Stock Name: KINSTEL
Company Name: KINSTEEL BHD
Research House: OSK
OSK says the surprise loss at Kinsteel's downstream operations and worse than expected loss from 37 per cent -owned Perwaja again let them down.
The loss was mainly attributed to the wide mismatch between higher raw materials costs vis-���-vis lower selling prices of steel products, OSK added.
As OSK expect the quantum of improvement anticipated for fourth quarter to be rather limited
It thus cuts estimates by 65.5 per cent for financial year 2010 and 13.2 per cent for financial year 2011. This translate into a lower target price of RM0.83
Tuesday, November 30, 2010
SIME - A noteworthy recovery at Sime Darby
Stock Name: SIME
Company Name: SIME DARBY BHD
Research House: HWANGDBS
Sime Darby Bhd
(Nov 29, RMxx)
Upgrade to buy with revised target price RM10.20 (from RM9): Sime Darby reported 1QFY11 earnings of RM654.7 million (-4% year-on-year; reversing from 4QFY10 loss) ' in line with our forecast on an annualised basis. Top line grew 14% to RM8.78 billion, driven by the motor, property, industrial, and utilities segments, thanks to robust demand for the group's products.
However, earnings before intrest and tax (Ebit) was affected by weaker plantations performance (due to lower volumes) and losses in engineering (due to a lack of new projects). We understand that Sime is currently bidding for three new fabrication projects. No dividends were declared for 1QFY11.
The group's oil palm harvesting in Indonesia suffered a one-off setback in 1QFY11 due to flooding in South Kalimantan, which has since receded.
Fresh fruit bunch (FFB) harvesting in Indonesia is on track to recover in subsequent quarters. However, Malaysian FFB yield will fall behind our initial expectations as the lagged impact brought on by the drought in early CY10 is worse than expected.
We reduce FY11F/13F plantations Ebit by 8% to 15% on cuts in overall yields. However, the motor segment Ebit contribution is raised by 65% to 67%, industrial (8% to 9%) and property (7%). Hence, CY11F/13F earnings are raised by 2% to 6% and target price lifted by 13% to RM10.20 (based on sum-of-parts).
Recovery in most of the group's businesses has exceeded our expectations.
We believe Sime deserves a second look as the current earnings growth momentum still has legs and the shares offer a 17% potential upside to our RM10.20 target price. ' HwangDBS-Vickers Research, Nov 29
Company Name: SIME DARBY BHD
Research House: HWANGDBS
Sime Darby Bhd
(Nov 29, RMxx)
Upgrade to buy with revised target price RM10.20 (from RM9): Sime Darby reported 1QFY11 earnings of RM654.7 million (-4% year-on-year; reversing from 4QFY10 loss) ' in line with our forecast on an annualised basis. Top line grew 14% to RM8.78 billion, driven by the motor, property, industrial, and utilities segments, thanks to robust demand for the group's products.
However, earnings before intrest and tax (Ebit) was affected by weaker plantations performance (due to lower volumes) and losses in engineering (due to a lack of new projects). We understand that Sime is currently bidding for three new fabrication projects. No dividends were declared for 1QFY11.
The group's oil palm harvesting in Indonesia suffered a one-off setback in 1QFY11 due to flooding in South Kalimantan, which has since receded.
Fresh fruit bunch (FFB) harvesting in Indonesia is on track to recover in subsequent quarters. However, Malaysian FFB yield will fall behind our initial expectations as the lagged impact brought on by the drought in early CY10 is worse than expected.
We reduce FY11F/13F plantations Ebit by 8% to 15% on cuts in overall yields. However, the motor segment Ebit contribution is raised by 65% to 67%, industrial (8% to 9%) and property (7%). Hence, CY11F/13F earnings are raised by 2% to 6% and target price lifted by 13% to RM10.20 (based on sum-of-parts).
Recovery in most of the group's businesses has exceeded our expectations.
We believe Sime deserves a second look as the current earnings growth momentum still has legs and the shares offer a 17% potential upside to our RM10.20 target price. ' HwangDBS-Vickers Research, Nov 29
ANNJOO - Domestic demand emerging at Ann Joo
Stock Name: ANNJOO
Company Name: ANN JOO RESOURCES BHD
Research House: MAYBANK
Ann Joo Resources Bhd
(Nov 29, RM2.79)
Maintain buy at RM2.86 with target price of RM3.05: Ann Joo Resources' 9MFY10 net profit of RM123 million made up 69% of our and consensus' full-year forecast.
We consider this to be within our expectations as Ann Joo is likely to report a rebound in earnings in 4QFY10 on higher sales volume and better average selling prices (ASPs).
We remain positive on Ann Joo given our expectation of a domestic demand rebound in 2011/12. We maintain 'buy', with an unchanged RM3.05 target price (11 times fully diluted 2011 PER).
Key takeaways from 3QFY10 results: (i) Net profit fell to RM10 million (-77% year-on-year, -85% quarter-on-quarter) on lower manufacturing sales volume of 126,000 tonnes (-21% y-o-y, -45% q-o-q) as management held back sales to the export market in view of weak ASPs. Export sales tonnage fell substantially by 86% q-o-q and only accounted for 13% of total sales volume (2Q10: 50%); (ii) Group earnings before interest and tax (Ebit) margin dropped to 5.7% (-8.2 percentage points y-o-y, -8 percentage points q-o-q) on weak steel ASPs of estimated US$560 per tonne (-10% q-o-q) and higher scrap inventory; and (iii) Net gearing increased to 1.2 times (June 2010: 1 time) due to higher utilisation of trade facilities as inventory level rose to RM1.2 billion (+21% q-o-q).
We understand that domestic steel demand is edging up slowly, driven by the recently awarded KLIA2 project.
Ann Joo has also resumed exports since October, with 20,000 tonnes transacted, and is in the processof concluding another 20,000 tonnes of sales (against 16,000 tonnes in 3QFY10).
We are also encouraged that steel demand in China remains firm, as evident from the rising steel ASPs of US$680 per tonne in China (around 6% premium to our local steel ASPs).
We anticipate earnings to rebound in 4QFY10 owing to restocking activities and better ASPs.
Additionally, Ann Joo's mini blast furnace (+30% billet capacity by January 2011), in the final stage of construction of the auxiliary facilities (underground pipe-laying), will help the company to save costs (lower energy and scrap usage) and catch the domestic steel recovery in 2011/12.
We maintain our earnings forecasts, rating and target price. ' Maybank IB Research, Nov 29
Company Name: ANN JOO RESOURCES BHD
Research House: MAYBANK
Ann Joo Resources Bhd
(Nov 29, RM2.79)
Maintain buy at RM2.86 with target price of RM3.05: Ann Joo Resources' 9MFY10 net profit of RM123 million made up 69% of our and consensus' full-year forecast.
We consider this to be within our expectations as Ann Joo is likely to report a rebound in earnings in 4QFY10 on higher sales volume and better average selling prices (ASPs).
We remain positive on Ann Joo given our expectation of a domestic demand rebound in 2011/12. We maintain 'buy', with an unchanged RM3.05 target price (11 times fully diluted 2011 PER).
Key takeaways from 3QFY10 results: (i) Net profit fell to RM10 million (-77% year-on-year, -85% quarter-on-quarter) on lower manufacturing sales volume of 126,000 tonnes (-21% y-o-y, -45% q-o-q) as management held back sales to the export market in view of weak ASPs. Export sales tonnage fell substantially by 86% q-o-q and only accounted for 13% of total sales volume (2Q10: 50%); (ii) Group earnings before interest and tax (Ebit) margin dropped to 5.7% (-8.2 percentage points y-o-y, -8 percentage points q-o-q) on weak steel ASPs of estimated US$560 per tonne (-10% q-o-q) and higher scrap inventory; and (iii) Net gearing increased to 1.2 times (June 2010: 1 time) due to higher utilisation of trade facilities as inventory level rose to RM1.2 billion (+21% q-o-q).
We understand that domestic steel demand is edging up slowly, driven by the recently awarded KLIA2 project.
Ann Joo has also resumed exports since October, with 20,000 tonnes transacted, and is in the processof concluding another 20,000 tonnes of sales (against 16,000 tonnes in 3QFY10).
We are also encouraged that steel demand in China remains firm, as evident from the rising steel ASPs of US$680 per tonne in China (around 6% premium to our local steel ASPs).
We anticipate earnings to rebound in 4QFY10 owing to restocking activities and better ASPs.
Additionally, Ann Joo's mini blast furnace (+30% billet capacity by January 2011), in the final stage of construction of the auxiliary facilities (underground pipe-laying), will help the company to save costs (lower energy and scrap usage) and catch the domestic steel recovery in 2011/12.
We maintain our earnings forecasts, rating and target price. ' Maybank IB Research, Nov 29
ALAM - Weak results at Alam Maritim, but pipelay barge could re-rate stock
Stock Name: ALAM
Company Name: ALAM MARITIM RESOURCES BHD
Research House: AMMB
Alam Maritim Resources Bhd
(Nov 29, RM1.09)
Maintain buy at RM1.09 with revised fair value of RM1.31: We reaffirm our 'buy' rating on Alam Maritim, but with a lower fair value of RM1.31, pegging its FY11F earnings to a PER of 15 times its three-year historical average.
Alam's 3QFY10 earnings came in at RM9 million, bringing its 9MFY10 earnings to RM47 million ' a decline of 39% year-on-year (y-o-y) on the back of a 21% drop in revenue.
The main reason for the underperformance is non-renewal of its underwater services order book. Alam is recognising current contracts which are at the tail end.
The focus now will be on consolidating this unit with a recently launched pipelay barge ' a JV with Swiber. Alam has three or four idle vessels awaiting new tenders.
We are cutting our estimates for FY10F/12F by 42% to 45% to RM61 million to RM79 million due to a weaker contribution from both the underwater services and vessel chartering divisions.
