK INTERNATIONAL BHD
Research House: AMMB
KUALA LUMPUR: AmResearch reaffirms its BUY rating on SEALINK INTERNATIONAL BHD [] with an unchanged fair value at 86 sen a share based on a PE target of 7.0 times.
Sealink announced on Wednesday, Oct 27 the sale of two supply vessels worth RM67 million, valued at RM33.5 million each, which is at par to the current going rate.
'We understand these vessels are still under CONSTRUCTION [] and should be ready for delivery by year-end. We are keeping our estimates as we have assumed five to six vessels to be sold in our earnings model,' AmResearch said on Thursday.
'We gather that the group is looking to finalise the sale of two more vessels before the year closes out. Management guided that a RM55 million to RM60 million earnings range is within reach. Management also guided of the possibility of being awarded a long-term charter contract by year-end,' it said.
Company Name: SEALINK INTERNATIONAL BHD
Research House: AMMB
KUALA LUMPUR: AmResearch reaffirms its BUY rating on SEALINK INTERNATIONAL BHD [] with an unchanged fair value at 86 sen a share based on a PE target of 7.0 times.
Sealink announced on Wednesday, Oct 27 the sale of two supply vessels worth RM67 million, valued at RM33.5 million each, which is at par to the current going rate.
'We understand these vessels are still under CONSTRUCTION [] and should be ready for delivery by year-end. We are keeping our estimates as we have assumed five to six vessels to be sold in our earnings model,' AmResearch said on Thursday.
'We gather that the group is looking to finalise the sale of two more vessels before the year closes out. Management guided that a RM55 million to RM60 million earnings range is within reach. Management also guided of the possibility of being awarded a long-term charter contract by year-end,' it said.
STAR - OSK raises 2010 adex forecast
Stock Name: STAR
Company Name: STAR PUBLICATIONS (M) BHD
Research House: OSK
OSK Research has nudged up advertising expenditure (adex) growth forecast for 2010 to 15 per cent from 14 per cent previously.
In a research note today, OSK said this followed the recent upgrade in its gross domestic product (GDP) growth projection for the year to 7.5 per cent from seven per cent.
"As we expect adex growth for the fourth quarter of 2010 (4Q10) to moderate, we believe it is on track to meet our adex growth projection of 15 per cent for 2010.
"Based on this forecast, we see adex for 4Q10 growing at 10 per cent year-on-year and 3.5 per cent quarter-on-quater.
"This is in line with the slower GDP projection for the quarter, as well as a bigger base impact, whereby adex for 4Q09 accounted for some 29 per cent of total adex in for 2009," it said.
OSK said despite the rosier sector outlook, it was maintaining a 'neutral' call on the sector as there were now limited investment choices following the privatization of Astro All Asia Networks plc, and given the fact that investors had factored in robust adex growth for 2010 into stock prices.
"Media Prima is a good choice for investors seeking the widest exposure in the media sector, supported by its position as the only integrated media player in Malaysia with exposure to all media platforms," it said.
It recommended a 'buy' on the stock at the target price of RM2.45.
OSK said despite the recent windfall from its special dividend, the medium-term and long-term prospects for Star was rather unattractive, especially if one considered its relatively expensive valuation. It maintained its 'neutral' call on Star at a target price of RM3.68.
Meanwhile, it said Chinese Media was an attractive valuation proposition as the stock was currently trading below ten times its price earnings ratio on one-year forward earnings per share.
It recommended a 'buy' on the stock at a target price of RM1.35. -- Bernama
Company Name: STAR PUBLICATIONS (M) BHD
Research House: OSK
OSK Research has nudged up advertising expenditure (adex) growth forecast for 2010 to 15 per cent from 14 per cent previously.
In a research note today, OSK said this followed the recent upgrade in its gross domestic product (GDP) growth projection for the year to 7.5 per cent from seven per cent.
"As we expect adex growth for the fourth quarter of 2010 (4Q10) to moderate, we believe it is on track to meet our adex growth projection of 15 per cent for 2010.
"Based on this forecast, we see adex for 4Q10 growing at 10 per cent year-on-year and 3.5 per cent quarter-on-quater.
"This is in line with the slower GDP projection for the quarter, as well as a bigger base impact, whereby adex for 4Q09 accounted for some 29 per cent of total adex in for 2009," it said.
OSK said despite the rosier sector outlook, it was maintaining a 'neutral' call on the sector as there were now limited investment choices following the privatization of Astro All Asia Networks plc, and given the fact that investors had factored in robust adex growth for 2010 into stock prices.
"Media Prima is a good choice for investors seeking the widest exposure in the media sector, supported by its position as the only integrated media player in Malaysia with exposure to all media platforms," it said.
It recommended a 'buy' on the stock at the target price of RM2.45.
OSK said despite the recent windfall from its special dividend, the medium-term and long-term prospects for Star was rather unattractive, especially if one considered its relatively expensive valuation. It maintained its 'neutral' call on Star at a target price of RM3.68.
Meanwhile, it said Chinese Media was an attractive valuation proposition as the stock was currently trading below ten times its price earnings ratio on one-year forward earnings per share.
It recommended a 'buy' on the stock at a target price of RM1.35. -- Bernama
GENM - Genting Malaysia rating cut at Morgan
Stock Name: GENM
Company Name: GENTING MALAYSIA BERHAD
Research House: MORGAN STANLY
Genting Malaysia Bhd had its stock rating lowered to "equal-weight" from "overweight" at Morgan Stanley, which said it saw limited room for further gains in the near term. -- Bloomberg
Company Name: GENTING MALAYSIA BERHAD
Research House: MORGAN STANLY
Genting Malaysia Bhd had its stock rating lowered to "equal-weight" from "overweight" at Morgan Stanley, which said it saw limited room for further gains in the near term. -- Bloomberg
AIRPORT - MAHB jumps on share estimate boost
Stock Name: AIRPORT
Company Name: MALAYSIA AIRPORT HOLDINGS BHD
Research House: MAYBANK
Malaysia Airports Holdings Bhd (MAHB) rose 1.9 per cent to RM5.97, set for its steepest gain since September 30.
The share price estimate was raised to RM7.12 from RM6.63 by Khair Mirza, an analyst at Maybank Investment Bank Bhd, who cited growth potential from investment in an airport in Turkey. - Bloomberg
Company Name: MALAYSIA AIRPORT HOLDINGS BHD
Research House: MAYBANK
Malaysia Airports Holdings Bhd (MAHB) rose 1.9 per cent to RM5.97, set for its steepest gain since September 30.
The share price estimate was raised to RM7.12 from RM6.63 by Khair Mirza, an analyst at Maybank Investment Bank Bhd, who cited growth potential from investment in an airport in Turkey. - Bloomberg
Wednesday, October 27, 2010
TENAGA - MIDF keeps Q4 Tenaga earnings forecast
Stock Name: TENAGA
Company Name: TENAGA NASIONAL BHD
Research House: MIDF
MIDF Research has retained its fourth quarter earnings forecast for Tenaga Nasional Bhd (TNB) as rising coal prices could weigh down the company's result.
"We are maintaining our financial year 2010 number for time being. We are wary of the impact from the rising cost of coal with potential margin compression in the fourth quarter 2010," it said in its research note today.
It added that expectation on this year's average coal price has increased to US$95 for 2010. The cost of coal has risen since December 2009, pushing Tenaga's average coal price to US$92 per tonne, as compared to US$82 per tonne in the first half this year.
As such, gross margin suffered, declining to 23.3 percent in the third quarter 2010 from 32.1 percent in the second quarter.
MIDF has also maintained a "buy" call on Tenaga Nasional Bhd with its target price remaining unchanged at RM10.35. -- Bernama
Company Name: TENAGA NASIONAL BHD
Research House: MIDF
MIDF Research has retained its fourth quarter earnings forecast for Tenaga Nasional Bhd (TNB) as rising coal prices could weigh down the company's result.
"We are maintaining our financial year 2010 number for time being. We are wary of the impact from the rising cost of coal with potential margin compression in the fourth quarter 2010," it said in its research note today.
It added that expectation on this year's average coal price has increased to US$95 for 2010. The cost of coal has risen since December 2009, pushing Tenaga's average coal price to US$92 per tonne, as compared to US$82 per tonne in the first half this year.
As such, gross margin suffered, declining to 23.3 percent in the third quarter 2010 from 32.1 percent in the second quarter.
MIDF has also maintained a "buy" call on Tenaga Nasional Bhd with its target price remaining unchanged at RM10.35. -- Bernama
Tuesday, October 26, 2010
KOSSAN - OSK Research maintains Buy on Kossan
Stock Name: KOSSAN
Company Name: KOSSAN RUBBER INDUSTRIES BHD
Research House: OSK
KUALA LUMPUR: OSK Research is maintaining its Buy on Kossan and its target price for Kossan is RM5.25, based on PER of 13x FY11 EPS.
'We like the company's equal emphasis on natural rubber and nitrile gloves, which we believe is important in weathering the current period of normalizing demand for examination gloves,' it said on Tuesday, Oct 26.
OSK Research said it also liked the company's strong emphasis on higher margin examination gloves.
Kossan also differentiated itself from its peers with a product mix comprising 60% natural rubber and 40% nitrile gloves.
OSK Research said having this balanced mix ensures earnings sustainability for the company as this gives it more flexibility in shifting its glove mix whenever demand shifts as it would have the production lines and distribution arms ready and markets to sell to.
Company Name: KOSSAN RUBBER INDUSTRIES BHD
Research House: OSK
KUALA LUMPUR: OSK Research is maintaining its Buy on Kossan and its target price for Kossan is RM5.25, based on PER of 13x FY11 EPS.
'We like the company's equal emphasis on natural rubber and nitrile gloves, which we believe is important in weathering the current period of normalizing demand for examination gloves,' it said on Tuesday, Oct 26.
OSK Research said it also liked the company's strong emphasis on higher margin examination gloves.
Kossan also differentiated itself from its peers with a product mix comprising 60% natural rubber and 40% nitrile gloves.
OSK Research said having this balanced mix ensures earnings sustainability for the company as this gives it more flexibility in shifting its glove mix whenever demand shifts as it would have the production lines and distribution arms ready and markets to sell to.
KENCANA - OSK Research maintains Buy on Kencana
Stock Name: KENCANA
Company Name: KENCANA PETROLEUM BHD
Research House: OSK
KUALA LUMPUR: OSK Research is maintaining its Buy call on Kencana Petroleum and its target price remains unchanged at RM2.06, based on a calendarised PER of 16 times FY11 EPS.
'The stock remains our top pick for the oil and gas (O&G) sector due to its strong delivery track record and reputation in the industry,' said the research house on Tuesday, Oct 26.
To recap, despite the slowdown in new O&G contract awards this year, Kencana's cumulative awards to-date since April 2010 has reached about RM700 million, which represents half of OSK Research's forecast revenue for the company.
OSK Research said Kenanca's order book also has increased to RM1.8 billion (from RM1.6 billion earlier) while its tender book stands at about RM2 billion.
Company Name: KENCANA PETROLEUM BHD
Research House: OSK
KUALA LUMPUR: OSK Research is maintaining its Buy call on Kencana Petroleum and its target price remains unchanged at RM2.06, based on a calendarised PER of 16 times FY11 EPS.
'The stock remains our top pick for the oil and gas (O&G) sector due to its strong delivery track record and reputation in the industry,' said the research house on Tuesday, Oct 26.
To recap, despite the slowdown in new O&G contract awards this year, Kencana's cumulative awards to-date since April 2010 has reached about RM700 million, which represents half of OSK Research's forecast revenue for the company.
OSK Research said Kenanca's order book also has increased to RM1.8 billion (from RM1.6 billion earlier) while its tender book stands at about RM2 billion.
SPSETIA - SP Setia upgraded to 'buy' at Kenanga
Stock Name: SPSETIA
Company Name: SP SETIA BHD
Research House: KENANGA
SP Setia Bhd, Malaysia's largest property developer, had its stock rating upgraded at Kenanga Investment Bank Bhd to reflect the company's earnings growth prospects.
The company was raised to "buy" from "trading buy" and its fair value increased to RM5.50 from RM4.78, Yeow Yeonzon, an analyst, said in a report today. -- Bloomberg
Company Name: SP SETIA BHD
Research House: KENANGA
SP Setia Bhd, Malaysia's largest property developer, had its stock rating upgraded at Kenanga Investment Bank Bhd to reflect the company's earnings growth prospects.
The company was raised to "buy" from "trading buy" and its fair value increased to RM5.50 from RM4.78, Yeow Yeonzon, an analyst, said in a report today. -- Bloomberg
SUNWAY - ECM keeps 'buy' call on Sunway
Stock Name: SUNWAY
Company Name: SUNWAY HOLDINGS BHD
Research House: ECMLIBRA
ECM Libra Investment Research has maintained a "buy" call on Sunway Holdings Bhd with its target price remaining unchanged at RM2.61.
This is premised on strong earnings growth of 67.6 per cent in the financial year 2010, more landbank acquisitions in the pipeline, and its strength in securing overseas construction contracts, ECM Libra Investment said in a research note today.
Last Friday, Sunway announced that it had entered into a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Shanghai Zhushengyuan Real Estate Co. Ltd (SZRE). - Bernama
Company Name: SUNWAY HOLDINGS BHD
Research House: ECMLIBRA
ECM Libra Investment Research has maintained a "buy" call on Sunway Holdings Bhd with its target price remaining unchanged at RM2.61.
This is premised on strong earnings growth of 67.6 per cent in the financial year 2010, more landbank acquisitions in the pipeline, and its strength in securing overseas construction contracts, ECM Libra Investment said in a research note today.
Last Friday, Sunway announced that it had entered into a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Shanghai Zhushengyuan Real Estate Co. Ltd (SZRE). - Bernama
Mandarin Version : Commodities & Currencies - Yet Another Sign Of A Rebound On The Greenback
Light Sweet Crude Oil futures (Crude)
♦ After registering an “evening star” candle and a negative candle in the previous weeks, the US Light Sweet Crude Oil futures continued to move lower last
week. It recorded another small negative candle.
Mandarin Version : Commodities & Currencies - Yet Another Sign Of A Rebound On The Greenback… -
♦ After registering an “evening star” candle and a negative candle in the previous weeks, the US Light Sweet Crude Oil futures continued to move lower last
week. It recorded another small negative candle.