Demand for vessels in our waters will be anchored by the 21 vessels Petronas Carigali will require. Recall, 14 vessels needed next year are for deepwater works, boding well for Alam which expects delivery of two DP2 deepwater anchor handling vessels by end-this year.
Apart from Petronas Carigali's requirements, there are few others in the market: (i) rejuvenation works for Petroliam Nasional Bhd (Petronas); (ii) enhanced oil recovery services and so on; and (iii) demand from other PSCs such as Shell and ExxonMobil
With the pipelay barge ready, Alam's target is to be involved in shallow-water pipelaying works in Malaysia ' part of SapuraCrest Petroleum Bhd's 'umbrella contract'.
We believe there is a strong chance for Alam to get some slices of the available jobs because: (i) favourable demand/supply dynamics of this vessel; and (ii) the availability of the underwater unit is an added advantage over competitors.
Concerns over vessel ownership issues have been abated with the recent release of its two vessels ' Setia Ulung and Setia Aman.
Management believes the incidents were one-off and will not recur.
Alam is currently trading at a PER of 13 ' a 13% discount to its historical average of 15 times.
We believe this can be explained by: (i) concerns over litigation issues which saw its two vessels impounded but since released; and (ii) lack of news flow on new contracts. ' AmResearch, Nov 29
Company Name: ALAM MARITIM RESOURCES BHD
Research House: AMMB
Alam Maritim Resources Bhd
(Nov 29, RM1.09)
Maintain buy at RM1.09 with revised fair value of RM1.31: We reaffirm our 'buy' rating on Alam Maritim, but with a lower fair value of RM1.31, pegging its FY11F earnings to a PER of 15 times its three-year historical average.
Alam's 3QFY10 earnings came in at RM9 million, bringing its 9MFY10 earnings to RM47 million ' a decline of 39% year-on-year (y-o-y) on the back of a 21% drop in revenue.
The main reason for the underperformance is non-renewal of its underwater services order book. Alam is recognising current contracts which are at the tail end.
The focus now will be on consolidating this unit with a recently launched pipelay barge ' a JV with Swiber. Alam has three or four idle vessels awaiting new tenders.
We are cutting our estimates for FY10F/12F by 42% to 45% to RM61 million to RM79 million due to a weaker contribution from both the underwater services and vessel chartering divisions.
Demand for vessels in our waters will be anchored by the 21 vessels Petronas Carigali will require. Recall, 14 vessels needed next year are for deepwater works, boding well for Alam which expects delivery of two DP2 deepwater anchor handling vessels by end-this year.
Apart from Petronas Carigali's requirements, there are few others in the market: (i) rejuvenation works for Petroliam Nasional Bhd (Petronas); (ii) enhanced oil recovery services and so on; and (iii) demand from other PSCs such as Shell and ExxonMobil
With the pipelay barge ready, Alam's target is to be involved in shallow-water pipelaying works in Malaysia ' part of SapuraCrest Petroleum Bhd's 'umbrella contract'.
We believe there is a strong chance for Alam to get some slices of the available jobs because: (i) favourable demand/supply dynamics of this vessel; and (ii) the availability of the underwater unit is an added advantage over competitors.
Concerns over vessel ownership issues have been abated with the recent release of its two vessels ' Setia Ulung and Setia Aman.
Management believes the incidents were one-off and will not recur.
Alam is currently trading at a PER of 13 ' a 13% discount to its historical average of 15 times.
We believe this can be explained by: (i) concerns over litigation issues which saw its two vessels impounded but since released; and (ii) lack of news flow on new contracts. ' AmResearch, Nov 29
Monday, November 29, 2010
SIME - AmResearch maintains Buy on Sime Darby, FV RM9.90
Stock Name: SIME
Company Name: SIME DARBY BHD
Research House: AMMB
KUALA LUMPUR: AmResearch reiterates its BUY call on SIME DARBY BHD [] but lowered its earnings expectations.
The research house said on Monday, Nov 29 it had reduced its fair value from RM10.45 a share to RM9.90 a share, pegged to an unchanged 10% discount to its sum-of-parts value of RM10.98 a share.
'Our fair value implies a CY11F PE of 17 times'' - at parity to its three-year average. The group's 1QFY11 net profit of RM655 million (-4% YoY) came in below expectations, accounting for 19% of our earlier FY11F earnings of RM3.4billion and 21% of street estimate's RM3.1 billion,' it said.
AmResearch said this largely stemmed from the lower-than-expected earnings rebound from higher crude palm oil prices. The stock currently trades at an attractive CY11F PE of 15 times, below its three-year average of 17 times.
Company Name: SIME DARBY BHD
Research House: AMMB
KUALA LUMPUR: AmResearch reiterates its BUY call on SIME DARBY BHD [] but lowered its earnings expectations.
The research house said on Monday, Nov 29 it had reduced its fair value from RM10.45 a share to RM9.90 a share, pegged to an unchanged 10% discount to its sum-of-parts value of RM10.98 a share.
'Our fair value implies a CY11F PE of 17 times'' - at parity to its three-year average. The group's 1QFY11 net profit of RM655 million (-4% YoY) came in below expectations, accounting for 19% of our earlier FY11F earnings of RM3.4billion and 21% of street estimate's RM3.1 billion,' it said.
AmResearch said this largely stemmed from the lower-than-expected earnings rebound from higher crude palm oil prices. The stock currently trades at an attractive CY11F PE of 15 times, below its three-year average of 17 times.
FBM KLCI extends loss in early trade
KUALA LUMPUR: The FBM KLCI extended its losses in early trade on Monday, Nov 29, in line with the generally negative sentiment across regional markets still wary of the €85 billion rescue plan for Ireland.
Reuters reported the 16-nation euro zone approved the package, which included an immediate 10 billion euro recapitalisation for Ireland's debt-stricken banks, fearing contagion would strike fellow strugglers Spain and Portugal.
On Bursa Malaysia, the 30-stock FBM KLCI was also weighed by losses at key blue chips, including banks.
At 10am, the index fell 8.41 points to 1,483.64. It had earlier fallen by as much as 18.03 points to 1,474.02.
Market breadth was negative with losers thumping gainers by 406 to 90, while 159 counters traded unchanged. Volume was 232.71 million shares valued at RM351.21 million.
RHB Research Institute Sdn Bhd said it had feared, the market sentiment failed to turn positive even though most investors turned optimistic ahead of the Petronas Chemicals Group Bhd listing last Friday.
It said this was in line with its technical readings that warned of a failure to penetrate the 10-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) would sink the short-term technical reading one notch lower.
It said that with a reversal from the intraday high of 1,500.18 on Friday to end the week at 1,492.05, even lower than the 40-day SMA of 1,495, the FBM KLCI was forecast to head lower in the early part of this week.
Given the “bearish engulfing” candle on the chart, the index should head towards the recent low of 1,476.8 soon, before falling to the critical level of 1,450, it said in a note Nov 29.
“To reiterate, falling below the 1,450 level will trigger a major corrective wave on the almost 20-month rally on the local market.
“We will turn positive again on the short-term trading sentiment only if we see a surprise reversal of the index movement, back to above both the 10-day and 40-day SMAs. And if not, we will stay negative on the FBM KLCI’s short-term outlook,” it said.
At mid-morning on Bursa Malaysia, BAT was the top loser and fell 76 sen to RM44.04; Kulim lost 28 sen to RM12.12, Dutch Lady down 24 sen to RM17.60, United PLANTATION []s down 20 sen to RM17, KLK, Genting and PPB fell 18 sen each to RM19.82, RM10.10 and RM18.18 respectively, Bursa lost 12 sen to RM7.98 and Petronas Dagangan down 10 sen to RM11.06.
Among the banks, Maybank lost six sen to RM8.64, CIMB down two sen to RM8.39, RHB Capital fell eight sen to RM7.92, Public Bank down four sen to RM12.76 and Hong Leong Bank lost 10 sen to RM9.10.
Petronas Chemicals was the most actively traded counter with 27.75 million shares done. The stock fell four sen to RM5.27.
Other actives included Scomi, Pentamaster, KNM Group and Karambunai.
At the regional markets, Japan’s Nikkei 225 gave it earlier gains and was up 0.30% to 10,069.38, and Taiwan’s Taiex was up 0.46% to 8,350.44.
The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.74% to 2,850.38, Singapore’s Straits Times lost 0.26% to 3,149.72, the South Korean Kospi down 0.24% to 1,897.22 while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index opened 0.1% lower at 22,865.66.
Written by Surin Murugiah
Reuters reported the 16-nation euro zone approved the package, which included an immediate 10 billion euro recapitalisation for Ireland's debt-stricken banks, fearing contagion would strike fellow strugglers Spain and Portugal.
On Bursa Malaysia, the 30-stock FBM KLCI was also weighed by losses at key blue chips, including banks.
At 10am, the index fell 8.41 points to 1,483.64. It had earlier fallen by as much as 18.03 points to 1,474.02.
Market breadth was negative with losers thumping gainers by 406 to 90, while 159 counters traded unchanged. Volume was 232.71 million shares valued at RM351.21 million.
RHB Research Institute Sdn Bhd said it had feared, the market sentiment failed to turn positive even though most investors turned optimistic ahead of the Petronas Chemicals Group Bhd listing last Friday.
It said this was in line with its technical readings that warned of a failure to penetrate the 10-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) would sink the short-term technical reading one notch lower.
It said that with a reversal from the intraday high of 1,500.18 on Friday to end the week at 1,492.05, even lower than the 40-day SMA of 1,495, the FBM KLCI was forecast to head lower in the early part of this week.
Given the “bearish engulfing” candle on the chart, the index should head towards the recent low of 1,476.8 soon, before falling to the critical level of 1,450, it said in a note Nov 29.
“To reiterate, falling below the 1,450 level will trigger a major corrective wave on the almost 20-month rally on the local market.
“We will turn positive again on the short-term trading sentiment only if we see a surprise reversal of the index movement, back to above both the 10-day and 40-day SMAs. And if not, we will stay negative on the FBM KLCI’s short-term outlook,” it said.
At mid-morning on Bursa Malaysia, BAT was the top loser and fell 76 sen to RM44.04; Kulim lost 28 sen to RM12.12, Dutch Lady down 24 sen to RM17.60, United PLANTATION []s down 20 sen to RM17, KLK, Genting and PPB fell 18 sen each to RM19.82, RM10.10 and RM18.18 respectively, Bursa lost 12 sen to RM7.98 and Petronas Dagangan down 10 sen to RM11.06.
Among the banks, Maybank lost six sen to RM8.64, CIMB down two sen to RM8.39, RHB Capital fell eight sen to RM7.92, Public Bank down four sen to RM12.76 and Hong Leong Bank lost 10 sen to RM9.10.
Petronas Chemicals was the most actively traded counter with 27.75 million shares done. The stock fell four sen to RM5.27.
Other actives included Scomi, Pentamaster, KNM Group and Karambunai.
At the regional markets, Japan’s Nikkei 225 gave it earlier gains and was up 0.30% to 10,069.38, and Taiwan’s Taiex was up 0.46% to 8,350.44.
The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.74% to 2,850.38, Singapore’s Straits Times lost 0.26% to 3,149.72, the South Korean Kospi down 0.24% to 1,897.22 while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index opened 0.1% lower at 22,865.66.
Written by Surin Murugiah
Saturday, November 27, 2010
外匯存底與資產泡沫化？
最近市場流行討論一個話題，就是民國100年會否有資產泡沫化危機？
這是個好問題！但如果把擔心資產泡沫化的原因，指向外匯存底激增，恐怕有點弄錯方向。
正確的憂慮應該是：中央銀行如果干預新台幣匯率（如：企圖阻升台幣匯率而大量購買美元），並造成外匯存底增加時，因為央行一手大買外幣資產（如：美元），就會相對在國內市場放出等量的新台幣，故新台幣貨幣數量才會激增，並造成國內資產價格上揚。
簡單說，央行干預匯率（且還必須是買匯阻升台幣），才會讓外匯存底增加，並造成國內貨幣數量過多。故外匯存底的增加，為央行干預匯率的結果，而不是泡沫經濟的元兇。若央行不干預匯率，讓熱錢自然流入台灣，則新台幣會自然升值，外匯存底也不會攀高。
所以，我們並不能說外匯存底是造成資產泡沫的元凶禍首，而應該說央行過度干預匯率才會。這道理就好像感冒病菌入侵人體，會引發白血球激增來對抗病菌，然後造成發燒與體溫上升。我們不能說白血球過高是體溫上升的禍首，而應該說白血球跑去對抗病菌，才是發燒主因。
但問題是：台灣的中央銀行若不干預匯率，放手讓熱錢流入台灣，結果會對台灣經濟市場比較好嗎？
假如台幣因國際熱錢流入而大漲10%，從1美元兌換30元台幣，升值到1比27，這樣會對台灣的整體市場比較好嗎？
簡單來說，當國際熱錢流入台灣時，我們可以有兩個選項：
Ａ.央行干預匯率，讓匯率維持1比30，並讓外匯存底增加，造成國內貨幣數量激增。
Ｂ.央行不干預匯率，讓匯率升破1比27，讓外匯存底維持平穩，並讓國內貨幣數量維持穩定。
Ａ與Ｂ，何者為佳？
要回答這問題，我們得先弄懂外匯存底的意義是什麼。所謂外匯存底，就是指一個國家握有外國貨幣的準備金或頭寸。
外匯，就是外國貨幣（如：外幣現金、外幣存款、外幣支票、匯票）或可快速兌換為外幣的海外有價證券（外國公債、公司債、國庫券或股票等），或者是能換成外幣的黃金。存底，就是中央銀行儲備一些外匯，以支應市場的買匯需求。
民間人士也能持有外匯，當一個人在台灣握有美元、歐元、美國公債或黃金時，他可以拿這些外匯（美元、歐元、美國公債或黃金）到海外買東西。這種東西，就叫外匯。
國家持有的外匯，才被稱為外匯存底，又稱外匯儲備，這是一國央行拿在手上的一堆海外貨幣（外匯）。
為何央行要儲存一堆外匯呢？因為當台灣商人將國內產品拿到海外市場去賣時，售貨所得的美金，並不能直接拿回台灣使用，而必須換成新台幣。他到哪裡換呢？要到銀行去換。銀行拿了美元，放出新台幣給商人，手上就多了一堆美元。這些美元，銀行也不能在台灣使用，所以又得拿到中央銀行交換新台幣。
中央銀行從銀行手中拿到美元，就會放出等量的新台幣給銀行，等於放出一堆新台幣通貨到國內市場。這些通貨，表面看來好像是由央行創造的，實際上是台商的海外銷貨所得創造的。所以，在匯率自由交換下，外匯存底激增的主要來源是出超---一國的外貿出超過多，中央銀行的外匯存底就會激增。
在貿易與匯率自由下，一個國家的外貿出超會造成匯率上升，最後導致國內銷往海外的貨品價格上揚，從而降低了海外市場的銷售競爭力，進而減少出口並讓出超數字下降。出超數字下降，則台商賺回國內的外匯將減少，甚至新台幣還因國內進口貨品而反向流出，則匯率會下滑，外匯存底也因入超而下降。
理論上，匯率自由波動，會讓國際貿易達成自然平衡，而一國中央銀行也不必囤積過多的外匯準備，只要維持一國出口數量的三到六個月外匯（幣）儲備即可。為什麼呢？因為中央銀行只是貨幣的中介者，是國內商人與銀行需要外匯（幣）時，可以找到的最大間可換匯銀行。中央銀行只是銀行的銀行，是銀行把過多的外匯，賣給中央銀行而已。
更精準來說，銀行買匯或賣匯，是通過外匯市場來進行自由買賣與交換，並讓外匯的供給與需求通過市場力量平衡。中央銀行也只是外匯市場的參與者之一，故當外匯市場的其他參與者---銀行，因為民眾大量買美元而需要美元外匯時，銀行一面倒地大買美元外匯頭寸（部位），會讓新台幣匯率因而急遽重挫。這時候，市場上最大間的銀行---中央銀行就把外匯存底拿出來拋售，以平抑新台幣匯率。
反之，當市場上有熱錢流入時，比如美國人跑到台灣的銀行大買新台幣，使得銀行不斷拿到美元時，過多的美元部位會拿到外匯市場賣，造成美元不值錢。美元價格走低，台幣自然就升值。如果市場上一夕之間充滿賣匯的壓力，新台幣就會遽升。
瞭解了前述外匯存底、外匯市場、外匯與一國出超（出口多於進口，外幣流入國內）、入超（出口小於進口，台幣流出國內）之間的關係後，我們回過頭來看前述Ａ與Ｂ的問題。
如果情境Ｂ是因為國際熱錢大量流入台灣，造成新台幣一天大升1元，三天就升破10%的話，則短短三天內，因出口商來不及因應這樣匯率的急遽升值，就會造成出貨損失（因為之前是以1比30議價，突然升到27元，等於少賺3元）。央行這時不干預匯率，國內出口商就會蒙受短期出貨損失。
而國際熱錢如果既不投資台灣，也不買股票，也不買房子，也不買機器生產設備，只是把錢存在新台幣存款中，三天後，再把熱錢以27元台幣兌1美金匯出去，則他一出一入，就賺走了約10%的錢。苦的是誰呢？國內出口商才剛把報價調升到1比27，又忽然跌回30元，弄得市場大亂，生意也不知該怎麼做，嚴重干擾了出口的穩定。
如果情境Ｂ的狀況中，國際熱錢在央行不干預下，也買了股票、也買了房子，造成台灣股市、房市大漲，這時，一樣會產生資產泡沫危機。換句話說，央行不干預匯率，讓國際熱錢不斷流入台灣，最後外資在高點賣了股票、賣了房子，資產一樣會泡沫化，而外資還能在新台幣高點出脫台幣，換回美元。這等於資本利得與外匯利差兩頭賺。慘的是誰呢？全體國民！
所以，央行能不選擇情境Ａ，出手干預匯率嗎？
當央行總裁選擇出手干預匯率，則國際熱錢賺不到短短三天內的匯差，國內出口商也不會因為這突如其然、無法計算的匯率波動而大傷腦筋，則國泰民安，大家相安無事。國際熱錢在匯率平穩的狀況下，可能考慮選擇投資台股或台灣房地產，則股價、房價會被推升。但因市場自由交易，比較聰明的台灣人會選擇把股票、豪宅倒給外資住套房，則外資也不是笨蛋，自然要好好考慮一下。所以資產泡沫化就不一定會發生。
當然，央行出手干預匯率時，因為會釋出台幣到國內，造成貨幣供給數量激增。這時候，央行也沒那麼笨，也會等量發行定存單或國庫券，甚至升息或調高存款準備率，收回市場過多的游資，讓貨幣供給數量降低，所以熱錢膨湃的現象就未必會發生。
就此而言，只要央行貨幣政策操作得宜，干預匯率是比不干預好很多---原因是，台灣市場太小，沒有放任匯率自由的本錢。
如果台灣不是國際孤兒，且新台幣是強勢貨幣，台灣人又是2.3億人而非0.23億人，則新台幣滿天下，台灣人的內需市場又夠大，則台灣的中央銀行沒有囤積外幣以供民間兌換外匯的必要，因為新台幣在海外流通與台灣民間市場的力量，就會自動平抑掉匯率的不正常波動。
簡單說，國際熱錢流入一個2.3億的大市場，和流入0.23億人口的小市場，所引起的匯率震盪絕不可能相提並論。
又更簡單說，如果新台幣能像美元、歐元、日圓那樣能成為國際市場所接受的支付貨幣，那民眾出國不必匯換，銀行到外匯市場買匯、賣匯的需求也降低，銀行的銀行--- 中央銀行，自然也不必握有一堆外匯頭寸以因應市場換匯需求。
再換個角度說，如果中央銀行的外匯存底不夠支應國際熱錢流出的換匯需求時，一般正常國家可以找國際貨幣基金（ＩＭＦ）調頭寸、融資點外幣進來撐，可是台灣不是ＩＭＦ成員國，新台幣也不是國際通行的貨幣，國際人士更不會在台幣重挫時逢低布局新台幣來讓台幣漲回來。這時候，誰來幫新台幣呢？
當然還是手握多一點外匯存底的中央銀行，才會是新台幣與台灣匯率市場的捍衛戰士！
台灣因為國情特殊，加上市場淺碟，故形成了政府必須擁外匯存底以自重的特殊國情。許多大眾讀者並不是很明白外匯存底的真實意義，所以被市場上一種偏頗性的觀念所錯誤引導，認為台灣的外匯存底過多是不健康的。
是耶？非耶？請君自判！
台灣的資產是有可能泡沫化，但絕不要輕易把資產泡沫化與外匯存底過高畫上簡單的等號，這樣等於一筆抹滅六Ａ級央行總裁的重要貢獻。比起亂印鈔票的美國聯邦準備理事會等一干人等，彭淮南捍衛台幣與控制貨幣數量的成績，顯然好太多了。
最後補充一點，台灣近年外匯存底激增的主因是國際貿易出超。通常出超國的人民不是把賺來的錢在國內消耗掉，就是大量進口海外貨品來消費。但因台灣內需市場小，所以進口貨物沒法子平衡出超，內需又沒消耗掉熱錢，才讓資產價格虛漲。資產價格虛漲，而國內貧富差距過大，才引發人們對資產泡沫的疑慮。加上政府保護出口而壓低匯率，造成出口商人賺大錢又買豪宅，國內民眾只能當個死薪水族乾瞪眼。這種朱門酒肉臭、路有窮薪族，卻是另一個問題了！