Mandarin Version : Commodities & Currencies - Yet Another Sign Of A Rebound On The Greenback… -
Saturday, October 23, 2010
第十三个月的薪金
学校教我们要节俭，要储蓄，那是对的，但从来不教我们如何投资，结果是我们进入社会工作，
都是“财盲”，就是对理财完全无知，就好像“文盲”目不识丁一样。
所以，受薪者一定要“行有馀力，则以学财”——学习投资。
投资是可以学习的。
股票投资肯定是可以学习的，但你必须坐言起行，现在就开始学习。
天下没有白吃的午餐。一分耕耘，一分收获。
总是希望别人替你赚钱，这种倚赖心理，是你走向失败的第一步。
钱必须靠自己去赚，别人没有替你赚钱的义务。
朝人生目标迈进
设定一个奋斗的目标，穷一生之力，向这目标前进。
在年轻时，投资额有限，投资收入，可能只占你每月的总收入的一小部份。
时间越长，投资收入在你的总收入中所占的比例，应该越来越大。
到你退休时，你的投资收入，最低限度，应该等于你最后一个月的薪金，甚至更高。
这样，你是退休了，但你的收入并没有跟着“退休”。
大部份人在退休时，收入也跟着他“退休”，迫使他退而不休。
如果退休的是你，而不是你的收入的话，你向职场说“拜拜”之后，就不必再为五斗米而折腰，
这才有可能渡写意的晚年。
请你想像一下，当你退休时，你拥有13 家五星级公司的股票，是你以30 年时间累积而成的。
假设你最后1 个月的薪金为1 万令吉，退休后每只股票每年发给你1 万令吉的股息，等于你不
必工作每月仍能有1 万令吉的收入，你不但能保持任职时的生活素质，而且可以提高。
在工作时，你赚到了钱，但没有时间去享受，因为你的时间已卖给了雇主。
退休后，时间属于你自己，而收入没有中断，你可以享受人生了。
这才是你梦寐以求的人生境界吧？为什么是13 个月，而不是12 个月的收入？因为第13 个月
的“准薪金”是你的花红。
你辛苦一辈子后，退休后仍应该享有花红，作为奖励。
为退休生活奋斗
连工作表现不怎样的公务员，都可享有13 个月薪金，何况是服务社会30 年的你？
让我们一齐为第13 个月薪金这个目标而奋斗。
无论是股票或房地产投资，都应以“不退休的薪金”为奋斗的终极目标。
转载：冷眼
都是“财盲”，就是对理财完全无知，就好像“文盲”目不识丁一样。
所以，受薪者一定要“行有馀力，则以学财”——学习投资。
投资是可以学习的。
股票投资肯定是可以学习的，但你必须坐言起行，现在就开始学习。
天下没有白吃的午餐。一分耕耘，一分收获。
总是希望别人替你赚钱，这种倚赖心理，是你走向失败的第一步。
钱必须靠自己去赚，别人没有替你赚钱的义务。
朝人生目标迈进
设定一个奋斗的目标，穷一生之力，向这目标前进。
在年轻时，投资额有限，投资收入，可能只占你每月的总收入的一小部份。
时间越长，投资收入在你的总收入中所占的比例，应该越来越大。
到你退休时，你的投资收入，最低限度，应该等于你最后一个月的薪金，甚至更高。
这样，你是退休了，但你的收入并没有跟着“退休”。
大部份人在退休时，收入也跟着他“退休”，迫使他退而不休。
如果退休的是你，而不是你的收入的话，你向职场说“拜拜”之后，就不必再为五斗米而折腰，
这才有可能渡写意的晚年。
请你想像一下，当你退休时，你拥有13 家五星级公司的股票，是你以30 年时间累积而成的。
假设你最后1 个月的薪金为1 万令吉，退休后每只股票每年发给你1 万令吉的股息，等于你不
必工作每月仍能有1 万令吉的收入，你不但能保持任职时的生活素质，而且可以提高。
在工作时，你赚到了钱，但没有时间去享受，因为你的时间已卖给了雇主。
退休后，时间属于你自己，而收入没有中断，你可以享受人生了。
这才是你梦寐以求的人生境界吧？为什么是13 个月，而不是12 个月的收入？因为第13 个月
的“准薪金”是你的花红。
你辛苦一辈子后，退休后仍应该享有花红，作为奖励。
为退休生活奋斗
连工作表现不怎样的公务员，都可享有13 个月薪金，何况是服务社会30 年的你？
让我们一齐为第13 个月薪金这个目标而奋斗。
无论是股票或房地产投资，都应以“不退休的薪金”为奋斗的终极目标。
转载：冷眼
KLK - KL Kepong buys land at reasonable price
Stock Name: KLK
Company Name: KUALA LUMPUR KEPONG BHD
Research House: ECMLIBRA
The acquisition of 7,177 hectares will add to the 133,114-hectare oil palm landbank of Kuala Lumpur Kepong Bhd (KLK) in Indonesia, according to ECM Libra Investment Research.
KLK announced yesterday its subsidiary KL-Kepong Plantation Holdings Sdn Bhd was buying 95 per cent of PT Bumi Makmur Sejahtera Jaya (PTBMS) from Tjong Hasan Agus Salim and Tjhang Ardy Fadrinata.
PTBMS holds two certificates of Izin Lokasi for land measuring 2,336.62 hectares in Desa Mentawak and Desa Air Kelik, Kecamatan Kepala Kampit, Belitung Timur, and another 4,840 hectares in Desa Lilangan, Desa Limbongan, Desa Jangkar Asam, and Desa Gantung, Kecamatan Gantung, Belitung Timur.
"In terms of purchase price for the Izin Lokasi (location permit) land, the purchase price comes up to roughly RM12,300 per hectare," ECM Libra Investment said in an equity note today.
"Generally, RM12,000 per hectare for green-field land is a reasonable price to pay, whether in Malaysia or in Indonesia," it said.
ECM Libra Investment said that KLK has a planting target of 15,000 hectares per annum.
"With its current unplanted landbank in Indonesia (including the acquisition) and assuming no new acquisitions, the group will take 4.2 more years to complete planting. Major maturities in Indonesia will kick in two to three years' time," it said.
ECM Libra Investment said it continued to have a "buy" on KLK with a target price of RM21.70. -- Bernama
Company Name: KUALA LUMPUR KEPONG BHD
Research House: ECMLIBRA
The acquisition of 7,177 hectares will add to the 133,114-hectare oil palm landbank of Kuala Lumpur Kepong Bhd (KLK) in Indonesia, according to ECM Libra Investment Research.
KLK announced yesterday its subsidiary KL-Kepong Plantation Holdings Sdn Bhd was buying 95 per cent of PT Bumi Makmur Sejahtera Jaya (PTBMS) from Tjong Hasan Agus Salim and Tjhang Ardy Fadrinata.
PTBMS holds two certificates of Izin Lokasi for land measuring 2,336.62 hectares in Desa Mentawak and Desa Air Kelik, Kecamatan Kepala Kampit, Belitung Timur, and another 4,840 hectares in Desa Lilangan, Desa Limbongan, Desa Jangkar Asam, and Desa Gantung, Kecamatan Gantung, Belitung Timur.
"In terms of purchase price for the Izin Lokasi (location permit) land, the purchase price comes up to roughly RM12,300 per hectare," ECM Libra Investment said in an equity note today.
"Generally, RM12,000 per hectare for green-field land is a reasonable price to pay, whether in Malaysia or in Indonesia," it said.
ECM Libra Investment said that KLK has a planting target of 15,000 hectares per annum.
"With its current unplanted landbank in Indonesia (including the acquisition) and assuming no new acquisitions, the group will take 4.2 more years to complete planting. Major maturities in Indonesia will kick in two to three years' time," it said.
ECM Libra Investment said it continued to have a "buy" on KLK with a target price of RM21.70. -- Bernama
Friday, October 22, 2010
LIONIND - OSK Research ups TP for Lion Industries Corp to RM2.32
Stock Name: LIONIND
Company Name: LION INDUSTRIES CORPORATION
Research House: OSK
OSK Research has maintained its trading buy call on Lion Industries Corp at RM1.96 and raised its target price for the stock to RM2.32 (from RM2.18) after the company's 73%-owned subsidiary Lion Forest Industries (LFI) announced that its 84.2%-owned Silverstone Corporation (SCB) has disposed of 100% equity interest in Silverstone Bhd for a cash consideration of RM462 million to Toyo Tire & Rubber Co Ltd.
The research house said the net disposal gain of RM140 million to LFI, and the RM102 million that would accrue to Lion Industries' P&L, should be classified as exceptional.
"Although a potential earnings dilution prompts us to slash our estimates by 6.4% for FY6/11 and 12.4% for FY6/12, we are hopeful of the negative implications being compensated by a potential special cash payout of as much as RM233.6 million to Lion Industries, and taking into account the 14 sen enhancement to the company's NTA.
"We are also tweaking our PER multiple to 6 times from 5 times but retain our NTA/share parameter at 0.6 times, after which our 12-month target price is revised upwards to RM2.32. Trading Buy," it said in a note on Friday, Oct 22.
Company Name: LION INDUSTRIES CORPORATION
Research House: OSK
OSK Research has maintained its trading buy call on Lion Industries Corp at RM1.96 and raised its target price for the stock to RM2.32 (from RM2.18) after the company's 73%-owned subsidiary Lion Forest Industries (LFI) announced that its 84.2%-owned Silverstone Corporation (SCB) has disposed of 100% equity interest in Silverstone Bhd for a cash consideration of RM462 million to Toyo Tire & Rubber Co Ltd.
The research house said the net disposal gain of RM140 million to LFI, and the RM102 million that would accrue to Lion Industries' P&L, should be classified as exceptional.
"Although a potential earnings dilution prompts us to slash our estimates by 6.4% for FY6/11 and 12.4% for FY6/12, we are hopeful of the negative implications being compensated by a potential special cash payout of as much as RM233.6 million to Lion Industries, and taking into account the 14 sen enhancement to the company's NTA.
"We are also tweaking our PER multiple to 6 times from 5 times but retain our NTA/share parameter at 0.6 times, after which our 12-month target price is revised upwards to RM2.32. Trading Buy," it said in a note on Friday, Oct 22.
Thursday, October 21, 2010
Axis REIT 3Q net profit surges to RM24.26m
KUALA LUMPUR: Axis Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) net profit for the third quarter (3Q) ended Sept 30, 2010 surged to RM24.26 million from RM10.25 million a year ago, on the back of revenue RM22.39 million.
Earnings per share was 7.6 sen, while net assets per share was RM1.89.
For the nine months ended Sept 30, its net profit rose to RM60.41 million from RM33.21 million in 2009.
Commenting on its prospects, Axis REIT said it was optimistic that in view of the current satisfactory performance of its existing investment portfolio and its growth strategy to actively pursue quality acquisitions, it will be able to maintain its current performance for the coming quarter and the rest of the financial year ending Dec 31, 2010.
Earnings per share was 7.6 sen, while net assets per share was RM1.89.
For the nine months ended Sept 30, its net profit rose to RM60.41 million from RM33.21 million in 2009.
Commenting on its prospects, Axis REIT said it was optimistic that in view of the current satisfactory performance of its existing investment portfolio and its growth strategy to actively pursue quality acquisitions, it will be able to maintain its current performance for the coming quarter and the rest of the financial year ending Dec 31, 2010.
Wednesday, October 20, 2010
理财课
每个人对金钱有不同的看法，他们对理财有自己的一套。
以下是最简单和普及的理财方式，愿与大家共享之。
理财第一课： 记账
列下开支项目，然后每月做个统计，一年后做个总结，你会发现到一些不必要的开销可以省去。
一般上，开支如下：（注： 这包括有家庭的，单身的，有男女朋友的，随君选择。）
1. 伙食费（Food & drink）
2. 通讯费（telephone & internet)
3. 房贷(mortgage or housing loan instalment）
4. 车贷(car hire purchase instalment)
5. 汽车或机车费（vehicle running expenses) 如：车油，路税，维修，车险和一切相关费用
6. 保险费（insurance) 如房屋和个人，伴侣或孩子。
7. 孩子费（child expenses) 如孩子奶粉，尿布，教育，保姆，衣裤等
8. 水电费（electricity & water)
9. 娱乐费（entertainment & recreation) 如看戏，打球等，也可以涵盖健身等, Astro
10. 文具，书和杂志费(printing, stationery & periodical) 如报纸，杂志，刊物，文具等
11. 会员费（member fee) 如一些团体会员费
12. 个人杂费（personal expenses) 如衣裤，包包，眼睛，剪发，化妆等比较私人的费用
13. 医药费(medical fee) 这个是医生看诊费，去药剂店买药，看牙医等费用
14. 电脑费（computer & related expenses) 如电脑维修，软件，购买空CD片，一切有关电脑的费用。
15. 其他
其实有很多开支项目，不能一一列出，这按照个人所需。
最重要的是要养成记账的习惯。这个要恒心，而且要对自己有诚意，不要随意乱填。这个不需要任何会计软件，普通的spreadsheet如microsoft的excel就可以。
理财，从记账开始。
记账（补充）
一个月作总结，然后算出各个开支占了总开销多少巴仙。这些数字不会骗人，它现在你的眼前，你会发觉到一些无必要的开销当初为何会消费。
分出一些是必然开销，当然开销和可有可无的开销，找出空间能省则省。如果一个月下来，你还有剩余10%of 你的薪水，恭喜你，你踏出了理财第一步。
其实，最难的就是记账，记录你一个月的开销。这一步没做好，往后那些理财计划等都是纸上谈兵。之前我本身没什么记录开销的习惯，自孩子出世后，发现到每月钱用光光，名副其实的月光族。那时才痛下决心记账，每个月都做小总结，每三个月总结，每半年大总结，每年大大结算。
每个月头几天，拿一两个小时出来，看看下上个月的开销。你会发觉到有时真的很浪费，而且在不很需要的情况下消费。这样这个月在那方面有比较谨慎花费。
特别是女性，周边的东西太多太吸引妮们了。所以记账对女性特别重要
MEGB - Masterskill at the top of its class
Stock Name: MEGB
Company Name: MASTERSKILL EDUCATION GROUP
Research House: CIMB
Masterskill Education Group Bhd
(Oct 19, RM3.34)
Initiate coverage at RM3.18 with outperform call and target price RM4.62: Masterskill is the ideal pick for investors seeking long-term exposure to two defensive sectors ' education and healthcare. It boasts strong fundamentals and growth, backed by its segment leadership, favourable healthcare education prospects, shortage of healthcare professionals and expansion plans. The negative impact of the delays of two new campuses in FY10 should subside in FY11/12. Masterskill's share price has recovered from its recent low but is still below its RM3.80 IPO price.
We begin coverage with an 'outperform' call and end-CY11 target price of RM4.62, based on 13.8 times CY12 PER which is in line with our target market PER, but a discount to the average PER of listed domestic and regional comparables. Potential re-rating catalysts include: (i) better than expected student growth and quarterly results; (ii) an improvement in investor sentiment on the stock; and (iii) investor preference for growth and defensive plays.
Growth is essentially a volume game for education providers. Masterskill has a total expandable student capacity of 36,000. Revenue is pegged to two sectors ' healthcare and education ' where demand is relatively resilient to macro factors. This underpins the group's growth outlook, backed by future capacity expansion which should ensure continued growth in student population. The shortage of healthcare professionals locally and globally is overall positive for the group.
Masterskill's (i) leading position in the industry with the highest market share in its segment; (ii) Ebitda margin of over 40%, superior to local education companies' 15% to 20%; and (iii) exposure to the healthcare and education sectors are key factors that will ensure strong fundamentals over the long term. ' CIMB Research
Company Name: MASTERSKILL EDUCATION GROUP
Research House: CIMB
Masterskill Education Group Bhd
(Oct 19, RM3.34)
Initiate coverage at RM3.18 with outperform call and target price RM4.62: Masterskill is the ideal pick for investors seeking long-term exposure to two defensive sectors ' education and healthcare. It boasts strong fundamentals and growth, backed by its segment leadership, favourable healthcare education prospects, shortage of healthcare professionals and expansion plans. The negative impact of the delays of two new campuses in FY10 should subside in FY11/12. Masterskill's share price has recovered from its recent low but is still below its RM3.80 IPO price.
We begin coverage with an 'outperform' call and end-CY11 target price of RM4.62, based on 13.8 times CY12 PER which is in line with our target market PER, but a discount to the average PER of listed domestic and regional comparables. Potential re-rating catalysts include: (i) better than expected student growth and quarterly results; (ii) an improvement in investor sentiment on the stock; and (iii) investor preference for growth and defensive plays.
Growth is essentially a volume game for education providers. Masterskill has a total expandable student capacity of 36,000. Revenue is pegged to two sectors ' healthcare and education ' where demand is relatively resilient to macro factors. This underpins the group's growth outlook, backed by future capacity expansion which should ensure continued growth in student population. The shortage of healthcare professionals locally and globally is overall positive for the group.
Masterskill's (i) leading position in the industry with the highest market share in its segment; (ii) Ebitda margin of over 40%, superior to local education companies' 15% to 20%; and (iii) exposure to the healthcare and education sectors are key factors that will ensure strong fundamentals over the long term. ' CIMB Research
TRC - New lease on life for TRC Synergy
Stock Name: TRC
Company Name: TRC SYNERGY BHD
Research House: HWANGDBS
TRC Synergy Bhd
(Oct 19, RM1.39)
Upgrade to buy from fully valued at RM1.38 with revised target price RM1.85 (from 94 sen): We base our upgrade on TRC to 'buy' on a higher 12 times PER multiple and higher earnings. This is a 35% discount to the sector's 18 times average to reflect its smaller market cap and less diversified business portfolio. We also raise FY10/12 EPS by 8% to 112% to account for higher new order assumptions of RM250 million to RM800 million for those years, coupled with higher margins of 7% to 8% (against RM158 million to RM300 million and 6% margins). The stock is the cheapest in our universe, trading at one-year forward nine times PER and 0.8 times price to net tangible assets, while its balance sheet is strong with 79 sen net cash per share.
TRC will see substantial order book replenishment over the next three to six months after a period of muted contract wins. We understand it is the front runner to clinch the main contractor role for the 9.2km Kelana Jaya line (Kelana Jaya station to Summit). This is part of the 17.7km stretch which closed for tender in late-August and is awaiting award. Total contract value could be at least RM1 billion to RM1.5 billion, half of the RM2.5 billion to RM3 billion for Package A that includes 7.2km of the Ampang line. The closest competitor is UEM Builders, but apparently TRC has been recommended to the Ministry of Finance by Syarikat Prasarana Negara Bhd. We understand the Kelana Jaya line is more complex with a higher contract value. This could see its order book quadruple to RM1.9 billion from RM400 million currently, implying four or five years earnings visibility.
TRC's total RM3.3 billion tender book includes circa RM1 billion for the LRT extensions and infrastructure works in the Sarawak Corridor of Renewable Energy (SCORE) and East Coast Economic Region (RM200 million). We understand there are 15 packages in SCORE that are opened to UPK licence holders. TRC's UPK licence allows it to compete in the closed Sarawak construction market dominated by a handful of players. Contract flows in the state are expected to be strong, given the anticipated rollout of more projects in SCORE and the upcoming state elections. ' HwangDBS Vickers Research, Oct 19
This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily
Company Name: TRC SYNERGY BHD
Research House: HWANGDBS
TRC Synergy Bhd
(Oct 19, RM1.39)
Upgrade to buy from fully valued at RM1.38 with revised target price RM1.85 (from 94 sen): We base our upgrade on TRC to 'buy' on a higher 12 times PER multiple and higher earnings. This is a 35% discount to the sector's 18 times average to reflect its smaller market cap and less diversified business portfolio. We also raise FY10/12 EPS by 8% to 112% to account for higher new order assumptions of RM250 million to RM800 million for those years, coupled with higher margins of 7% to 8% (against RM158 million to RM300 million and 6% margins). The stock is the cheapest in our universe, trading at one-year forward nine times PER and 0.8 times price to net tangible assets, while its balance sheet is strong with 79 sen net cash per share.
TRC will see substantial order book replenishment over the next three to six months after a period of muted contract wins. We understand it is the front runner to clinch the main contractor role for the 9.2km Kelana Jaya line (Kelana Jaya station to Summit). This is part of the 17.7km stretch which closed for tender in late-August and is awaiting award. Total contract value could be at least RM1 billion to RM1.5 billion, half of the RM2.5 billion to RM3 billion for Package A that includes 7.2km of the Ampang line. The closest competitor is UEM Builders, but apparently TRC has been recommended to the Ministry of Finance by Syarikat Prasarana Negara Bhd. We understand the Kelana Jaya line is more complex with a higher contract value. This could see its order book quadruple to RM1.9 billion from RM400 million currently, implying four or five years earnings visibility.
TRC's total RM3.3 billion tender book includes circa RM1 billion for the LRT extensions and infrastructure works in the Sarawak Corridor of Renewable Energy (SCORE) and East Coast Economic Region (RM200 million). We understand there are 15 packages in SCORE that are opened to UPK licence holders. TRC's UPK licence allows it to compete in the closed Sarawak construction market dominated by a handful of players. Contract flows in the state are expected to be strong, given the anticipated rollout of more projects in SCORE and the upcoming state elections. ' HwangDBS Vickers Research, Oct 19
This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily
Karambunai, Jetson, Muhibbah, glove makers, Integrax
KUALA LUMPUR: Key Asian markets will come under pressure on Wednesday, Oct 20 due to external factors from the US and also China's surprise first rate hike since 2007.
On Wall Street, US stocks posted their biggest loss in two months on Tuesday on fears banks might be on the hook for billions of dollars in souring mortgage bonds, according to Reuters. The broad selloff came on high volume in a pattern similar to last week's when fears over banks surfaced.
The Dow Jones industrial average dropped 165.07 points, or 1.48%, to 10,978.62. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index lost 18.81 points, or 1.59%, to 1,165.90. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 43.71 points, or 1.76%, to 2,436.95.
The S&P 500 fell the most since mid-August when equities were in a steep selloff. The index closed below its 10-day moving average, which some traders see as a bearish sign.
China, the engine of growth in an anemic global recovery, raised interest rates by 25 basis points for the first time since 2007 to curb its booming economy.
At Bursa Malaysia, stocks will come under selling pressure due to the weakening external factors. While investors' sentiment is expected to be jittery, they should focus on companies where there is strong management direction to grow.
They should instead view any sell-down to pick up stocks with strong growth stories and management.
Stocks to watch include those related to Malaysian tycoon Tan Sri Dr Chen Lip Keong which are KARAMBUNAI CORP BHD [], PETALING TIN BHD [] and FACB Industries Bhd. Also in focus would be KUMPULAN JETSON BHD [], Muhibbah Engineering Bhd, glove makers and Integrax .
The Edge FinancialDaily reports on Wednesday that investors have flocked to shares of Chen's flagship Malaysian entity Karambunai Corp Bhd after the government announced plans last month at the Economic Transformation Programme for a proposed 500-acre "eco-nature" resort in Kota Kinabalu, Sabah.
Although the government has yet to disclose the name and area of where the integrated resort would be in Kota Kinabalu, many believe that Karambunai Corp is likely to be a beneficiary from the proposed project.
In Jetson, a rival faction led by managing director Datuk Teh Kian An has initiated a requisition notice for an EGM to remove a board member, seen as a proxy to another camp led by the Naza brothers.
Jetson said it had received the requisition notice and another special notice of intention to remove Chow Chee Kin from the board of the CONSTRUCTION [] outfit.
Jetson shareholders seeking the EGM to remove Chow are Adiljaya Sdn Bhd, Citigroup Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd (pledged securities account for Tee Chee Beng), Teh Kian An, Leng Ah Chu, Tee Chee Beng, Tee Keng Kok, K. K. Tee Holdings Sdn Bhd, Teh Tiong, Teh Siow Wee and Citigroup Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd (pledged securities account for Teh Kian An).
Muhibbah Engineering has secured a RM205.8 million contract from Putrajaya Holdings Sdn Bhd to design and build as well carry out external works at the federal administrative centre in Putrajaya.
The contract was expected to commence this year and be completed in the year 2013.
Handal Resources Bhd's unit Handal Offshore Services Sdn Bhd has received an extension of contract from Talisman Malaysia Ltd to provide crane maintenance contract for PM-3 CAA & PM-305.
Chief executive officer and managing director Mallek Rizal Mohsin said the contract was expected to improve the company's earnings for the financial year ending Dec 31, 2010.
The Malaysian Rubber Glove Manufacturers' Association (MARGMA) has advised its members to increase and adjust prices to be in tandem with high raw material costs and continued weakening US dollar.
MARGMA president KM Lee said on Tuesday, Oct 19, most rubber glove manufacturers had started raising prices of their products to reflect the increasing raw material costs and the weakening of the US dollar.
'If the orders forthcoming do not match the glove price requested, glove makers have no choice but to reduce the output,' said Lee.
Bursa Malaysia Securities Bhd has issued a notice to STAMFORD COLLEGE BHD [] to delist the company after it had rejected the company's proposed regularisation plan.
The company had received a notice to show cause on de-listing and it was given five market days on or before Oct 25 to make a written representation to Bursa Securities as to why it should not be delisted.
Integrax announced on Tuesday its unit, Integrax Philippines Inc, which owns 20.01% of Platinum Group Metals Corporation, has entered into a conditional share purchase agreement to dispose of the entire stake in PGMC to Lin Ou Wen, a Chinese individual, for a total consideration of US$13.96 million.
In another development, the transshipment services agreement between Integrax's 80% owned Lekir Bulk Terminal Sdn Bhd and Vale International SA had lapsed. This would have provided recurring revenue for Lekir.
On Wall Street, US stocks posted their biggest loss in two months on Tuesday on fears banks might be on the hook for billions of dollars in souring mortgage bonds, according to Reuters. The broad selloff came on high volume in a pattern similar to last week's when fears over banks surfaced.
The Dow Jones industrial average dropped 165.07 points, or 1.48%, to 10,978.62. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index lost 18.81 points, or 1.59%, to 1,165.90. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 43.71 points, or 1.76%, to 2,436.95.
The S&P 500 fell the most since mid-August when equities were in a steep selloff. The index closed below its 10-day moving average, which some traders see as a bearish sign.
China, the engine of growth in an anemic global recovery, raised interest rates by 25 basis points for the first time since 2007 to curb its booming economy.
At Bursa Malaysia, stocks will come under selling pressure due to the weakening external factors. While investors' sentiment is expected to be jittery, they should focus on companies where there is strong management direction to grow.
They should instead view any sell-down to pick up stocks with strong growth stories and management.
Stocks to watch include those related to Malaysian tycoon Tan Sri Dr Chen Lip Keong which are KARAMBUNAI CORP BHD [], PETALING TIN BHD [] and FACB Industries Bhd. Also in focus would be KUMPULAN JETSON BHD [], Muhibbah Engineering Bhd, glove makers and Integrax .
The Edge FinancialDaily reports on Wednesday that investors have flocked to shares of Chen's flagship Malaysian entity Karambunai Corp Bhd after the government announced plans last month at the Economic Transformation Programme for a proposed 500-acre "eco-nature" resort in Kota Kinabalu, Sabah.
Although the government has yet to disclose the name and area of where the integrated resort would be in Kota Kinabalu, many believe that Karambunai Corp is likely to be a beneficiary from the proposed project.
In Jetson, a rival faction led by managing director Datuk Teh Kian An has initiated a requisition notice for an EGM to remove a board member, seen as a proxy to another camp led by the Naza brothers.
Jetson said it had received the requisition notice and another special notice of intention to remove Chow Chee Kin from the board of the CONSTRUCTION [] outfit.
Jetson shareholders seeking the EGM to remove Chow are Adiljaya Sdn Bhd, Citigroup Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd (pledged securities account for Tee Chee Beng), Teh Kian An, Leng Ah Chu, Tee Chee Beng, Tee Keng Kok, K. K. Tee Holdings Sdn Bhd, Teh Tiong, Teh Siow Wee and Citigroup Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd (pledged securities account for Teh Kian An).
Muhibbah Engineering has secured a RM205.8 million contract from Putrajaya Holdings Sdn Bhd to design and build as well carry out external works at the federal administrative centre in Putrajaya.
The contract was expected to commence this year and be completed in the year 2013.
Handal Resources Bhd's unit Handal Offshore Services Sdn Bhd has received an extension of contract from Talisman Malaysia Ltd to provide crane maintenance contract for PM-3 CAA & PM-305.
Chief executive officer and managing director Mallek Rizal Mohsin said the contract was expected to improve the company's earnings for the financial year ending Dec 31, 2010.
The Malaysian Rubber Glove Manufacturers' Association (MARGMA) has advised its members to increase and adjust prices to be in tandem with high raw material costs and continued weakening US dollar.