王志鈞
2011/11/23
這是個好問題！但如果把擔心資產泡沫化的原因，指向外匯存底激增，恐怕有點弄錯方向。
正確的憂慮應該是：中央銀行如果干預新台幣匯率（如：企圖阻升台幣匯率而大量購買美元），並造成外匯存底增加時，因為央行一手大買外幣資產（如：美元），就會相對在國內市場放出等量的新台幣，故新台幣貨幣數量才會激增，並造成國內資產價格上揚。
簡單說，央行干預匯率（且還必須是買匯阻升台幣），才會讓外匯存底增加，並造成國內貨幣數量過多。故外匯存底的增加，為央行干預匯率的結果，而不是泡沫經濟的元兇。若央行不干預匯率，讓熱錢自然流入台灣，則新台幣會自然升值，外匯存底也不會攀高。
所以，我們並不能說外匯存底是造成資產泡沫的元凶禍首，而應該說央行過度干預匯率才會。這道理就好像感冒病菌入侵人體，會引發白血球激增來對抗病菌，然後造成發燒與體溫上升。我們不能說白血球過高是體溫上升的禍首，而應該說白血球跑去對抗病菌，才是發燒主因。
但問題是：台灣的中央銀行若不干預匯率，放手讓熱錢流入台灣，結果會對台灣經濟市場比較好嗎？
假如台幣因國際熱錢流入而大漲10%，從1美元兌換30元台幣，升值到1比27，這樣會對台灣的整體市場比較好嗎？
簡單來說，當國際熱錢流入台灣時，我們可以有兩個選項：
Ａ.央行干預匯率，讓匯率維持1比30，並讓外匯存底增加，造成國內貨幣數量激增。
Ｂ.央行不干預匯率，讓匯率升破1比27，讓外匯存底維持平穩，並讓國內貨幣數量維持穩定。
Ａ與Ｂ，何者為佳？
要回答這問題，我們得先弄懂外匯存底的意義是什麼。所謂外匯存底，就是指一個國家握有外國貨幣的準備金或頭寸。
外匯，就是外國貨幣（如：外幣現金、外幣存款、外幣支票、匯票）或可快速兌換為外幣的海外有價證券（外國公債、公司債、國庫券或股票等），或者是能換成外幣的黃金。存底，就是中央銀行儲備一些外匯，以支應市場的買匯需求。
民間人士也能持有外匯，當一個人在台灣握有美元、歐元、美國公債或黃金時，他可以拿這些外匯（美元、歐元、美國公債或黃金）到海外買東西。這種東西，就叫外匯。
國家持有的外匯，才被稱為外匯存底，又稱外匯儲備，這是一國央行拿在手上的一堆海外貨幣（外匯）。
為何央行要儲存一堆外匯呢？因為當台灣商人將國內產品拿到海外市場去賣時，售貨所得的美金，並不能直接拿回台灣使用，而必須換成新台幣。他到哪裡換呢？要到銀行去換。銀行拿了美元，放出新台幣給商人，手上就多了一堆美元。這些美元，銀行也不能在台灣使用，所以又得拿到中央銀行交換新台幣。
中央銀行從銀行手中拿到美元，就會放出等量的新台幣給銀行，等於放出一堆新台幣通貨到國內市場。這些通貨，表面看來好像是由央行創造的，實際上是台商的海外銷貨所得創造的。所以，在匯率自由交換下，外匯存底激增的主要來源是出超---一國的外貿出超過多，中央銀行的外匯存底就會激增。
在貿易與匯率自由下，一個國家的外貿出超會造成匯率上升，最後導致國內銷往海外的貨品價格上揚，從而降低了海外市場的銷售競爭力，進而減少出口並讓出超數字下降。出超數字下降，則台商賺回國內的外匯將減少，甚至新台幣還因國內進口貨品而反向流出，則匯率會下滑，外匯存底也因入超而下降。
理論上，匯率自由波動，會讓國際貿易達成自然平衡，而一國中央銀行也不必囤積過多的外匯準備，只要維持一國出口數量的三到六個月外匯（幣）儲備即可。為什麼呢？因為中央銀行只是貨幣的中介者，是國內商人與銀行需要外匯（幣）時，可以找到的最大間可換匯銀行。中央銀行只是銀行的銀行，是銀行把過多的外匯，賣給中央銀行而已。
更精準來說，銀行買匯或賣匯，是通過外匯市場來進行自由買賣與交換，並讓外匯的供給與需求通過市場力量平衡。中央銀行也只是外匯市場的參與者之一，故當外匯市場的其他參與者---銀行，因為民眾大量買美元而需要美元外匯時，銀行一面倒地大買美元外匯頭寸（部位），會讓新台幣匯率因而急遽重挫。這時候，市場上最大間的銀行---中央銀行就把外匯存底拿出來拋售，以平抑新台幣匯率。
反之，當市場上有熱錢流入時，比如美國人跑到台灣的銀行大買新台幣，使得銀行不斷拿到美元時，過多的美元部位會拿到外匯市場賣，造成美元不值錢。美元價格走低，台幣自然就升值。如果市場上一夕之間充滿賣匯的壓力，新台幣就會遽升。
瞭解了前述外匯存底、外匯市場、外匯與一國出超（出口多於進口，外幣流入國內）、入超（出口小於進口，台幣流出國內）之間的關係後，我們回過頭來看前述Ａ與Ｂ的問題。
如果情境Ｂ是因為國際熱錢大量流入台灣，造成新台幣一天大升1元，三天就升破10%的話，則短短三天內，因出口商來不及因應這樣匯率的急遽升值，就會造成出貨損失（因為之前是以1比30議價，突然升到27元，等於少賺3元）。央行這時不干預匯率，國內出口商就會蒙受短期出貨損失。
而國際熱錢如果既不投資台灣，也不買股票，也不買房子，也不買機器生產設備，只是把錢存在新台幣存款中，三天後，再把熱錢以27元台幣兌1美金匯出去，則他一出一入，就賺走了約10%的錢。苦的是誰呢？國內出口商才剛把報價調升到1比27，又忽然跌回30元，弄得市場大亂，生意也不知該怎麼做，嚴重干擾了出口的穩定。
如果情境Ｂ的狀況中，國際熱錢在央行不干預下，也買了股票、也買了房子，造成台灣股市、房市大漲，這時，一樣會產生資產泡沫危機。換句話說，央行不干預匯率，讓國際熱錢不斷流入台灣，最後外資在高點賣了股票、賣了房子，資產一樣會泡沫化，而外資還能在新台幣高點出脫台幣，換回美元。這等於資本利得與外匯利差兩頭賺。慘的是誰呢？全體國民！
所以，央行能不選擇情境Ａ，出手干預匯率嗎？
當央行總裁選擇出手干預匯率，則國際熱錢賺不到短短三天內的匯差，國內出口商也不會因為這突如其然、無法計算的匯率波動而大傷腦筋，則國泰民安，大家相安無事。國際熱錢在匯率平穩的狀況下，可能考慮選擇投資台股或台灣房地產，則股價、房價會被推升。但因市場自由交易，比較聰明的台灣人會選擇把股票、豪宅倒給外資住套房，則外資也不是笨蛋，自然要好好考慮一下。所以資產泡沫化就不一定會發生。
當然，央行出手干預匯率時，因為會釋出台幣到國內，造成貨幣供給數量激增。這時候，央行也沒那麼笨，也會等量發行定存單或國庫券，甚至升息或調高存款準備率，收回市場過多的游資，讓貨幣供給數量降低，所以熱錢膨湃的現象就未必會發生。
就此而言，只要央行貨幣政策操作得宜，干預匯率是比不干預好很多---原因是，台灣市場太小，沒有放任匯率自由的本錢。
如果台灣不是國際孤兒，且新台幣是強勢貨幣，台灣人又是2.3億人而非0.23億人，則新台幣滿天下，台灣人的內需市場又夠大，則台灣的中央銀行沒有囤積外幣以供民間兌換外匯的必要，因為新台幣在海外流通與台灣民間市場的力量，就會自動平抑掉匯率的不正常波動。
簡單說，國際熱錢流入一個2.3億的大市場，和流入0.23億人口的小市場，所引起的匯率震盪絕不可能相提並論。
又更簡單說，如果新台幣能像美元、歐元、日圓那樣能成為國際市場所接受的支付貨幣，那民眾出國不必匯換，銀行到外匯市場買匯、賣匯的需求也降低，銀行的銀行--- 中央銀行，自然也不必握有一堆外匯頭寸以因應市場換匯需求。
再換個角度說，如果中央銀行的外匯存底不夠支應國際熱錢流出的換匯需求時，一般正常國家可以找國際貨幣基金（ＩＭＦ）調頭寸、融資點外幣進來撐，可是台灣不是ＩＭＦ成員國，新台幣也不是國際通行的貨幣，國際人士更不會在台幣重挫時逢低布局新台幣來讓台幣漲回來。這時候，誰來幫新台幣呢？
當然還是手握多一點外匯存底的中央銀行，才會是新台幣與台灣匯率市場的捍衛戰士！
台灣因為國情特殊，加上市場淺碟，故形成了政府必須擁外匯存底以自重的特殊國情。許多大眾讀者並不是很明白外匯存底的真實意義，所以被市場上一種偏頗性的觀念所錯誤引導，認為台灣的外匯存底過多是不健康的。
是耶？非耶？請君自判！
台灣的資產是有可能泡沫化，但絕不要輕易把資產泡沫化與外匯存底過高畫上簡單的等號，這樣等於一筆抹滅六Ａ級央行總裁的重要貢獻。比起亂印鈔票的美國聯邦準備理事會等一干人等，彭淮南捍衛台幣與控制貨幣數量的成績，顯然好太多了。
最後補充一點，台灣近年外匯存底激增的主因是國際貿易出超。通常出超國的人民不是把賺來的錢在國內消耗掉，就是大量進口海外貨品來消費。但因台灣內需市場小，所以進口貨物沒法子平衡出超，內需又沒消耗掉熱錢，才讓資產價格虛漲。資產價格虛漲，而國內貧富差距過大，才引發人們對資產泡沫的疑慮。加上政府保護出口而壓低匯率，造成出口商人賺大錢又買豪宅，國內民眾只能當個死薪水族乾瞪眼。這種朱門酒肉臭、路有窮薪族，卻是另一個問題了！
王志鈞
2011/11/23
Friday, November 26, 2010
MSPORTS - Multi Sports Holdings sees normalised sales from new capacity
Stock Name: MSPORTS
Company Name: MULTI SPORTS HOLDINGS LTD
Research House: OSK
Multi Sports Holdings Bhd
(51 sen)
Maintain buy at 49.5 sen with lower target price of 87 sen (from 93 sen): While Multi Sports reported strong 9MFY10 revenue and core net profit ' revenue increased by 40.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) to RM203.4 million and 30% y-o-y to RM49.2 million ' its annualised full-year earnings of RM65.6 million, came in below our full-year estimate of RM75.7 million as we overestimated the production volume from new capacity on an annualised basis.
Compared with the strong sales growth of 57.5% (net profit +49.5%) y-o-y in 2QFY10, the group recorded a slower 17% top line y-o-y growth (net profit +3.2% y-o-y) in 3QFY10 as the group has added in extra capacity in 3QFY09, hence the 17% y-o-y growth in the current quarter is a normalised growth.
Multi Sports added five production lines for EVA MD in 3QFY09. Production volume continued to increase by 34% to 23.4 million in 9MFY10 (3QFY10: +14%) while the average selling price improved by 4.4% to RM18.9 (3QFY10: +2.2% y-o-y), mainly driven by the higher demand for EVA MD products.
9MFY10 earnings before interest and tax (Ebit) margin was lower at 28.3% against 33.7% in the previous year due to higher labour costs as the group revised wages upwards, administrative expenses and foreign exchange loss on fundraising from rights share issue which are recognised in the current quarter. The slower core earnings growth compared with top line growth was further explained by the higher interest expense incurred during this quarter on additional short-term loan drawdown.
We trim our FY10 and FY11 earnings forecast by 6.8% to 15% to factor in the lower production volume from new capacity on an annualised basis. We forecast the group will register flat profit in the next quarter due to capacity constraints. We are also expecting Multi Sports to register flat net profit in FY11 given the higher depreciation expense incurred for the new plant and higher effective tax rate of 25% against 12.5% currently. Our target price is reduced to 87 sen, based on 5.5 times FY11 EPS instead of FY10. The construction of its new plant on Xibin Land was completed in November and the group is targeting to move in completely by next month. ' OSK Investment Research
Company Name: MULTI SPORTS HOLDINGS LTD
Research House: OSK
Multi Sports Holdings Bhd
(51 sen)
Maintain buy at 49.5 sen with lower target price of 87 sen (from 93 sen): While Multi Sports reported strong 9MFY10 revenue and core net profit ' revenue increased by 40.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) to RM203.4 million and 30% y-o-y to RM49.2 million ' its annualised full-year earnings of RM65.6 million, came in below our full-year estimate of RM75.7 million as we overestimated the production volume from new capacity on an annualised basis.
Compared with the strong sales growth of 57.5% (net profit +49.5%) y-o-y in 2QFY10, the group recorded a slower 17% top line y-o-y growth (net profit +3.2% y-o-y) in 3QFY10 as the group has added in extra capacity in 3QFY09, hence the 17% y-o-y growth in the current quarter is a normalised growth.
Multi Sports added five production lines for EVA MD in 3QFY09. Production volume continued to increase by 34% to 23.4 million in 9MFY10 (3QFY10: +14%) while the average selling price improved by 4.4% to RM18.9 (3QFY10: +2.2% y-o-y), mainly driven by the higher demand for EVA MD products.
9MFY10 earnings before interest and tax (Ebit) margin was lower at 28.3% against 33.7% in the previous year due to higher labour costs as the group revised wages upwards, administrative expenses and foreign exchange loss on fundraising from rights share issue which are recognised in the current quarter. The slower core earnings growth compared with top line growth was further explained by the higher interest expense incurred during this quarter on additional short-term loan drawdown.
We trim our FY10 and FY11 earnings forecast by 6.8% to 15% to factor in the lower production volume from new capacity on an annualised basis. We forecast the group will register flat profit in the next quarter due to capacity constraints. We are also expecting Multi Sports to register flat net profit in FY11 given the higher depreciation expense incurred for the new plant and higher effective tax rate of 25% against 12.5% currently. Our target price is reduced to 87 sen, based on 5.5 times FY11 EPS instead of FY10. The construction of its new plant on Xibin Land was completed in November and the group is targeting to move in completely by next month. ' OSK Investment Research
GENM - OSK Research maintains Neutral on Genting Malaysia, higher TP RM3.24
Stock Name: GENM
Company Name: GENTING MALAYSIA BERHAD
Research House: OSK
KUALA LUMPUR: OSK Research said Genting Malaysia Bhd reported 9MFY10 earnings that were largely in line with its full-year estimates.
'We are maintaining our NEUTRAL recommendation but confer a higher TP of RM3.24 as we roll forward our valuations to FY11, although pegging the same 8x EV/EBITDA to its domestic casino business,' it said on Friday, Nov 26.
OSK Research said its fair value imputed a 10% discount on RNAV. The group's relatively attractive valuations of 6x EV/EBITDA vs the regional average of 10x will help to anchor its share price.
'Nonetheless, we continue to prefer its parent company, GENTING BHD [], as a proxy to Genting Singapore's more compelling growth story,' it said.
Company Name: GENTING MALAYSIA BERHAD
Research House: OSK
KUALA LUMPUR: OSK Research said Genting Malaysia Bhd reported 9MFY10 earnings that were largely in line with its full-year estimates.
'We are maintaining our NEUTRAL recommendation but confer a higher TP of RM3.24 as we roll forward our valuations to FY11, although pegging the same 8x EV/EBITDA to its domestic casino business,' it said on Friday, Nov 26.
OSK Research said its fair value imputed a 10% discount on RNAV. The group's relatively attractive valuations of 6x EV/EBITDA vs the regional average of 10x will help to anchor its share price.
'Nonetheless, we continue to prefer its parent company, GENTING BHD [], as a proxy to Genting Singapore's more compelling growth story,' it said.