MARGMA president KM Lee said on Tuesday, Oct 19, most rubber glove manufacturers had started raising prices of their products to reflect the increasing raw material costs and the weakening of the US dollar.
'If the orders forthcoming do not match the glove price requested, glove makers have no choice but to reduce the output,' said Lee.
Bursa Malaysia Securities Bhd has issued a notice to STAMFORD COLLEGE BHD [] to delist the company after it had rejected the company's proposed regularisation plan.
The company had received a notice to show cause on de-listing and it was given five market days on or before Oct 25 to make a written representation to Bursa Securities as to why it should not be delisted.
Integrax announced on Tuesday its unit, Integrax Philippines Inc, which owns 20.01% of Platinum Group Metals Corporation, has entered into a conditional share purchase agreement to dispose of the entire stake in PGMC to Lin Ou Wen, a Chinese individual, for a total consideration of US$13.96 million.
In another development, the transshipment services agreement between Integrax's 80% owned Lekir Bulk Terminal Sdn Bhd and Vale International SA had lapsed. This would have provided recurring revenue for Lekir.
Property Sector Update - Going From Strength To Strength - 20/10/2010
♦ Upgrade valuations. We upgrade our valuations for the property stocks under
our coverage, as many have almost hit our target price recently. We still see
values in the sector led by sustained property prices and demand, and valuations
of many property stocks are still attractive, currently trading at or slightly below
their +1 stdev of 6-year P/B mean. Our expectation that ARPP will continue to hold
well until 2012/2013 suggests that the property sector will remain robust next year.
Property Sector Update - Going From Strength To Strength - 20/10/2010
our coverage, as many have almost hit our target price recently. We still see
values in the sector led by sustained property prices and demand, and valuations
of many property stocks are still attractive, currently trading at or slightly below
their +1 stdev of 6-year P/B mean. Our expectation that ARPP will continue to hold
well until 2012/2013 suggests that the property sector will remain robust next year.
Property Sector Update - Going From Strength To Strength - 20/10/2010
Tuesday, October 19, 2010
SIME - Sime Darby is a dark horse
Stock Name: SIME
Company Name: SIME DARBY BHD
Research House: ECMLIBRA
Sime Darby Bhd
(Oct 18, RM8.81)
Upgrade to buy at RM8.84 with revised target price RM11.80 (from RM7.75): Year-to-date, Sime Darby's stock lags significantly behind the FBM KLCI's 17.6% gain at a -1.45% decline, making it a serious laggard. With improving crude palm oil (CPO) fundamentals, we believe Sime's plantation segment could shine through the problems that Sime Engineering has caused.
We expect the Malaysian equity market to be driven by foreign net equity inflows in 4QCY10, and in this respect Sime is also a laggard. Its foreign shareholding hit a high of about 22.3% in early 2008 before the commodity price crash. Management says foreign shareholding is at 14% as at 3QCY10, which indicates there may be upside should foreigners take further interest in the stock. To note, quarter-on-quarter, foreign shareholding has already gained 0.9 percentage point.
Keeping CPO prices buoyant at the moment are: (i) stronger exports driven by new demand from Pakistan and Egypt, as well as demand from the US and EU; (ii) production is a bit weak as October production surge may not be sufficient to take the industry through the upcoming festive season and 1QCY11 cyclical downturn in production; and (iii) potential for a supply crunch in the soyabean market despite record crops in North America as supplies are eing mopped up by China and from bio-diesel demand.
We are raising our FY11 CPO average selling price (ASP) to RM2,700 per metric ton from RM2,400 previously and raising FY12 CPO ASP from RM2,400 to RM2,600. Changes to our EPS actually show a decline from previous estimates as we have made adjustments to other segments, which are: (i) assuming that the E&U division breaks even at best (previously we were forecasting some RM150 million profit); (ii) lower property segment margins from 33% to 25% as were seen in FY10; and (iii) flattened growth prospects for the industrial segment due to slow machine orders.
When CPO prices reached past RM3,000 in early 2008, Sime traded at a rolling forward PER in excess of 25 times. Currently, Sime still trades at 18 times on FY11 EPS. We believe there is still room to run given the said fundamentals. As such, we are raising our PER target to +1 standard deviation above historical average which gives a PER of 24 times. Pegging FY11 EPS to 24 times raises our target price to RM11.80 (RM7.75 previously on 15 times PER) which implies 35% upside from the current price. ' ECM Libra Investment Research, Oct 18
This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, October 19, 2010.
Company Name: SIME DARBY BHD
Research House: ECMLIBRA
Sime Darby Bhd
(Oct 18, RM8.81)
Upgrade to buy at RM8.84 with revised target price RM11.80 (from RM7.75): Year-to-date, Sime Darby's stock lags significantly behind the FBM KLCI's 17.6% gain at a -1.45% decline, making it a serious laggard. With improving crude palm oil (CPO) fundamentals, we believe Sime's plantation segment could shine through the problems that Sime Engineering has caused.
We expect the Malaysian equity market to be driven by foreign net equity inflows in 4QCY10, and in this respect Sime is also a laggard. Its foreign shareholding hit a high of about 22.3% in early 2008 before the commodity price crash. Management says foreign shareholding is at 14% as at 3QCY10, which indicates there may be upside should foreigners take further interest in the stock. To note, quarter-on-quarter, foreign shareholding has already gained 0.9 percentage point.
Keeping CPO prices buoyant at the moment are: (i) stronger exports driven by new demand from Pakistan and Egypt, as well as demand from the US and EU; (ii) production is a bit weak as October production surge may not be sufficient to take the industry through the upcoming festive season and 1QCY11 cyclical downturn in production; and (iii) potential for a supply crunch in the soyabean market despite record crops in North America as supplies are eing mopped up by China and from bio-diesel demand.
We are raising our FY11 CPO average selling price (ASP) to RM2,700 per metric ton from RM2,400 previously and raising FY12 CPO ASP from RM2,400 to RM2,600. Changes to our EPS actually show a decline from previous estimates as we have made adjustments to other segments, which are: (i) assuming that the E&U division breaks even at best (previously we were forecasting some RM150 million profit); (ii) lower property segment margins from 33% to 25% as were seen in FY10; and (iii) flattened growth prospects for the industrial segment due to slow machine orders.
When CPO prices reached past RM3,000 in early 2008, Sime traded at a rolling forward PER in excess of 25 times. Currently, Sime still trades at 18 times on FY11 EPS. We believe there is still room to run given the said fundamentals. As such, we are raising our PER target to +1 standard deviation above historical average which gives a PER of 24 times. Pegging FY11 EPS to 24 times raises our target price to RM11.80 (RM7.75 previously on 15 times PER) which implies 35% upside from the current price. ' ECM Libra Investment Research, Oct 18
This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, October 19, 2010.
CARLSBG - Breweries brewing boisterously
Stock Name: CARLSBG
Company Name: CARLSBERG BREWERY MALAYSIA BHD
Research House: MAYBANK
Brewery
Upgrade to overweight from neutral: The silence on excise duties for alcoholic beverages was confirmed to be good news for brewers, following a press statement from Guinness Anchor Bhd (GAB) regarding another year of reprieve. We upgrade net profit forecasts for GAB by 3% to 12% for FY11/13, and our call to a 'buy' (from 'hold') and our target price (TP) to RM9.60 (from RM8.40). Maintain 'buy' on Carlsberg with a higher discounted cash flow-based TP of RM5.70 (from RM5.50) after raising our 2010/12 net profit forecasts by 4% to 6%.
The government surprised everyone by omitting any mention of excise duty changes for alcoholic drinks for a sixth consecutive year since 2005. Leading local brewers had only just individually reported the first year of increased sales volumes in 2009 that cumulatively also exceeded 2005's sales volumes for the first time.
We initially imputed a 4% to'' 5% excise duty hike in 2010/12. The absence of a hike in 2010 is highly positive for sales volumes in 2010/11 and net profits for both Carlsberg and GAB. As a result, we now expect a minimum 5% volume growth for the industry instead of just 1% in 2010. In tandem with a now lower 3% increase in average prices instead of 8%, this will raise GAB's FY10/12 net profit forecasts by a further 3%, 9% and 12% respectively. arlsberg is less positively affected due to its high share of earnings contribution from overseas, but its 2010/12 net profit should still rise a further 4% to 5% from our initial forecasts.
The brewers' oft-repeated line that excise duty on beer is the second highest globally seems to be effective still. Possibly, it is also hoped that without excise-led price hikes, the illicit sale of alcoholic beverages will not scale the heights of illicit tobacco sales in the country, reported to be the second-highest level globally.
With the government's recent stress on the increased importance of tourism revenue and raising the country's attractiveness to conduct business, brewers may have been an unwitting, collateral beneficiary. If tourism and business conduciveness are truly the main aims, there could be yet significant further upside to our 2011/12 forecasts for both brewers.
We raise our FY11/13 forecasts for GAB by 3% to 12% and DCF-based TP to RM9.60 from RM8.40 as a result. We are also buyers of Carlsberg with a raised DCF-based TP of RM5.70 (from RM5.50) after raising our 2010/12 net profit forecasts by 4% to 6%. ' Maybank Investment Bank Bhd Research, Oct 18
This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, October 19, 2010.
Company Name: CARLSBERG BREWERY MALAYSIA BHD
Research House: MAYBANK
Brewery
Upgrade to overweight from neutral: The silence on excise duties for alcoholic beverages was confirmed to be good news for brewers, following a press statement from Guinness Anchor Bhd (GAB) regarding another year of reprieve. We upgrade net profit forecasts for GAB by 3% to 12% for FY11/13, and our call to a 'buy' (from 'hold') and our target price (TP) to RM9.60 (from RM8.40). Maintain 'buy' on Carlsberg with a higher discounted cash flow-based TP of RM5.70 (from RM5.50) after raising our 2010/12 net profit forecasts by 4% to 6%.
The government surprised everyone by omitting any mention of excise duty changes for alcoholic drinks for a sixth consecutive year since 2005. Leading local brewers had only just individually reported the first year of increased sales volumes in 2009 that cumulatively also exceeded 2005's sales volumes for the first time.
We initially imputed a 4% to'' 5% excise duty hike in 2010/12. The absence of a hike in 2010 is highly positive for sales volumes in 2010/11 and net profits for both Carlsberg and GAB. As a result, we now expect a minimum 5% volume growth for the industry instead of just 1% in 2010. In tandem with a now lower 3% increase in average prices instead of 8%, this will raise GAB's FY10/12 net profit forecasts by a further 3%, 9% and 12% respectively. arlsberg is less positively affected due to its high share of earnings contribution from overseas, but its 2010/12 net profit should still rise a further 4% to 5% from our initial forecasts.
The brewers' oft-repeated line that excise duty on beer is the second highest globally seems to be effective still. Possibly, it is also hoped that without excise-led price hikes, the illicit sale of alcoholic beverages will not scale the heights of illicit tobacco sales in the country, reported to be the second-highest level globally.
With the government's recent stress on the increased importance of tourism revenue and raising the country's attractiveness to conduct business, brewers may have been an unwitting, collateral beneficiary. If tourism and business conduciveness are truly the main aims, there could be yet significant further upside to our 2011/12 forecasts for both brewers.
We raise our FY11/13 forecasts for GAB by 3% to 12% and DCF-based TP to RM9.60 from RM8.40 as a result. We are also buyers of Carlsberg with a raised DCF-based TP of RM5.70 (from RM5.50) after raising our 2010/12 net profit forecasts by 4% to 6%. ' Maybank Investment Bank Bhd Research, Oct 18
This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, October 19, 2010.
Hwang DBS Vickers Research: Profit taking likely to persist
KUALA LUMPUR: Hwang DBS Vickers Research said despite an overnight rise on Wall Street, where the main indices rose between between 0.48% and 0.73%, the Malaysian bourse could continue to consolidate with a slight downward bias ahead.
In its market outlook on Tuesday, Oct 19, it said profit-taking activity is likely to persist as the benchmark FBM KLCI has already climbed in 16 of the past 20 weeks for a cumulative gain of 211.5-point or 16.7%. On the chart, it has set the immediate support level at 1,465.
In terms of individual share price actions, there should be interest in: (a) Boustead Holdings and BOUSTEAD HEAVY INDUSTRIES CORP []oration, after receiving a letter of intent from the Ministry of Defence to construct six patrol vessels; and (b) TRC Synergy, amid a media report saying that it has emerged as the frontrunner to clinch the LRT extension project.
Separately, Bursa Malaysia is due to announce its July to September quarterly financial results around noon.
In its market outlook on Tuesday, Oct 19, it said profit-taking activity is likely to persist as the benchmark FBM KLCI has already climbed in 16 of the past 20 weeks for a cumulative gain of 211.5-point or 16.7%. On the chart, it has set the immediate support level at 1,465.
In terms of individual share price actions, there should be interest in: (a) Boustead Holdings and BOUSTEAD HEAVY INDUSTRIES CORP []oration, after receiving a letter of intent from the Ministry of Defence to construct six patrol vessels; and (b) TRC Synergy, amid a media report saying that it has emerged as the frontrunner to clinch the LRT extension project.
Separately, Bursa Malaysia is due to announce its July to September quarterly financial results around noon.
OSK keeps 'buy' call on Public Bank
Stock Name: PBBANK
Company Name: PUBLIC BANK BHD
Research House: OSK
Public Bank Bhd's domestic collective impairment will continue to rise in tandem with its robust loans growth given its adoption of Bank Negara Malaysia's 1.5 per cent transitional collective impairment guidelines.
OSK Research said this would raise the group's already highly conservative loan loss reserves, it said. "The group's allowance for impairment increased 15.8 per cent quarter-to-quarter.
"It is largely due to higher collective impairment from it relatively strong domestic loans growth and lumpy provisions on selective domestic corporate accounts," it said in its research note today.
OSK said Public Bank has surpassed the RM1 billion mark by recording a pre-tax profit of RM1.05 billion in the third quarter ended Sept 30, 2010, from RM856.51 million a year ago.
For the nine months ended Sept 30, it recorded a net profit of RM2.20 billion, 20 per cent higher compared with RM1.84 billion in the corresponding period of 2009.
The research house expected the bank to record a stronger performance, underpinned by higher net interest income from a larger loans base and stable net interest margins.