Thursday, November 25, 2010
50億石油終站明年運作‧戴樂前景樂觀
（吉隆坡24日訊）戴樂集團（DIALOG, 7277, 主板貿服組）正致力考察價值50億令吉的邊佳蘭（Pengerang）獨立深海石油終站的發展細節，相信能在明年中旬投入首階段工程，並帶進即時盈利，加上經常性收入持續增加，對2011財政年展望非常樂觀。
該公司執行主席饒文傑在股東大會後指出，將為邊佳蘭計劃擲下2千300萬令吉考察資金，控制發展風險，環境影響評估（EIA）報告則預料在明年2月份出爐，若無大礙，則會儘快展開興建工作。
“整項計劃將分成3個階段進行，料在2017年全面完工，首階段工程則會在2013年告成；我們已做好充足準備，一旦環境評估報告通過後即可動工。”
在沙地發展岸外基地
此外，戴樂集團也籌備在沙地阿拉伯的朱拜爾碼頭發展岸外供應基地，投資額達1億令吉，目前已進入招標階段，可望在2012年初完建。
饒文傑說，政府在經濟轉型計劃下一改早期態度，大力推動私人界投身政府發展計劃，油氣業是主要受惠領域之一，未來幾年內的油汽相關活動估計活絡異常。
目前，該公司業務已涵蓋10個國家，國內與海外業務各佔50%盈利，而且握有1億9千萬令吉淨現金在手，資金調動具高彈性，週轉風險不大。
他表示，由於大量盈利來自油汽業服務活動，屬經常性收入，為盈利表現架起強力支撐，加上強勢品牌有助招攬新客戶，對未來表現深表信心。
[星洲日報／財經‧2010.11.24]
該公司執行主席饒文傑在股東大會後指出，將為邊佳蘭計劃擲下2千300萬令吉考察資金，控制發展風險，環境影響評估（EIA）報告則預料在明年2月份出爐，若無大礙，則會儘快展開興建工作。
“整項計劃將分成3個階段進行，料在2017年全面完工，首階段工程則會在2013年告成；我們已做好充足準備，一旦環境評估報告通過後即可動工。”
在沙地發展岸外基地
此外，戴樂集團也籌備在沙地阿拉伯的朱拜爾碼頭發展岸外供應基地，投資額達1億令吉，目前已進入招標階段，可望在2012年初完建。
饒文傑說，政府在經濟轉型計劃下一改早期態度，大力推動私人界投身政府發展計劃，油氣業是主要受惠領域之一，未來幾年內的油汽相關活動估計活絡異常。
目前，該公司業務已涵蓋10個國家，國內與海外業務各佔50%盈利，而且握有1億9千萬令吉淨現金在手，資金調動具高彈性，週轉風險不大。
他表示，由於大量盈利來自油汽業服務活動，屬經常性收入，為盈利表現架起強力支撐，加上強勢品牌有助招攬新客戶，對未來表現深表信心。
[星洲日報／財經‧2010.11.24]
DIALOG - A good start for Dialog
Stock Name: DIALOG
Company Name: DIALOG GROUP BHD
Research House: CIMB
Dialog Group Bhd
(RM1.44)
Maintain underperform at RM1.44 with revised target price of RM1.10 (from 95 sen): Dialog's 1QFY11 net profit beat our expectations by coming in at 28% of our full-year forecast, though it was broadly in line with consensus estimates at 22%. We had underestimated contributions from the plant maintenance business. Assuming higher contributions from the plant maintenance business and operations at the Tanjung Langsat terminal (TLT), we raise our EPS forecasts by 4.8% for FY11, 19% for FY12 and 19.6% for FY13. The earnings upgrades and the rollover of our target price to end-CY11 increase our target price from 95 sen to RM1.10, pegged to our revised target market PER of 13.8 times (15 times previously). Dialog remains an 'underperform', with the potential downside triggers being: (i) a slowdown in engineering and construction order book replenishment; and (ii) delay in the Pengerang project. Our top oil and gas pick is SapuraCrest.
In 1QFY11, revenue fell 15% year-on-year (y-o-y) following the completion of major engineering and construction projects in Malaysia and Asia-Pacific. However, net profit rose 23% mostly due to higher contributions from two divisions: (i) Plant maintenance: The division has about RM100 million orders on hand currently and has completed significant works in Malaysia and Singapore; (ii) Centralised tankage facilities: Terminal 1 of TLT started its Phase 1 operations in September 2009 with a capacity of 130,000m''. The 270,000m'' capacity at Phase 2 has been utilised since last April.
Dialog has started work on the RM80 million construction of Terminal 1's Phase 3 (capacity: 80,000m'') and RM180 million construction of Terminal 2 (capacity: 180,000m''). The construction is expected to be completed by end-CY11. Dutch trader Trafigura is both a partner and a client, ensuring long-term commitment and consistent utilisation.
In June 2009, Dialog and the Johor government signed a memorandum of understanding to set up an independent deepwater petroleum terminal in Pengerang. Last month, the state government awarded Dialog exclusive rights to develop the terminal for a 60-year period. We have yet to include its potential contribution in our forecasts. Using the Kertih facility as guidance, we estimate that pre-tax contribution from Pengerang may be no less than RM30 million per year. Dialog is now working on the environmental assessment, which is slated to finish by early CY11. 'CIMB Research
This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily
Company Name: DIALOG GROUP BHD
Research House: CIMB
Dialog Group Bhd
(RM1.44)
Maintain underperform at RM1.44 with revised target price of RM1.10 (from 95 sen): Dialog's 1QFY11 net profit beat our expectations by coming in at 28% of our full-year forecast, though it was broadly in line with consensus estimates at 22%. We had underestimated contributions from the plant maintenance business. Assuming higher contributions from the plant maintenance business and operations at the Tanjung Langsat terminal (TLT), we raise our EPS forecasts by 4.8% for FY11, 19% for FY12 and 19.6% for FY13. The earnings upgrades and the rollover of our target price to end-CY11 increase our target price from 95 sen to RM1.10, pegged to our revised target market PER of 13.8 times (15 times previously). Dialog remains an 'underperform', with the potential downside triggers being: (i) a slowdown in engineering and construction order book replenishment; and (ii) delay in the Pengerang project. Our top oil and gas pick is SapuraCrest.
In 1QFY11, revenue fell 15% year-on-year (y-o-y) following the completion of major engineering and construction projects in Malaysia and Asia-Pacific. However, net profit rose 23% mostly due to higher contributions from two divisions: (i) Plant maintenance: The division has about RM100 million orders on hand currently and has completed significant works in Malaysia and Singapore; (ii) Centralised tankage facilities: Terminal 1 of TLT started its Phase 1 operations in September 2009 with a capacity of 130,000m''. The 270,000m'' capacity at Phase 2 has been utilised since last April.
Dialog has started work on the RM80 million construction of Terminal 1's Phase 3 (capacity: 80,000m'') and RM180 million construction of Terminal 2 (capacity: 180,000m''). The construction is expected to be completed by end-CY11. Dutch trader Trafigura is both a partner and a client, ensuring long-term commitment and consistent utilisation.
In June 2009, Dialog and the Johor government signed a memorandum of understanding to set up an independent deepwater petroleum terminal in Pengerang. Last month, the state government awarded Dialog exclusive rights to develop the terminal for a 60-year period. We have yet to include its potential contribution in our forecasts. Using the Kertih facility as guidance, we estimate that pre-tax contribution from Pengerang may be no less than RM30 million per year. Dialog is now working on the environmental assessment, which is slated to finish by early CY11. 'CIMB Research
This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily
PETRA - OSK Research: Petra Perdana to break even by 4Q
Stock Name: PETRA
Company Name: PETRA PERDANA BHD
Research House: OSK
KUALA LUMPUR: OSK Research said PETRA PERDANA BHD []'s'' 9MFY10 results were within its'' expectations, with a cumulative net loss of RM53.1 million year-to-date.
'We expect the company to break even by 4QFY10, unless the monsoon season turns out worse than expected and cause some of its contracted vessels being put on hold,' it said on Thursday, Nov 25
OSK Research said the lower 3QFY10 net loss of RM23.7 million gave a good indication that the worst for the company may be over. The better q-o-q results were contributed by 1) higher utilization of vessels, and 2) lower mobilization costs during the quarter.
'Nevertheless, we think the share price may have hit bottom and hence are upgrading our call to Trading Buy, with a target price of 94 sen,' it said.
Company Name: PETRA PERDANA BHD
Research House: OSK
KUALA LUMPUR: OSK Research said PETRA PERDANA BHD []'s'' 9MFY10 results were within its'' expectations, with a cumulative net loss of RM53.1 million year-to-date.
'We expect the company to break even by 4QFY10, unless the monsoon season turns out worse than expected and cause some of its contracted vessels being put on hold,' it said on Thursday, Nov 25
OSK Research said the lower 3QFY10 net loss of RM23.7 million gave a good indication that the worst for the company may be over. The better q-o-q results were contributed by 1) higher utilization of vessels, and 2) lower mobilization costs during the quarter.
'Nevertheless, we think the share price may have hit bottom and hence are upgrading our call to Trading Buy, with a target price of 94 sen,' it said.
KNM - OSK Research maintains KNM target price at 56 sen
Stock Name: KNM
Company Name: KNM GROUP BHD
Research House: OSK
KUALA LUMPUR: OSK Research said KNM Bhd's 9MFY10 results were above consensus but within its expectations, making up 83% and 78% of the FY10 forecasts respectively.
It said on Thursday, Nov 25 the improvement in the 3QFY10 numbers showed that PBT soared 393% to RM41.0m q-o-q, mainly contributed by higher utilization of its plants as well as a better product mix.
However, on a YTD comparison, the 9MFY10 PBT was still lower by 77.4% due to lower selling prices and higher cost of operation.
The ex-date for the company's share consolidation of every four shares into one share has been set for Dec 2.
'Our target price for KNM remains unchanged at 56 sen, based on a PER of 9x FY11 EPS. In the immediate term, we believe there may be some upside to its share price once the shares are consolidated as worries over its liquidity would be successfully addressed by then.
'Going forward, we expect KNM's outlook to gradually improve in line with the recovery of the global O&G industry,' said OSK Research.
Company Name: KNM GROUP BHD
Research House: OSK
KUALA LUMPUR: OSK Research said KNM Bhd's 9MFY10 results were above consensus but within its expectations, making up 83% and 78% of the FY10 forecasts respectively.
It said on Thursday, Nov 25 the improvement in the 3QFY10 numbers showed that PBT soared 393% to RM41.0m q-o-q, mainly contributed by higher utilization of its plants as well as a better product mix.
However, on a YTD comparison, the 9MFY10 PBT was still lower by 77.4% due to lower selling prices and higher cost of operation.
The ex-date for the company's share consolidation of every four shares into one share has been set for Dec 2.
'Our target price for KNM remains unchanged at 56 sen, based on a PER of 9x FY11 EPS. In the immediate term, we believe there may be some upside to its share price once the shares are consolidated as worries over its liquidity would be successfully addressed by then.
'Going forward, we expect KNM's outlook to gradually improve in line with the recovery of the global O&G industry,' said OSK Research.
AXIATA - Axiata climbs to 5-week high
Stock Name: AXIATA
Company Name: AXIATA GROUP BERHAD
Research House: CREDIT SUISSE
Axiata Group Bhd, a Malaysian mobile phone operator, rose to a five-week high in Kuala Lumpur trading after OSK Research Sdn Bhd and Credit Suisse Group AG raised their share forecasts.
The stock gained 1.6 per cent to RM4.56 at 9:10 a.m. local time, set for its highest close since October 14.
Axiata yesterday reported a 27 per cent rise in third-quarter net income. OSK and Credit Suisse both raised their share estimates to RM5.80, according to separate reports by the research houses today. -- Bloomberg
Company Name: AXIATA GROUP BERHAD
Research House: CREDIT SUISSE
Axiata Group Bhd, a Malaysian mobile phone operator, rose to a five-week high in Kuala Lumpur trading after OSK Research Sdn Bhd and Credit Suisse Group AG raised their share forecasts.
The stock gained 1.6 per cent to RM4.56 at 9:10 a.m. local time, set for its highest close since October 14.
Axiata yesterday reported a 27 per cent rise in third-quarter net income. OSK and Credit Suisse both raised their share estimates to RM5.80, according to separate reports by the research houses today. -- Bloomberg
Tuesday, November 23, 2010
Korean conflict, Ireland woes drive KLCI to one-month low
KUALA LUMPUR: November is turning out to be a volatile month for equities, with the FBM KLCI falling to more than a month’s low on Tuesday, Nov 23, as sentiment takes a hit from the Korean conflict and Ireland’s financial woes.
At Bursa Malaysia, the FBM KLCI closed down 15.67 points or 1.04% to 1,487.53 – the lowest since Oct 21. Declining stocks thrashed advancers 784 to 96 while 196 counters were unchanged. Turnover was 1.18 billion shares valued at RM2 billion.
Key Asian markets fell between 1% and 2.67% while European markets opened weaker.
Reuters reported shares in Hong Kong and China fell on Tuesday as a stronger dollar prompted investors to dump metals and mining stocks, while Hong Kong developers extended losses on fears that new property curbs will slash earnings.
Investors, already edgy over Beijing's fight against inflation and Europe's debt crisis, were also rattled by news late in the session that North Korea had shelled a South Korean island, prompting a return of fire by the South.
The attack, the biggest by the North in years, sent investors fleeing to the safety of the U.S. dollar, further weighing on commodities prices and shares of resource companies.
The Hang Seng Index fell 2.67% to 22,896.14, CSI 300 Index 2.04% lower at 3,107.18, Shanghai Composite 2.04% to 2,828.28 while the Singapore Straits Times Index shed 1.87% to 3,131.32. South Korea’s Kospi fell 0.79% to 1,928.94 before trading was halted due to the conflict.
At Bursa Malaysia, Kulim fell 76 sen to RM11.90, making the worst performer. RHB Research Institute said Kulim, which owns 57% of QSR Brands, may not accept Tan Sri Halim Saad’s offer price for the entire business and undertakings of QSR at RM5.60 per share, which would translate to a total of RM1.6 billion.
The research house said on the offer price of RM5.60 per share undervalued both KFCH and QSR shares.
“Although we do not cover QSR, we believe that the offer price for QSR should at least be close to our estimated fair value of RM6.47, which is based on our fair value for KFCH of RM3.85 and the estimated RM306 million value for Pizza Hut,” it said.
United PLANTATION []s lost 40 sen to RM17.30, DiGi and HL Bank 38 sen each to RM24.42 and RM9.14 while Boustead lost 26 sen to RM5.21. PPB fell 36 sen to RM18.44 on lower earnings from its associate Wilmar.
Among the index-linked stocks Maybank fell 14 sen to RM8.79, CIMB 10 sen to RM8.31, Sime 12 sen to RM8.70 and Tenaga 16 sen to RM8.51.
At Bursa Malaysia, the FBM KLCI closed down 15.67 points or 1.04% to 1,487.53 – the lowest since Oct 21. Declining stocks thrashed advancers 784 to 96 while 196 counters were unchanged. Turnover was 1.18 billion shares valued at RM2 billion.
Key Asian markets fell between 1% and 2.67% while European markets opened weaker.
Reuters reported shares in Hong Kong and China fell on Tuesday as a stronger dollar prompted investors to dump metals and mining stocks, while Hong Kong developers extended losses on fears that new property curbs will slash earnings.
Investors, already edgy over Beijing's fight against inflation and Europe's debt crisis, were also rattled by news late in the session that North Korea had shelled a South Korean island, prompting a return of fire by the South.
The attack, the biggest by the North in years, sent investors fleeing to the safety of the U.S. dollar, further weighing on commodities prices and shares of resource companies.
The Hang Seng Index fell 2.67% to 22,896.14, CSI 300 Index 2.04% lower at 3,107.18, Shanghai Composite 2.04% to 2,828.28 while the Singapore Straits Times Index shed 1.87% to 3,131.32. South Korea’s Kospi fell 0.79% to 1,928.94 before trading was halted due to the conflict.
At Bursa Malaysia, Kulim fell 76 sen to RM11.90, making the worst performer. RHB Research Institute said Kulim, which owns 57% of QSR Brands, may not accept Tan Sri Halim Saad’s offer price for the entire business and undertakings of QSR at RM5.60 per share, which would translate to a total of RM1.6 billion.
The research house said on the offer price of RM5.60 per share undervalued both KFCH and QSR shares.
“Although we do not cover QSR, we believe that the offer price for QSR should at least be close to our estimated fair value of RM6.47, which is based on our fair value for KFCH of RM3.85 and the estimated RM306 million value for Pizza Hut,” it said.
United PLANTATION []s lost 40 sen to RM17.30, DiGi and HL Bank 38 sen each to RM24.42 and RM9.14 while Boustead lost 26 sen to RM5.21. PPB fell 36 sen to RM18.44 on lower earnings from its associate Wilmar.
Among the index-linked stocks Maybank fell 14 sen to RM8.79, CIMB 10 sen to RM8.31, Sime 12 sen to RM8.70 and Tenaga 16 sen to RM8.51.
朝鮮半島炮戰韩国打擊金融市場
韩防长称将强硬应对来自朝鲜后续袭击
中新网11月23日电据韩国《中央日报》报道，韩国国防部部长金泰荣23日表示：“当天上午朝军对韩国延坪岛进行了非法火力挑衅。”
金泰荣在出席国会预算结算特别委员会综合政策质疑时表示：“朝军发射了50多枚炮弹，我军遵循交战规则还击了80余枚。”
他随后表示，此次挑衅发生在白翎岛和延坪岛地区，韩军炮兵部队当时正在北方界线(NLL)以南地区进行训练。
金泰荣还强调称：“韩军立即启动了危机管理体系，正防备朝鲜的后续袭击”。他说“我们已经警告朝方立即停止挑衅行为，并计划在发生后续袭击时进行强硬应对”。
........................................................
朝鮮半島炮戰打擊金融市場 (15:17)
韓國和朝鮮炮戰，刺激美元和美國債券期貨上升，韓圜匯價下跌1%，區內股市亦受壓。
美元匯價指數由事件前的78.77，一度升至79.07。美國十月期國庫債券上升20/32；美標普500期貨跌大約0.9%。
今日已持續疲弱的香港指數，下午3時跌500多點；歐洲Stoxx 50 指數跌0.6%；日圓兌美元跌0.4%，每美元兌83.63。日本是日假期，股市停開一天。
韓圜跌1%，而一個月期不交收合約跌3.6%，每美元一度兌1155.34圜。
......................................................
北韓仍在向延坪島發射砲彈
(星島)2010年11月23日 星期二 15:08
南韓 西部延坪島，當地下午2時34分許，受到200枚炮彈襲擊，南韓國 防部宣布進入最高戒備狀態。南韓軍方隨即還擊，韓聯社報道，最少4名南韓人軍人及多名平民受傷。
南韓軍方證實，北韓 向西部延坪島發射至少200枚炮彈。據悉，當地居民在緊急避到防空洞。軍方負責人表示，北韓仍在向延坪島發射砲彈，部分居民在用漁船逃離現場。
南韓國防部宣布進入最高戒備狀態，並派出戰鬥機到延坪島。
南韓國務部長金泰榮23日表示：「根據交戰手冊和自衛原則，對北韓進行了80發火砲反擊。」南韓總統李明博就北韓發射海岸炮進行攻擊一事，緊急召開了安全部門長官會議。
........................................................
来源：大华网 时间：2010-11-23 2:02:40
炮击后硝烟弥漫的延坪岛。韩联社
（本网讯）外电报道，朝鲜向韩边境小岛开炮，岛上数十民房起火，多人受伤，韩国军方开火还击，宣布进入非战时最高级别警戒。
韩联社指，朝鲜于当地时间下午2时34分，向延坪岛发射数十枚炮弹，韩军向朝鲜海岸炮基地开火反击，目前正在确认伤亡情况。
该岛上有一个韩国海军的前哨站。韩国YTN电视台指，有数十枚炮弹落在有居民居住的岛上，数十间民居起火，山边也着了火。片段可见，岛上冒出浓烟。居民紧急疏散至防空洞。
朝鲜海岸炮发射地点。韩联社
中新网11月23日电据韩国《中央日报》报道，韩国国防部部长金泰荣23日表示：“当天上午朝军对韩国延坪岛进行了非法火力挑衅。”
金泰荣在出席国会预算结算特别委员会综合政策质疑时表示：“朝军发射了50多枚炮弹，我军遵循交战规则还击了80余枚。”
他随后表示，此次挑衅发生在白翎岛和延坪岛地区，韩军炮兵部队当时正在北方界线(NLL)以南地区进行训练。
金泰荣还强调称：“韩军立即启动了危机管理体系，正防备朝鲜的后续袭击”。他说“我们已经警告朝方立即停止挑衅行为，并计划在发生后续袭击时进行强硬应对”。
........................................................