It said it would maintain its 'buy' call and target price of RM14.20. -- Bernama
Company Name: PUBLIC BANK BHD
Research House: OSK
Public Bank Bhd's domestic collective impairment will continue to rise in tandem with its robust loans growth given its adoption of Bank Negara Malaysia's 1.5 per cent transitional collective impairment guidelines.
OSK Research said this would raise the group's already highly conservative loan loss reserves, it said. "The group's allowance for impairment increased 15.8 per cent quarter-to-quarter.
"It is largely due to higher collective impairment from it relatively strong domestic loans growth and lumpy provisions on selective domestic corporate accounts," it said in its research note today.
OSK said Public Bank has surpassed the RM1 billion mark by recording a pre-tax profit of RM1.05 billion in the third quarter ended Sept 30, 2010, from RM856.51 million a year ago.
For the nine months ended Sept 30, it recorded a net profit of RM2.20 billion, 20 per cent higher compared with RM1.84 billion in the corresponding period of 2009.
The research house expected the bank to record a stronger performance, underpinned by higher net interest income from a larger loans base and stable net interest margins.
It said it would maintain its 'buy' call and target price of RM14.20. -- Bernama
Sunday, October 17, 2010
Attention: GW Plastics, PLUS, MMC, Gamuda, O&G
KUALA LUMPUR:'' Key Asian markets are expected to start off the new week on Monday, Oct 18 on a stronger note after tech stocks pushed Wall Street to a higher close.
The announcement and firm commitment by the Malaysian Government to push ahead with several infrastructure projects would provide the impetus to infrastructure companies after the cautious trading session last Friday.
At Wall Street, stocks closed higher on Friday, after stronger earnings from Google sent the Nasdaq up over 1%. However, uncertainty surrounding major banks' exposure to foreclosure losses dragged the Dow lower.
The Dow Jones industrial average dropped 31.79 points, or 0.29%, to 11,062.78. The Standard & Poor's 500 gained 2.38 points, or 0.20%, to 1,176.19. The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 33.39 points, or 1.37%, to 2,468.77.
The S&P 500 hit a session high around 1,180 for a third straight day, a level that could become technical resistance moving forward, according to Reuters.
Stocks to watch on Monday include GW Plastics Holdings Bhd, PLUS EXPRESSWAYS BHD [], MMC Corp Bhd, GAMUDA BHD [] and oil and gas-related companies.
GW Plastics is one of the largest manufacturers of flexible plastic packaging in Malaysia, its public tranche was oversubscribed by 3.7 times. Its offer price was 76 sen and RHB Research accorded it a fair value of 90 sen.
PLUS resumes trading on Monday after it received an offer from UEM Group Bhd and the Employees Provident Fund (EPF) as joint offerors to acquire all its business and undertakings , including assets and liabilities for RM23 billion or RM4.60 per share cash.
UEM and EPF said in a joint statement on Friday, Oct 15'' they would set up a co-investment vehicle to make the offer to PLUS. The co-investment vehicle will be 51% owned by UEM Group, with the remaining 49% owned by EPF.
MMC Corp and Gamuda will be in focus after the firm commitment by the government to go ahead with the Mass Rapid Transit in Greater KL which will be implemented beginning 2011. This project will entail an estimated private investment of RM40 billion.
Oil and gas counters will see trading interest as the government stays focused on the sector. The government will allocate RM146 million to support the sector.
Among the projects to be carried out include the establishment of the oil field services and equipment sector in Johor with private investment of RM6 billion over 10 hyears.
Petronas will implement a regasification project with an investment of RM3 billion in Melaka which will be operational in 2012.
The announcement and firm commitment by the Malaysian Government to push ahead with several infrastructure projects would provide the impetus to infrastructure companies after the cautious trading session last Friday.
At Wall Street, stocks closed higher on Friday, after stronger earnings from Google sent the Nasdaq up over 1%. However, uncertainty surrounding major banks' exposure to foreclosure losses dragged the Dow lower.
The Dow Jones industrial average dropped 31.79 points, or 0.29%, to 11,062.78. The Standard & Poor's 500 gained 2.38 points, or 0.20%, to 1,176.19. The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 33.39 points, or 1.37%, to 2,468.77.
The S&P 500 hit a session high around 1,180 for a third straight day, a level that could become technical resistance moving forward, according to Reuters.
Stocks to watch on Monday include GW Plastics Holdings Bhd, PLUS EXPRESSWAYS BHD [], MMC Corp Bhd, GAMUDA BHD [] and oil and gas-related companies.
GW Plastics is one of the largest manufacturers of flexible plastic packaging in Malaysia, its public tranche was oversubscribed by 3.7 times. Its offer price was 76 sen and RHB Research accorded it a fair value of 90 sen.
PLUS resumes trading on Monday after it received an offer from UEM Group Bhd and the Employees Provident Fund (EPF) as joint offerors to acquire all its business and undertakings , including assets and liabilities for RM23 billion or RM4.60 per share cash.
UEM and EPF said in a joint statement on Friday, Oct 15'' they would set up a co-investment vehicle to make the offer to PLUS. The co-investment vehicle will be 51% owned by UEM Group, with the remaining 49% owned by EPF.
MMC Corp and Gamuda will be in focus after the firm commitment by the government to go ahead with the Mass Rapid Transit in Greater KL which will be implemented beginning 2011. This project will entail an estimated private investment of RM40 billion.
Oil and gas counters will see trading interest as the government stays focused on the sector. The government will allocate RM146 million to support the sector.
Among the projects to be carried out include the establishment of the oil field services and equipment sector in Johor with private investment of RM6 billion over 10 hyears.
Petronas will implement a regasification project with an investment of RM3 billion in Melaka which will be operational in 2012.
理财的习惯
正确理财的习惯，以下几点与你分享：
(一) 先储蓄后支出，养成编列家庭预算的习惯。
理财的必要条件，若没有养成储蓄的习惯，其他就不必谈了。年初时必须规划并编列预算，有家庭的就家庭预算，预算案中列出几大类就可如保险，车费(油，维修，车险等)，娱乐费等等。最为理想的是时常在储蓄户口里备有1至3个月的储备金，供紧急用途。
(二) 注意资产分配的效益，防止缴税流走的每一分钱。
高收入的家庭，可以均衡的分配，尽量的发挥最大的潜能，如购小孩的书本可以报所得税。任何能报所得税的项目可把它归给一方拥有最高收入者。
(三) 有效存钱得先偿还货款，即使是小额保险也需要理财规划。
如果你有货款，每月必要条件是先偿还这笔债，不可拖欠，避免无必要的利息。所以在还没决定使用分期付款前，要确保每月有足够的收入，建议它占你薪水30%以下。
(四) 进入复利的魔法世界，投资绝对不会有闪失的债务。
这因人而异，要看你对投资产品的风险，回酬高风险相对高。单位信托是一个不错的风险底的投资，也可以把一部分投资在债券(保资本)上。最简单的是定期存款，只是只有区区3到4%的利息。
(五) 30%的资金需投入3年以上的长期投资商品。
保险是其中一项长期的投资，还有是长期信托基金类如长期债券基金，Bond Fund等短期内价额起伏不大，非常稳定，一般上它们价格是很低，几乎没有危险性，比定期利息好。
(六) 投资要像开创事业一样认真对待，制定符合自己的战略。
不时要查看所投资的组合，不时可以给于调整，适合你对回酬的需求。如果在能力范围，可以买进刚推出的新信托基金，通常回酬高因为基金经理看到某些市场的利益。建议制定5至10年明确目标，设定投资的时间表，这样可以帮助你建立起财富。
MAHSING - Property sector driven by liquidity
Stock Name: MAHSING
Company Name: MAH SING GROUP BHD
Research House: KENANGA
Property sector
Maintain trading buy: Malaysia's residential property absorption rates are still below the eight-year average. Overhang rates in Selangor and Johor have improved due to stronger demand and a decreasing number of new launches. General affordability is still looking good. All price segments are reporting improved sales, driven by low interest rates, liquidity, innovative financing schemes, high savings rates, favourable lending environments, property as a preferred inflation hedge, EPF Account 2 monthly withdrawals for the repayment of one house and pent-up demand from the upgraders market. We expect the residential sector to register a new record sales level of RM52.9 billion (+26% year-on-year) in 2010. Large developers under our coverage, like S P Setia, IJM Land and Mah Sing Group, are reporting record high 2010 sales.
Malaysian house price index (HPI) trends indicate general residential prices have grown steadily and are moving in tandem with the consumer price index. But we do observe landed residential prices have gained momentum though we think it is confined to certain 'hot spots'. Anecdotal evidence indicates a growing divergence between primary and secondary market prices. Already, some slight price corrections are observed, which we think is healthy for the long run. Nonetheless, residential prices will continue to maintain their long-term uptrend since replacement costs continue to rise.
The Klang Valley commercial segment's looming incoming supply of circa 18 million sq ft in the medium term should limit rental growth. There is significant incoming supply for both retail and office space over next three or four years. Retail expects another three million sq ft supply in 2H10, or 13% of existing supply, and there will be 14.9 million sq ft of new office spaces in the next three or four years, equivalent to 21% of existing supply. This will add pressure on occupancy rates while potential tenants are spoilt for choice.
The government is mulling over capping loan-to-value (LTV) ratios for third property purchases onwards, progressive real property gains tax (RPGT) and cessation of international accounting standards (IAS) financings. We think implementation of progressive RPGT and cessation of IAS financings will be detrimental to property sales and sentiment.
Property stocks are 'sales driven'. Without strong headline numbers, it will be tough for property share prices to maintain the current momentum. Although 2010 residential sales value for Malaysia is estimated to be a 24% y-o-y increase, we expect 2011 sales to grow 7% y-o-y due to 2010's high base effect. Developers under our coverage are waiting for clarity in Budget 2011 before determining their FY2011/12 sales targets but maintain they will be able to sustain current levels.
Catalytic news flow and ample liquidity could push the Kuala Lumpur property price index (KLPRP) to peak cycle valuations of 1.3 times price-to-book value (PBV) from current mid-cycle 0.8 times PBV. Positive news flow (for example the MRT project) and high liquidity from the inflow of foreign funds, attracted to the stronger ringgit, are key share price drivers.
Maintain 'trading buy' until policy worries abate post Budget 2011. We are tending towards a possible upgrade for the sector to 'overweight' if developers under our coverage can target 15% to 20% y-o-y growth in FY2011/12 sales.
Stick to developers with high news flow, which provide excellent trading opportunities. Strong branding goes a long way as these developers are more equipped to grab market share in the event of softer demand and policy uncertainties. We maintain: (i) 'buy' on Mah Sing Group (target price: RM2.20); (ii) 'trading buy' on Eastern & Oriental (TP: RM1.26); (iii) 'trading buy' on Hunza Properties (TP: RM1.76); (iv) 'hold' on KLCC Property (TP: RM4.42 [RM3.36 if Lot C valued at net book value]). We are reviewing our calls on S P Setia (TP: RM4.78) and IJM Land (TP: RM2.80) pending Budget 2011and their guidance for FY2011/12 sales targets. ' Kenanga IB Research
Company Name: MAH SING GROUP BHD
Research House: KENANGA
Property sector
Maintain trading buy: Malaysia's residential property absorption rates are still below the eight-year average. Overhang rates in Selangor and Johor have improved due to stronger demand and a decreasing number of new launches. General affordability is still looking good. All price segments are reporting improved sales, driven by low interest rates, liquidity, innovative financing schemes, high savings rates, favourable lending environments, property as a preferred inflation hedge, EPF Account 2 monthly withdrawals for the repayment of one house and pent-up demand from the upgraders market. We expect the residential sector to register a new record sales level of RM52.9 billion (+26% year-on-year) in 2010. Large developers under our coverage, like S P Setia, IJM Land and Mah Sing Group, are reporting record high 2010 sales.
Malaysian house price index (HPI) trends indicate general residential prices have grown steadily and are moving in tandem with the consumer price index. But we do observe landed residential prices have gained momentum though we think it is confined to certain 'hot spots'. Anecdotal evidence indicates a growing divergence between primary and secondary market prices. Already, some slight price corrections are observed, which we think is healthy for the long run. Nonetheless, residential prices will continue to maintain their long-term uptrend since replacement costs continue to rise.
The Klang Valley commercial segment's looming incoming supply of circa 18 million sq ft in the medium term should limit rental growth. There is significant incoming supply for both retail and office space over next three or four years. Retail expects another three million sq ft supply in 2H10, or 13% of existing supply, and there will be 14.9 million sq ft of new office spaces in the next three or four years, equivalent to 21% of existing supply. This will add pressure on occupancy rates while potential tenants are spoilt for choice.
The government is mulling over capping loan-to-value (LTV) ratios for third property purchases onwards, progressive real property gains tax (RPGT) and cessation of international accounting standards (IAS) financings. We think implementation of progressive RPGT and cessation of IAS financings will be detrimental to property sales and sentiment.
Property stocks are 'sales driven'. Without strong headline numbers, it will be tough for property share prices to maintain the current momentum. Although 2010 residential sales value for Malaysia is estimated to be a 24% y-o-y increase, we expect 2011 sales to grow 7% y-o-y due to 2010's high base effect. Developers under our coverage are waiting for clarity in Budget 2011 before determining their FY2011/12 sales targets but maintain they will be able to sustain current levels.
Catalytic news flow and ample liquidity could push the Kuala Lumpur property price index (KLPRP) to peak cycle valuations of 1.3 times price-to-book value (PBV) from current mid-cycle 0.8 times PBV. Positive news flow (for example the MRT project) and high liquidity from the inflow of foreign funds, attracted to the stronger ringgit, are key share price drivers.
Maintain 'trading buy' until policy worries abate post Budget 2011. We are tending towards a possible upgrade for the sector to 'overweight' if developers under our coverage can target 15% to 20% y-o-y growth in FY2011/12 sales.
Stick to developers with high news flow, which provide excellent trading opportunities. Strong branding goes a long way as these developers are more equipped to grab market share in the event of softer demand and policy uncertainties. We maintain: (i) 'buy' on Mah Sing Group (target price: RM2.20); (ii) 'trading buy' on Eastern & Oriental (TP: RM1.26); (iii) 'trading buy' on Hunza Properties (TP: RM1.76); (iv) 'hold' on KLCC Property (TP: RM4.42 [RM3.36 if Lot C valued at net book value]). We are reviewing our calls on S P Setia (TP: RM4.78) and IJM Land (TP: RM2.80) pending Budget 2011and their guidance for FY2011/12 sales targets. ' Kenanga IB Research
KLCCP - Property sector driven by liquidity
Stock Name: KLCCP
Company Name: KLCC PROPERTY HOLDINGS BHD
Research House: KENANGA
Property sector
Maintain trading buy: Malaysia's residential property absorption rates are still below the eight-year average. Overhang rates in Selangor and Johor have improved due to stronger demand and a decreasing number of new launches. General affordability is still looking good. All price segments are reporting improved sales, driven by low interest rates, liquidity, innovative financing schemes, high savings rates, favourable lending environments, property as a preferred inflation hedge, EPF Account 2 monthly withdrawals for the repayment of one house and pent-up demand from the upgraders market. We expect the residential sector to register a new record sales level of RM52.9 billion (+26% year-on-year) in 2010. Large developers under our coverage, like S P Setia, IJM Land and Mah Sing Group, are reporting record high 2010 sales.
Malaysian house price index (HPI) trends indicate general residential prices have grown steadily and are moving in tandem with the consumer price index. But we do observe landed residential prices have gained momentum though we think it is confined to certain 'hot spots'. Anecdotal evidence indicates a growing divergence between primary and secondary market prices. Already, some slight price corrections are observed, which we think is healthy for the long run. Nonetheless, residential prices will continue to maintain their long-term uptrend since replacement costs continue to rise.
The Klang Valley commercial segment's looming incoming supply of circa 18 million sq ft in the medium term should limit rental growth. There is significant incoming supply for both retail and office space over next three or four years. Retail expects another three million sq ft supply in 2H10, or 13% of existing supply, and there will be 14.9 million sq ft of new office spaces in the next three or four years, equivalent to 21% of existing supply. This will add pressure on occupancy rates while potential tenants are spoilt for choice.
The government is mulling over capping loan-to-value (LTV) ratios for third property purchases onwards, progressive real property gains tax (RPGT) and cessation of international accounting standards (IAS) financings. We think implementation of progressive RPGT and cessation of IAS financings will be detrimental to property sales and sentiment.
Property stocks are 'sales driven'. Without strong headline numbers, it will be tough for property share prices to maintain the current momentum. Although 2010 residential sales value for Malaysia is estimated to be a 24% y-o-y increase, we expect 2011 sales to grow 7% y-o-y due to 2010's high base effect. Developers under our coverage are waiting for clarity in Budget 2011 before determining their FY2011/12 sales targets but maintain they will be able to sustain current levels.
Catalytic news flow and ample liquidity could push the Kuala Lumpur property price index (KLPRP) to peak cycle valuations of 1.3 times price-to-book value (PBV) from current mid-cycle 0.8 times PBV. Positive news flow (for example the MRT project) and high liquidity from the inflow of foreign funds, attracted to the stronger ringgit, are key share price drivers.
Maintain 'trading buy' until policy worries abate post Budget 2011. We are tending towards a possible upgrade for the sector to 'overweight' if developers under our coverage can target 15% to 20% y-o-y growth in FY2011/12 sales.
Stick to developers with high news flow, which provide excellent trading opportunities. Strong branding goes a long way as these developers are more equipped to grab market share in the event of softer demand and policy uncertainties. We maintain: (i) 'buy' on Mah Sing Group (target price: RM2.20); (ii) 'trading buy' on Eastern & Oriental (TP: RM1.26); (iii) 'trading buy' on Hunza Properties (TP: RM1.76); (iv) 'hold' on KLCC Property (TP: RM4.42 [RM3.36 if Lot C valued at net book value]). We are reviewing our calls on S P Setia (TP: RM4.78) and IJM Land (TP: RM2.80) pending Budget 2011and their guidance for FY2011/12 sales targets. ' Kenanga IB Research
Company Name: KLCC PROPERTY HOLDINGS BHD
Research House: KENANGA
Property sector
Maintain trading buy: Malaysia's residential property absorption rates are still below the eight-year average. Overhang rates in Selangor and Johor have improved due to stronger demand and a decreasing number of new launches. General affordability is still looking good. All price segments are reporting improved sales, driven by low interest rates, liquidity, innovative financing schemes, high savings rates, favourable lending environments, property as a preferred inflation hedge, EPF Account 2 monthly withdrawals for the repayment of one house and pent-up demand from the upgraders market. We expect the residential sector to register a new record sales level of RM52.9 billion (+26% year-on-year) in 2010. Large developers under our coverage, like S P Setia, IJM Land and Mah Sing Group, are reporting record high 2010 sales.
Malaysian house price index (HPI) trends indicate general residential prices have grown steadily and are moving in tandem with the consumer price index. But we do observe landed residential prices have gained momentum though we think it is confined to certain 'hot spots'. Anecdotal evidence indicates a growing divergence between primary and secondary market prices. Already, some slight price corrections are observed, which we think is healthy for the long run. Nonetheless, residential prices will continue to maintain their long-term uptrend since replacement costs continue to rise.
The Klang Valley commercial segment's looming incoming supply of circa 18 million sq ft in the medium term should limit rental growth. There is significant incoming supply for both retail and office space over next three or four years. Retail expects another three million sq ft supply in 2H10, or 13% of existing supply, and there will be 14.9 million sq ft of new office spaces in the next three or four years, equivalent to 21% of existing supply. This will add pressure on occupancy rates while potential tenants are spoilt for choice.
The government is mulling over capping loan-to-value (LTV) ratios for third property purchases onwards, progressive real property gains tax (RPGT) and cessation of international accounting standards (IAS) financings. We think implementation of progressive RPGT and cessation of IAS financings will be detrimental to property sales and sentiment.
Property stocks are 'sales driven'. Without strong headline numbers, it will be tough for property share prices to maintain the current momentum. Although 2010 residential sales value for Malaysia is estimated to be a 24% y-o-y increase, we expect 2011 sales to grow 7% y-o-y due to 2010's high base effect. Developers under our coverage are waiting for clarity in Budget 2011 before determining their FY2011/12 sales targets but maintain they will be able to sustain current levels.
Catalytic news flow and ample liquidity could push the Kuala Lumpur property price index (KLPRP) to peak cycle valuations of 1.3 times price-to-book value (PBV) from current mid-cycle 0.8 times PBV. Positive news flow (for example the MRT project) and high liquidity from the inflow of foreign funds, attracted to the stronger ringgit, are key share price drivers.
Maintain 'trading buy' until policy worries abate post Budget 2011. We are tending towards a possible upgrade for the sector to 'overweight' if developers under our coverage can target 15% to 20% y-o-y growth in FY2011/12 sales.
Stick to developers with high news flow, which provide excellent trading opportunities. Strong branding goes a long way as these developers are more equipped to grab market share in the event of softer demand and policy uncertainties. We maintain: (i) 'buy' on Mah Sing Group (target price: RM2.20); (ii) 'trading buy' on Eastern & Oriental (TP: RM1.26); (iii) 'trading buy' on Hunza Properties (TP: RM1.76); (iv) 'hold' on KLCC Property (TP: RM4.42 [RM3.36 if Lot C valued at net book value]). We are reviewing our calls on S P Setia (TP: RM4.78) and IJM Land (TP: RM2.80) pending Budget 2011and their guidance for FY2011/12 sales targets. ' Kenanga IB Research
Friday, October 15, 2010
AZRB - OSK Research: Buy on AZRB, TP RM1.45
Stock Name: AZRB
Company Name: AHMAD ZAKI RESOURCES BHD
Research House: OSK
KUALA LUMPUR: OSK Research expects AZRB's earnings to accelerate following a record RM876m worth of jobs secured last year.
The research house said on Friday, Oct 15 that AZRB remains a key beneficiary of government jobs.
'We see a slew of potential jobs from the Govt, private sector and overseas in the coming months. There is also potential for recurring income assets via the UIA Hospital and EKVE,' it said.
OSK Research's FY11-12 earnings are raised by 5%-7%, which pushes up its TP to RM1.45 (45% upside). Given the lagging share price performance YTD, it expects AZRB to catch up.
Company Name: AHMAD ZAKI RESOURCES BHD
Research House: OSK
KUALA LUMPUR: OSK Research expects AZRB's earnings to accelerate following a record RM876m worth of jobs secured last year.
The research house said on Friday, Oct 15 that AZRB remains a key beneficiary of government jobs.
'We see a slew of potential jobs from the Govt, private sector and overseas in the coming months. There is also potential for recurring income assets via the UIA Hospital and EKVE,' it said.
OSK Research's FY11-12 earnings are raised by 5%-7%, which pushes up its TP to RM1.45 (45% upside). Given the lagging share price performance YTD, it expects AZRB to catch up.
DIGI - AmResearch reaffirms Hold on DiGi
Stock Name: DIGI
Company Name: DIGI.COM BHD
Research House: AMMB
KUALA LUMPUR: AmResearch reaffirms its HOLD on DIGI.COM BHD [], pending the release of its 3Q10 results at the end of the month.
Its fair value of RM22.60 a share ' based on a DCF valuation method ' hinges on its mobile broadband and the iPhone to drive revenue generation.
'We are looking at a net profit for the quarter in the range of RM270mil to RM275mil, or 34.7sen/share to 35.3sen/share, making our full-year expectation of RM1.05bil or 135.5sen/share. DiGi posted a net profit of RM556mil (71.6sen/share) in 1HFY10,' it said on Friday, Oct 15.
AmResearch said at the topline, it expects the strength to spill over to the 4QFY10, following what it believes has been a strong response to the iPhone 4 launch.
It said 3QFY10 lacked any exciting development to have a significant jump from the previous quarter. Revenue should register around RM1.29bil to RM1.3bil (to reach our full-year expectation of RM5.07bil).
Company Name: DIGI.COM BHD
Research House: AMMB
KUALA LUMPUR: AmResearch reaffirms its HOLD on DIGI.COM BHD [], pending the release of its 3Q10 results at the end of the month.
Its fair value of RM22.60 a share ' based on a DCF valuation method ' hinges on its mobile broadband and the iPhone to drive revenue generation.
'We are looking at a net profit for the quarter in the range of RM270mil to RM275mil, or 34.7sen/share to 35.3sen/share, making our full-year expectation of RM1.05bil or 135.5sen/share. DiGi posted a net profit of RM556mil (71.6sen/share) in 1HFY10,' it said on Friday, Oct 15.
AmResearch said at the topline, it expects the strength to spill over to the 4QFY10, following what it believes has been a strong response to the iPhone 4 launch.
It said 3QFY10 lacked any exciting development to have a significant jump from the previous quarter. Revenue should register around RM1.29bil to RM1.3bil (to reach our full-year expectation of RM5.07bil).
IJMLAND - AmResearch ups IJM Land FV to RM3.88
Stock Name: IJMLAND
Company Name: IJM LAND BERHAD
Research House: AMMB
KUALA LUMPUR: AmResearch has raised its fair value on IJM Land Bhd to RM3.88/share from RM3.60/share while maintaining its BUY on the stock.
'This is based on an unchanged 10% discount to our upward revised fully-diluted (FD) NAV of RM4.31/share (from RM4.00/share previously). The higher FD NAV stems from an estimated accretion of RM0.31/share (50% stake) from the acquisition of 2,000 acres of land at Canal City (GDV: RM6.5bil),' said the research house on Friday, Oct 15.
AmResearch said the significance of this deal is its attractive pricing, sheer size and immediate development potential given a large residential catchment.
Stemming from other value propositions, discount to NAV should narrow as IJM Land achieves its long-overdue status as a core portfolio holding.
Company Name: IJM LAND BERHAD
Research House: AMMB
KUALA LUMPUR: AmResearch has raised its fair value on IJM Land Bhd to RM3.88/share from RM3.60/share while maintaining its BUY on the stock.
'This is based on an unchanged 10% discount to our upward revised fully-diluted (FD) NAV of RM4.31/share (from RM4.00/share previously). The higher FD NAV stems from an estimated accretion of RM0.31/share (50% stake) from the acquisition of 2,000 acres of land at Canal City (GDV: RM6.5bil),' said the research house on Friday, Oct 15.
AmResearch said the significance of this deal is its attractive pricing, sheer size and immediate development potential given a large residential catchment.
Stemming from other value propositions, discount to NAV should narrow as IJM Land achieves its long-overdue status as a core portfolio holding.
Mandarin Version - Market Technical Reading : Extension Of Buying Momentum Upon Removal Of 1,500...
Local Market Leads:
♦ The FBM KLCI reversed from the early run-up to above the psychological level of 1,500 on heavy profit-taking pressure, partly due to refreshed cautiousness ahead of the 2011 Budget announcement on Friday.
♦ Earlier, investors continued to drive the market higher, thanks to the overnight gains in the US markets amid favourable earnings from US key corporates. ♦ But just after the FBM KLCI advanced to a high of 1,503.82, profit-taking activities began to step in, amid the afternoon reversal in some regional markets from their early gains.
♦ At the close, the local benchmark eased by 0.59 pt or 0.04% to 1,496.38, dogged by strong selldown on heavyweights Genting (-26sen) and CIMB (-7sen).
♦ Daily turnover continued to increase to 1.27bn shares, from the 1.20bn shares a day ago. The market breadth has, however, turned negative, as losers outpaced gainers by 455 to 348.
Mandarin Version - Market Technical Reading : Extension Of Buying Momentum Upon Removal Of 1,500...-15/10/2010
♦ The FBM KLCI reversed from the early run-up to above the psychological level of 1,500 on heavy profit-taking pressure, partly due to refreshed cautiousness ahead of the 2011 Budget announcement on Friday.
♦ Earlier, investors continued to drive the market higher, thanks to the overnight gains in the US markets amid favourable earnings from US key corporates. ♦ But just after the FBM KLCI advanced to a high of 1,503.82, profit-taking activities began to step in, amid the afternoon reversal in some regional markets from their early gains.
♦ At the close, the local benchmark eased by 0.59 pt or 0.04% to 1,496.38, dogged by strong selldown on heavyweights Genting (-26sen) and CIMB (-7sen).
♦ Daily turnover continued to increase to 1.27bn shares, from the 1.20bn shares a day ago. The market breadth has, however, turned negative, as losers outpaced gainers by 455 to 348.
Mandarin Version - Market Technical Reading : Extension Of Buying Momentum Upon Removal Of 1,500...-15/10/2010
KENCANA - Kencana still a 'buy'
Stock Name: KENCANA
Company Name: KENCANA PETROLEUM BHD
Research House: AMMB
Kencana Petroleum Bhd is poised to ride on an up-cycle in new domestic oil and gas contract rollouts coupled with the listing of MISC Bhd's Malaysia Marine & Heavy Engineering Bhd (MHB).
In a report today, AmResearch Sdn Bhd said since the beginning of the year, Kencana has secured a total of RM681 million in new contracts, with a outstanding order book at RM1.6 billion.
"Based on our estimates, we expect Petroliam Nasional Bhd to award up to RM10 billion new contracts over the next six months."
Yesterday, Kencana secured a contract for the provision of single buoy mooring overhaul from Petronas Carigali for its Sarawak operations.
The one-off RM16.4 million contract is expected to commence by Jan 2011.
AmResearch said the government also planned to groom local fabricators to be able to effectively compete regional.
"This could mean that merger and acquisition could resurface for the company, further catalysing a re-rating on the stock," it said.
The research house said it would maintain a "buy" call on the ompany with an unchanged fair value of RM2 per share.
Meanwhile, OSK Research said it would also maintain its "buy" call on the company with a higher target price at RM2.06.
"Currently, the stock remains our top pick for the oil and gas sector as we like its strong delivery track record as well as strong orderbook and tenderbook, which total RM1.6 billion and RM2 billion respectively," it said. -- Bernama
Company Name: KENCANA PETROLEUM BHD
Research House: AMMB
Kencana Petroleum Bhd is poised to ride on an up-cycle in new domestic oil and gas contract rollouts coupled with the listing of MISC Bhd's Malaysia Marine & Heavy Engineering Bhd (MHB).
In a report today, AmResearch Sdn Bhd said since the beginning of the year, Kencana has secured a total of RM681 million in new contracts, with a outstanding order book at RM1.6 billion.
"Based on our estimates, we expect Petroliam Nasional Bhd to award up to RM10 billion new contracts over the next six months."
Yesterday, Kencana secured a contract for the provision of single buoy mooring overhaul from Petronas Carigali for its Sarawak operations.
The one-off RM16.4 million contract is expected to commence by Jan 2011.
AmResearch said the government also planned to groom local fabricators to be able to effectively compete regional.
"This could mean that merger and acquisition could resurface for the company, further catalysing a re-rating on the stock," it said.
The research house said it would maintain a "buy" call on the ompany with an unchanged fair value of RM2 per share.
Meanwhile, OSK Research said it would also maintain its "buy" call on the company with a higher target price at RM2.06.
"Currently, the stock remains our top pick for the oil and gas sector as we like its strong delivery track record as well as strong orderbook and tenderbook, which total RM1.6 billion and RM2 billion respectively," it said. -- Bernama
Tuesday, October 12, 2010
WCT - AmResearch upgrades WCT to Buy
Stock Name: WCT
Company Name: WCT BHD
Research House: AMMB
KUALA LUMPUR: AmResearch is upgrading its call on WCT BHD [] (WCT) from Hold to a Buy - with a higher fair value of RM3.95/share as it rolls forward its valuation base to FY11F.
The research house said on Tuesday, Oct 12 that despite the recent run-up in its share price, WCT's FY11F-12F valuations remain undemanding at 11 times to 14times - and trades at a 24%-47% and 30%-45% discount to IJM and Gamuda, respectively.
The stock's foreign shareholding (11%) also lags its two larger peers (more than 30%).
The company last Friday announced that it had secured a RM486 million BOT concession contract for the Integrated Complex at the new low cost carrier terminal (KLIA2) in Sepang under a 70:30 JV with Malaysia Airports Holdings Bhd (MAHB).
'The latest deal could herald the start of a re-acceleration in order flows in coming months - where WCT has maintained its year-end order book target of RM2 billion. We see several project catalysts unfolding in the near-term,' it said.
Company Name: WCT BHD
Research House: AMMB
KUALA LUMPUR: AmResearch is upgrading its call on WCT BHD [] (WCT) from Hold to a Buy - with a higher fair value of RM3.95/share as it rolls forward its valuation base to FY11F.
The research house said on Tuesday, Oct 12 that despite the recent run-up in its share price, WCT's FY11F-12F valuations remain undemanding at 11 times to 14times - and trades at a 24%-47% and 30%-45% discount to IJM and Gamuda, respectively.
The stock's foreign shareholding (11%) also lags its two larger peers (more than 30%).
The company last Friday announced that it had secured a RM486 million BOT concession contract for the Integrated Complex at the new low cost carrier terminal (KLIA2) in Sepang under a 70:30 JV with Malaysia Airports Holdings Bhd (MAHB).
'The latest deal could herald the start of a re-acceleration in order flows in coming months - where WCT has maintained its year-end order book target of RM2 billion. We see several project catalysts unfolding in the near-term,' it said.
工作薪水高，就代表你比别人厉害？？？
小强是一名普通员工，薪金2000元，小钟是某跨国际公司的经理，薪金4000元，这样看来，谁都认为小钟最有钱，但事实是这样的吗？
小强：
工作天：5天
工作时间：8am - 5pm(8小时，扣除1小时午餐时间)
时薪：
2000/(20*8) = 2000/160 = 12.50
小钟：
工作天：6天
工作时间：8am - 10pm(13小时，扣除1小时午餐时间)
时薪：
4000/(24*13) = 4000/312 = 12.82
这样计算出来的话，基本上两人的时薪相差非常少，只有区区的0.32，
这样你还敢和被人说，我应该是这样的工钱，因为我值得（贵）？
好好想想吧！
大多数的人都追求着高薪，他们认为只要高薪，那么就会更快变成有钱，
但无奈的是，看了以上的例子，小钟的确是比小强高薪，但小钟付出了那么多时间，
其实只比小强多那区区的0.32，值得吗？
工薪收入往往都不是最好的收入，
被动收入才是我们所该追求的，共勉之。。。
小强：
工作天：5天
工作时间：8am - 5pm(8小时，扣除1小时午餐时间)
时薪：
2000/(20*8) = 2000/160 = 12.50
小钟：
工作天：6天
工作时间：8am - 10pm(13小时，扣除1小时午餐时间)
时薪：
4000/(24*13) = 4000/312 = 12.82
这样计算出来的话，基本上两人的时薪相差非常少，只有区区的0.32，
这样你还敢和被人说，我应该是这样的工钱，因为我值得（贵）？
好好想想吧！
大多数的人都追求着高薪，他们认为只要高薪，那么就会更快变成有钱，
但无奈的是，看了以上的例子，小钟的确是比小强高薪，但小钟付出了那么多时间，
其实只比小强多那区区的0.32，值得吗？
工薪收入往往都不是最好的收入，
被动收入才是我们所该追求的，共勉之。。。
Monday, October 11, 2010
發展商冀提供獎掖 建議首次購屋獲5%補助金
（吉隆坡11日訊）馬來西亞房地產發展商會（REHDA）冀望為實現居者有其屋目標，政府應給予首次購屋者5%或頂限2萬5000令吉的購屋補助金（First Time Home Buyers Grant）。
該會會長拿督任廣財回應《中國報》詢問時指出，隨著經濟復甦，房地產價格回揚，民眾期待在來臨的預算案中，能提出“經濟實惠”的獎掖配套。
房貸利息應扣稅
他說，這些獎掖項目包括印花稅豁免、房貸利率調降，律師手續費和房貸意外保險（MRTA）折扣。
“相關的舉措，都有助催化底端的40%民眾實現居者有其屋，或“一家一屋”概念。”
另外，該會也認為，25萬令吉或以下房產貸款利息若能納入個人稅的可扣稅項目中，將能減輕購屋者的稅務負擔。
經濟策劃單位（EPU）在今年1月1日將外國投資者購屋底限，從25萬令吉拉高至50萬令吉。
他指出，會員進行討論后認為，因地理環境和需求的差異，外國投資者購屋底限應細分為三層，分為高城市化、城市化，及微城市化地區。
“高城市化投資底限可設在50萬令吉、城市化地區為25萬令吉，微城市化地區則訂在15萬令吉。”
他說，以區域細分底限，讓業者可在不損害本地購屋者利益下，可更實際和有效地吸引不同需求的外國投資者前來。
在吸引外國投資者方面，他認為，政府應在焦點放在大馬品牌建立上，公共交通、基礎設施、城鎮規劃以及治安環境上，也應做出改善和提升，才可提高大馬房地產在國際市場的評價。
至于在明年極大可能調漲的基本借貸率，他認為，大馬目前仍處低水平，業者可承擔的漲幅水平為5%至6%。
促廢除強制建低價土著單位
大馬房地產發展商會呼籲政府檢討現有的土著房屋發展固打制度，並建議廢除強制建設低價土著單位的規定，將低價房屋發展補助資金轉往價值較高中低價房屋發展。
任廣財說，第十大馬計劃下，政府給予月薪低于2500令吉的7萬8000間低價公共房屋發展計劃資助經費，可轉至發展中低價房屋，提高購屋者的房地產價值。
截至今年首季，全國滯銷的房地產多達2萬3164個單位，其中大部分為偏遠地區的低價房屋計劃。
他指出，業者也面臨許多成本負擔，其中包括物業轉讓費用。
他說，物業轉讓費用轉讓因無明文訂價，因此難免出現歧見，該會認為此費用相當昂貴，尤其是在次級市場，因此應將收費標準化。
[中国报]
該會會長拿督任廣財回應《中國報》詢問時指出，隨著經濟復甦，房地產價格回揚，民眾期待在來臨的預算案中，能提出“經濟實惠”的獎掖配套。
房貸利息應扣稅
他說，這些獎掖項目包括印花稅豁免、房貸利率調降，律師手續費和房貸意外保險（MRTA）折扣。
“相關的舉措，都有助催化底端的40%民眾實現居者有其屋，或“一家一屋”概念。”
另外，該會也認為，25萬令吉或以下房產貸款利息若能納入個人稅的可扣稅項目中，將能減輕購屋者的稅務負擔。
經濟策劃單位（EPU）在今年1月1日將外國投資者購屋底限，從25萬令吉拉高至50萬令吉。
他指出，會員進行討論后認為，因地理環境和需求的差異，外國投資者購屋底限應細分為三層，分為高城市化、城市化，及微城市化地區。
“高城市化投資底限可設在50萬令吉、城市化地區為25萬令吉，微城市化地區則訂在15萬令吉。”
他說，以區域細分底限，讓業者可在不損害本地購屋者利益下，可更實際和有效地吸引不同需求的外國投資者前來。
在吸引外國投資者方面，他認為，政府應在焦點放在大馬品牌建立上，公共交通、基礎設施、城鎮規劃以及治安環境上，也應做出改善和提升，才可提高大馬房地產在國際市場的評價。
至于在明年極大可能調漲的基本借貸率，他認為，大馬目前仍處低水平，業者可承擔的漲幅水平為5%至6%。
促廢除強制建低價土著單位
大馬房地產發展商會呼籲政府檢討現有的土著房屋發展固打制度，並建議廢除強制建設低價土著單位的規定，將低價房屋發展補助資金轉往價值較高中低價房屋發展。
任廣財說，第十大馬計劃下，政府給予月薪低于2500令吉的7萬8000間低價公共房屋發展計劃資助經費，可轉至發展中低價房屋，提高購屋者的房地產價值。
截至今年首季，全國滯銷的房地產多達2萬3164個單位，其中大部分為偏遠地區的低價房屋計劃。
他指出，業者也面臨許多成本負擔，其中包括物業轉讓費用。
他說，物業轉讓費用轉讓因無明文訂價，因此難免出現歧見，該會認為此費用相當昂貴，尤其是在次級市場，因此應將收費標準化。
[中国报]
AirAsia Berhad : Current Congestion An Opportunity To Bargain Buy…
AirAsia is building another support base at above RM2.14. AirAsia began
the current uptrend since Jul 2010, when it rebounded across the key level of
RM1.28. Its uptrend accelerated when it finally confirmed the removal of the
RM1.66 resistane level in Sep. The stock hit a fresh historical high of RM2.26 in
late Sep, before encountering mild profit-taking activities in recent sessions.
Although it ended slightly off with a negative candle on Friday, it still closed at
above the key level of RM2.14, and near the 10-day SMA of RM2.17.
Mandarin Version : AirAsia Berhad : Current Congestion An Opportunity To Bargain Buy… - 11/10/2010
the current uptrend since Jul 2010, when it rebounded across the key level of
RM1.28. Its uptrend accelerated when it finally confirmed the removal of the
RM1.66 resistane level in Sep. The stock hit a fresh historical high of RM2.26 in
late Sep, before encountering mild profit-taking activities in recent sessions.
Although it ended slightly off with a negative candle on Friday, it still closed at
above the key level of RM2.14, and near the 10-day SMA of RM2.17.
Mandarin Version : AirAsia Berhad : Current Congestion An Opportunity To Bargain Buy… - 11/10/2010
Commodities and Currencies : CPO May See A Fresh Chart Breakout Soon…
Light Sweet Crude Oil futures (Crude)
♦ The US Light Sweet Crude Oil futures staged a further
rally last week, and hit a fresh five-month high of
US$84.43 on last Thursday
Mandarin Version : Commodities & Currencies : CPO May See A Fresh Chart Breakout Soon… - 11/10/2010
♦ The US Light Sweet Crude Oil futures staged a further
rally last week, and hit a fresh five-month high of
US$84.43 on last Thursday
Mandarin Version : Commodities & Currencies : CPO May See A Fresh Chart Breakout Soon… - 11/10/2010
Saturday, October 9, 2010
理财五大定律和误区
什么叫理财？就是对个人、家庭财富进行科学、有计划和系统的管理、安排，简单说，是关于赚钱、花钱和省钱的学问。有句话说"你不理财，财不理你"，你知道吗？每月的工资，零存整取与活期储蓄，一年下来利息相差2.375倍。
聪明理财五大定律
这几条理财定律你不妨看看：
4321定律：家庭资产合理配置比例是家庭收入的40%用于供房及其他方面投资，30%用于家庭生活开支，20%用于银行存款以备应急之需，10%用于保险。
72定律：不拿回利息利滚利存款，本金增值一倍所需要的时间等于72除以年收益率。比如，如果在银行存10万元，年利率是2%，每年利滚利，多少年能变20万元？答案是36年。
80定律：股票占总资产的合理比重等于80减去年龄的得数添上一个百分号(%)。比如，30岁时股票可占总资产50%，50岁时则占30%为宜。
家庭保险双十定律：家庭保险设定的恰当额度应为家庭年收入的10倍，保费支出的恰当比重应为家庭年收入的10%。
房贷三一定律：每月房贷金额以不超过家庭当月总收入三分之一为宜。
走出这些理财误区
误区一，理财是有钱人的事。错。
工薪家庭更需要理财，与有钱人相比，他们面临更大的教育、养老、医疗、购房等现实压力，更需要理财增长财富。
误区二，有了理财就不用保险。错。
保险的主要功能是保障，对于家庭而言，没有保险的理财规划是无本之木。
误区三，投资操作"短、平、快"。错。
不要以为短线频繁操作一定挣钱多。
误区四，盲目跟风，冲动购买。错。
在最热门的时候进入，往往是最高价的投资，要理性投资，独立思考，货比三家。
误区五，过度集中投资和过度分散投资。错。
前者无法分散风险，后者使投资追踪困难，无法提高投资效率。
误区六，敢输不敢赢。一涨就卖，越跌越不卖。错。
用于理财的可投资品种主要包括两类，金融类的投资品种主要有：储蓄、证券、基金、保险、期货、黄金、信托。非金融类的投资品种主要有：房地产、实业投资、拍卖、典当、收藏等。 不同阶段理财要点
专家将人生分为理财五阶段：
单身期 2-5年，参加工作至结婚，收入较低花销大，这时期的理财重点不在获利而在积累经验。理财建议：60%风险大、长期回报较高的股票、股票型基金或外汇、期货等金融品种，30%定期储蓄、债券或债券型基金等较安全的投资工具，10%活期储蓄以备不时之需；
家庭形成期 1-5年，结婚生子，经济收入增加生活稳定，重点合理安排家庭建设支出。理财建议：50%股票或成长型基金，35%债券、保险，15%活期储蓄，保险可选缴费少的定期险、意外险、健康险；
子女教育期 20年，孩子教育、生活费用猛增。理财建议：40%股票或成长型基金，但需更多规避风险，40%存款或国债用于教育费用，10%保险，10%家庭紧急备用金；
家庭成熟期 15年，子女工作至本人退休，人生、收入高峰期，适合积累，重点可扩大投资。理财建议：50%股票或股票类基金，40%定期储蓄、债券及保险，10%家庭紧急备用金。接近退休时用于风险投资的比例应减少，保险偏重养老、健康、重大疾病险，制订合适的养老计划；
退休期 投资和消费都较保守，理财原则身体健康第一、财富第二，主要以稳健、安全、保值为目的。理财建议：10%股票或股票类基金，50%定期储蓄、债券，40%活期储蓄，资产较多者可合法避税将资产转移至下一代。
Thursday, October 7, 2010
Analysis The World Economy... Begin of Oct
Japan’s Latest Monetary Easing Move Stirred Up Currency Tensions
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) eased its policy further by lowering the benchmark interest rate to a range of 0-0.1%, from
the previous 0.1% target. It also pledged to keep the key policy rate at virtually zero until the end of deflation is in
sight. This is a move toward the zero-interest rate policy, where the BOJ introduced it for the first time in 1999 and
again in 2001. In addition, the BOJ said that it will create a ¥5 trn (US$60bn) fund through the expansion of its balance
sheet to buy government bonds and other assets. While some politicians had urged the central bank to boost buying
of government securities, the bank kept the target for monthly purchases of government bonds at ¥1.8 trn. It said that
the debt bought through the new facility would not be considered as applying to the BOJ’s rule for keeping its holdings
at less than the value of banknotes outstanding. This is to avoid fanning market concerns that the BOJ is handing the
government a blank cheque, possibly undermining long-term bond credibility.
Analysis The World Economy... - 07/10/2010
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) eased its policy further by lowering the benchmark interest rate to a range of 0-0.1%, from
the previous 0.1% target. It also pledged to keep the key policy rate at virtually zero until the end of deflation is in
sight. This is a move toward the zero-interest rate policy, where the BOJ introduced it for the first time in 1999 and
again in 2001. In addition, the BOJ said that it will create a ¥5 trn (US$60bn) fund through the expansion of its balance
sheet to buy government bonds and other assets. While some politicians had urged the central bank to boost buying
of government securities, the bank kept the target for monthly purchases of government bonds at ¥1.8 trn. It said that
the debt bought through the new facility would not be considered as applying to the BOJ’s rule for keeping its holdings
at less than the value of banknotes outstanding. This is to avoid fanning market concerns that the BOJ is handing the
government a blank cheque, possibly undermining long-term bond credibility.
Analysis The World Economy... - 07/10/2010
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
打工族RM3000理财法
作为刚工作不久、工资在3000元左右的新人来说，金钱是有限的，工资是菲薄的，精力是旺盛的，而品牌衣服、化妆品（特别对于女性），各种需要花钱的爱好，还有朋友的约会、时尚书籍、CD等等都是触目可及、活色生香的。怎样既享受生活、又收支平衡呢？职场新人可以把支出分成三大部分：
生活费占收入1/3（这个数字还行）
首先，拿出每个月必须支付的生活费。如房租、水电、通讯费、柴米油盐等，这部分约占收入三分之一。它们是你生活中不可或缺的部分，满足你最基本的物质需求。离开了它们，你就会像鱼儿离开了水一样无法生活，所以无论如何，请你先从收入中抽出这部分，不要动用。（有个说法是把必花的预算放信封里，用的话现拿，只许剩余，严禁超出。。。。这个方法可以用用的说~）
储蓄占收入1/3
其次，是自己用来储蓄的部分，也约占收入的三分之一。每次存钱的时候，都会很有成就感，好像安全感又多了几分。但是到了月底的时候，往往就变成了泡沫经济：存进去的大部分又取出来了，而且是不动声色，好像细雨润物一样就不见了，散布于林林总总自己喜欢的衣饰、杂志或朋友聚会上。这个时候，你要大声对自己讲：“我要投资自己的明天，我要保护好自己的财产。”起码，你的存储能保证你3个月的基本生活。要知道，现在很多公司动辄减薪裁员。如果你一点储蓄都没有，一旦工作发生了变动，你将会是非常被动的。而且这3个月的收入可以成为你的定心丸，实在工作干得不开心了，你可以无需再忍，愤而挥袖离职，想想是多么大快人心的事啊。所以，无论如何，请为自己留条退路。（零存整取的定期呗~）
活动资金占收入1/3
剩下的这部分钱，约占收入的三分之一。可以根据自己当时的生活目标，侧重地花在不同的地方。譬如五一、十一可以安排自己旅游；服装打折时可以购进自己心仪已久的牌子货；还有平时必不可少的购买CD、朋友聚会的开销。这样花起来心里有数，不会一下子把钱都用完。最关键的是，即使一发薪水就把这部分用完了，也可当是一次教训，可以惩罚自己一个月内什么都不能再干了(就当是收入全部支出了吧)，印象会很深刻而且有效。
最重要的是开源（兼职~~）
当然我们应该知道节流只是我们生活工作的一部分，就像大厦的基层一样。一旦脱离了菜鸟身份，对于职场中的各位同仁来讲，最重要的是怎样财源滚滚、开源有道，为了达到一个新目标，你必须不断进步以求发展，培养自己的实力以求进步，这才是真正的生财之道。
摘自： http://whiteflying.blogbus.com/logs/50857212.html
生活费占收入1/3（这个数字还行）
首先，拿出每个月必须支付的生活费。如房租、水电、通讯费、柴米油盐等，这部分约占收入三分之一。它们是你生活中不可或缺的部分，满足你最基本的物质需求。离开了它们，你就会像鱼儿离开了水一样无法生活，所以无论如何，请你先从收入中抽出这部分，不要动用。（有个说法是把必花的预算放信封里，用的话现拿，只许剩余，严禁超出。。。。这个方法可以用用的说~）
储蓄占收入1/3
其次，是自己用来储蓄的部分，也约占收入的三分之一。每次存钱的时候，都会很有成就感，好像安全感又多了几分。但是到了月底的时候，往往就变成了泡沫经济：存进去的大部分又取出来了，而且是不动声色，好像细雨润物一样就不见了，散布于林林总总自己喜欢的衣饰、杂志或朋友聚会上。这个时候，你要大声对自己讲：“我要投资自己的明天，我要保护好自己的财产。”起码，你的存储能保证你3个月的基本生活。要知道，现在很多公司动辄减薪裁员。如果你一点储蓄都没有，一旦工作发生了变动，你将会是非常被动的。而且这3个月的收入可以成为你的定心丸，实在工作干得不开心了，你可以无需再忍，愤而挥袖离职，想想是多么大快人心的事啊。所以，无论如何，请为自己留条退路。（零存整取的定期呗~）
活动资金占收入1/3
剩下的这部分钱，约占收入的三分之一。可以根据自己当时的生活目标，侧重地花在不同的地方。譬如五一、十一可以安排自己旅游；服装打折时可以购进自己心仪已久的牌子货；还有平时必不可少的购买CD、朋友聚会的开销。这样花起来心里有数，不会一下子把钱都用完。最关键的是，即使一发薪水就把这部分用完了，也可当是一次教训，可以惩罚自己一个月内什么都不能再干了(就当是收入全部支出了吧)，印象会很深刻而且有效。
最重要的是开源（兼职~~）
当然我们应该知道节流只是我们生活工作的一部分，就像大厦的基层一样。一旦脱离了菜鸟身份，对于职场中的各位同仁来讲，最重要的是怎样财源滚滚、开源有道，为了达到一个新目标，你必须不断进步以求发展，培养自己的实力以求进步，这才是真正的生财之道。
摘自： http://whiteflying.blogbus.com/logs/50857212.html
Saturday, October 2, 2010
走出退休理财的三大误区
晚年时也不妨作一些大胆的尝试。
别搞错了：退休后你仍将有大笔开销。那么怎样才能高枕无忧呢？千万别相信老朋友和家人们的传统观念。
他们的很多建议不只是错误的，而且蕴藏着巨大的风险。下面我们就列举三个传统观念，并将其一一攻破。
1) 生命短暂
退休的人在安排自己的生活时可能很少考虑生命的长短，然而当他们作出财务决策时，却总是好像过了今天就没有明天一样。60几岁的人经常会过于担心他们在退休后不久就会去世，这往往导致他们作出愚蠢的决定。
可能最愚蠢的做法就是从社会保障基金中提前支取退休金。你可以在62岁至70岁之间开始提取你的退休金，提取的越早，每月得到的金额就越少。尽管如此，2004年仍有54%的女性选择在62岁支取退休金，在这一年龄支取退休金的男性比例为49%。
没错，如果你的健康状况很差，早点支取退休金或许不失为明智之举。但即便如此，你也应该考虑一下配偶的预期寿命。为什么？如果你是家庭收入的主要创造者，你的配偶在你过世后依然可以领取丧偶退休金──所以晚些提取对配偶大有好处。
但如果你是单身，又不能确定是否长寿，你应该推迟提取还是早些提取呢？毫无疑问，也应该推迟提取。
没错，如果你推迟提取退休金，又在退休不久后去世，你从社保基金中享受到的福利就寥寥无几了。但是与活着但却过着拮 的生活相比，简简单单地死去也没什么大不了。
不幸的是，如果你活得很长，但却早早地用光了你的储蓄，你就很可能陷入一贫如洗的境地。到那时，你唯一的收入就是每个月从社保基金中领取的退休金──而你提取得越早，领取的金额就越少。
2) 保留本金
你是不是经常会听到有人说，“不要动用本金”，“不要 你的资产”？
事实上，提取一些本金可能是让你的退休储蓄保值的最好办法。
我又要老生常谈地提一下我经常在这个栏目发表的观点了：当你退休时，不妨考虑将25%或50%的资产转到即期固定年金中，这样你可以在有生之年按照经通货膨胀调整后的水平逐年提取，通货膨胀率大约为每年3%左右。
不过很多人仍然不愿购买年金。对于某些人来说，不去购买年金的理由和提前支取退休金如出一辙。
很多老年人担心他们在购买年金后不久就去世，而他们的庞大投资也就打水飘了。其实你可以在退休后的前十年陆续地少量买进年金，而不是一次性大笔投入，这样风险就小多了。
很多退休人员还有一个顾虑。当你将资金投入到固定年金的时候，钱就没了，这违背了“不要动用本金”的原则。不过从长远来看，动用本金购买年金有助于保留你的资产。
事实上，退休时你的支出可能会超出你的资产组合在扣除通货膨胀后带来的回报。在退休的早些年，你的资产的“真实”价值可能会慢慢萎缩。
而随着时光的流逝，这种萎缩程度也将加速，你需要让你的收入增长跟上通货膨胀的步伐，而投资组合价值萎缩后所带来的投资回报却在减少。到80岁左右，你的储蓄就基本上用光了。
如果你购买了年金，你就不会陷入这种绝境。年金不仅可以保证让你在有生之年都有收入，而且有了年金你就不用大手笔地支取剩余资产了。最后：在你去世的时候可能有大量资产还未动过。
如果你选择即期年金，你可能还会受到另外一个传统观念的束缚。你或许已经听说过，不应该在个人退休帐户(IRA)中购买年金。
是的，你可能不想动用个人退休帐户去购买可递延税款的固定或可变年金。个人退休帐户本身已经为你提供了递延税款的待遇，因此用这部分钱来进行可递延税款的投资就毫无意义。
但在个人退休帐户中购买即期年金仍然不失为明智之举。这不会立即产生任何税项。而如果你动用应纳税帐户购买即期年金，你可能要卖出股票，这就产生了资产所得税。
而且，年金收入将被作为正常收入计税，就像你从个人退休帐户中进行支取一样。因此用个人退休帐户购买即期年金，你就省下了随后引发的大笔税款。
3) 购买债券
传统观念认为，随着退休年龄的临近，你应该逐渐卖出股票，买进债券。这种说法有一定的道理。
不过不要将股票全盘卖出。我认为退休人员应该将其在全球多元化股票基金中的投资保留40%-60%。那么该如何解释上述传统观念呢？它是建立在一种错误的假设基础上──并且忽视了一个重大风险。
他们假设退休人员非常不愿承担风险。但事实上退休人员对于熊市经常比年轻投资者更加无所畏惧，因为他们拥有长期的投资经验。
诚然，如果你的投资组合是你的主要生活来源，而不仅仅是为退休作储备，那么股市崩盘对你的打击就大多了。不过除了股价下跌外，退休人员还要面临其他风险。
在25年至30年的退休过程中，通货膨胀可能给你的生活成本带来灾难性的打击。为了防范这种风险，你的投资回报就要超出通货膨胀率──这也就是你需要持有一定股票的原因。
原文：Jonathan Clements
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