朝鮮半島炮戰打擊金融市場 (15:17)
韓國和朝鮮炮戰，刺激美元和美國債券期貨上升，韓圜匯價下跌1%，區內股市亦受壓。
美元匯價指數由事件前的78.77，一度升至79.07。美國十月期國庫債券上升20/32；美標普500期貨跌大約0.9%。
今日已持續疲弱的香港指數，下午3時跌500多點；歐洲Stoxx 50 指數跌0.6%；日圓兌美元跌0.4%，每美元兌83.63。日本是日假期，股市停開一天。
韓圜跌1%，而一個月期不交收合約跌3.6%，每美元一度兌1155.34圜。
......................................................
北韓仍在向延坪島發射砲彈
(星島)2010年11月23日 星期二 15:08
南韓 西部延坪島，當地下午2時34分許，受到200枚炮彈襲擊，南韓國 防部宣布進入最高戒備狀態。南韓軍方隨即還擊，韓聯社報道，最少4名南韓人軍人及多名平民受傷。
南韓軍方證實，北韓 向西部延坪島發射至少200枚炮彈。據悉，當地居民在緊急避到防空洞。軍方負責人表示，北韓仍在向延坪島發射砲彈，部分居民在用漁船逃離現場。
南韓國防部宣布進入最高戒備狀態，並派出戰鬥機到延坪島。
南韓國務部長金泰榮23日表示：「根據交戰手冊和自衛原則，對北韓進行了80發火砲反擊。」南韓總統李明博就北韓發射海岸炮進行攻擊一事，緊急召開了安全部門長官會議。
........................................................
来源：大华网 时间：2010-11-23 2:02:40
炮击后硝烟弥漫的延坪岛。韩联社
（本网讯）外电报道，朝鲜向韩边境小岛开炮，岛上数十民房起火，多人受伤，韩国军方开火还击，宣布进入非战时最高级别警戒。
韩联社指，朝鲜于当地时间下午2时34分，向延坪岛发射数十枚炮弹，韩军向朝鲜海岸炮基地开火反击，目前正在确认伤亡情况。
该岛上有一个韩国海军的前哨站。韩国YTN电视台指，有数十枚炮弹落在有居民居住的岛上，数十间民居起火，山边也着了火。片段可见，岛上冒出浓烟。居民紧急疏散至防空洞。
朝鲜海岸炮发射地点。韩联社
KLCI fall below 1,500 level at mid-morning
KUALA LUMPUR: The FBM KLCI fell below the 1,500 level at mid-morning on Tuesday, Nov 23 in line with the weaker close at Wall Street and the overall decline at most key regional markets.
Asian markets, already weighed down by the property market cooling measures in Hong Kong and China’s move to raise banks' reserve ratios to curb inflationary pressures, were jolted again after after Moody’s Investors Service said a “multi-notch downgrade” of Ireland’s credit rating was likely after the country requested an international bailout.
At 10am, the FBM KLCI was down 4.17 points to 1,499.03, weighed by losses at DiGi, PPB, KLK, Petronas Gas and Petronas Dagangan.
Gainers trailed losers by 137 to 269, while 219 counters traded unchanged. Volume was 193.12 million shares valued at RM339.9 million.
RHB Research Institute Sdn Bhd in a note Nov 23 said as was expected, the benchmark FBM KLCI failed to penetrate the key immediate hurdle at the 10-day Simple Moving Average yesterday.
It said that added with a slower daily turnover, and a gloomier short-term outlook amid the slower 3Q GDP growth of 5.3% against the street’s estimates of 5.8%, the market’s trading sentiment was likely to stay sluggish in the immediate term, in our view.
Given regional markets’ sentiment remains uncertain, with the volatility in currencies markets prolong, investors were expected to adopt further “wait-and-see” strategy before deciding the next course of action, it said.
“We thus believe the market will continue to range between the 10-day SMA and 40-day SMA in near term.
“Losing of the 40-day SMA will accelerate the selling pressure and press the index towards the 1,450 level, its critical level for a major corrective wave, while breaching above the 10-day SMA of 1,510 will swing the momentum to positive, hence rechallenging the key level of 1,524.69 soon,” it said.
On Bursa Malaysia, DiGi fell 42 sen to RM24.38, PPB lost 36 sen to RM18.44, KLK was down 22 sen to RM19.80, Pharmaniaga fell 20 sen to RM5.30, Petgas fell 18 sen to RM11.08, Petdag lost 16 sen to RM10.96, Hong Leong Financial Group down 15 sen to RM8.84 and Carlsberg fell 13 sen to RM5.86.
Gainers included Hap Seng, SEG International, Kulim, S P Setia, Plenitude, Batu Kawan and F&N.
Genting Malaysia was the most actively traded counter with 12.98 million shares done. The stock added one sen to RM3.47. Other actives included Karambunai, CIMB, Axiata and Tenaga.
At the regional markets, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.17% to 2,850.60, Singapore’s Straits Times Index lost 0.74% to 3,167.35, the South Korean Kospi Index lost 0.28% to 1,938.94, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index opened 1% lower at 23,294.45 while Taiwan’s Taiex edged up 0.04% to 8,378.13.
Japan’s stock exchange was closed for the Labor Thanksgiving holiday.
Written by Surin Murugiah
Asian markets, already weighed down by the property market cooling measures in Hong Kong and China’s move to raise banks' reserve ratios to curb inflationary pressures, were jolted again after after Moody’s Investors Service said a “multi-notch downgrade” of Ireland’s credit rating was likely after the country requested an international bailout.
At 10am, the FBM KLCI was down 4.17 points to 1,499.03, weighed by losses at DiGi, PPB, KLK, Petronas Gas and Petronas Dagangan.
Gainers trailed losers by 137 to 269, while 219 counters traded unchanged. Volume was 193.12 million shares valued at RM339.9 million.
RHB Research Institute Sdn Bhd in a note Nov 23 said as was expected, the benchmark FBM KLCI failed to penetrate the key immediate hurdle at the 10-day Simple Moving Average yesterday.
It said that added with a slower daily turnover, and a gloomier short-term outlook amid the slower 3Q GDP growth of 5.3% against the street’s estimates of 5.8%, the market’s trading sentiment was likely to stay sluggish in the immediate term, in our view.
Given regional markets’ sentiment remains uncertain, with the volatility in currencies markets prolong, investors were expected to adopt further “wait-and-see” strategy before deciding the next course of action, it said.
“We thus believe the market will continue to range between the 10-day SMA and 40-day SMA in near term.
“Losing of the 40-day SMA will accelerate the selling pressure and press the index towards the 1,450 level, its critical level for a major corrective wave, while breaching above the 10-day SMA of 1,510 will swing the momentum to positive, hence rechallenging the key level of 1,524.69 soon,” it said.
On Bursa Malaysia, DiGi fell 42 sen to RM24.38, PPB lost 36 sen to RM18.44, KLK was down 22 sen to RM19.80, Pharmaniaga fell 20 sen to RM5.30, Petgas fell 18 sen to RM11.08, Petdag lost 16 sen to RM10.96, Hong Leong Financial Group down 15 sen to RM8.84 and Carlsberg fell 13 sen to RM5.86.
Gainers included Hap Seng, SEG International, Kulim, S P Setia, Plenitude, Batu Kawan and F&N.
Genting Malaysia was the most actively traded counter with 12.98 million shares done. The stock added one sen to RM3.47. Other actives included Karambunai, CIMB, Axiata and Tenaga.
At the regional markets, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.17% to 2,850.60, Singapore’s Straits Times Index lost 0.74% to 3,167.35, the South Korean Kospi Index lost 0.28% to 1,938.94, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index opened 1% lower at 23,294.45 while Taiwan’s Taiex edged up 0.04% to 8,378.13.
Japan’s stock exchange was closed for the Labor Thanksgiving holiday.
Written by Surin Murugiah
Monday, November 22, 2010
KOSSAN - Kossan to focus on higher-end exam gloves
Stock Name: KOSSAN
Company Name: KOSSAN RUBBER INDUSTRIES BHD
Research House: OSK
Kossan Rubber Industries Bhd will continue to focus on higher-end examination gloves, said OSK Research.
In its research note today, OSK said Kossan, in comparison with some of its peers, had gotten the head start by having the intention and putting the efforts to focus on the higher-end examination gloves such as the powder-free nitrile and surgical gloves.
"We understand the company will continue with efforts to upgrade its Chemax glove launched a few years ago, which yields higher product margin as well as look to producing surgical gloves starting from next year to further strengthen its presence in the higher-end examination glove market," it said.
OSK said Kossan has delivered a good set of results for the third quarter ended Sept 30, 2010.
"Its net profit was only down by 4.8 per cent quarter-on-quarter unlike some of its peers where their net profits were down between 17 per cent and 30 per cent during the corresponding period following the high latex prices and unfavorable exchange rate," it said.
For the third quarter ended Sept 30, 2010, Kossan's pre-tax increased to RM38 million from RM21 million in same quarter of 2009.
Revenue increased to RM276 million from RM210 million previously.
OSK said it would maintain its "buy" call on Kossan with the target price unchanged at RM5.25.
Company Name: KOSSAN RUBBER INDUSTRIES BHD
Research House: OSK
Kossan Rubber Industries Bhd will continue to focus on higher-end examination gloves, said OSK Research.
In its research note today, OSK said Kossan, in comparison with some of its peers, had gotten the head start by having the intention and putting the efforts to focus on the higher-end examination gloves such as the powder-free nitrile and surgical gloves.
"We understand the company will continue with efforts to upgrade its Chemax glove launched a few years ago, which yields higher product margin as well as look to producing surgical gloves starting from next year to further strengthen its presence in the higher-end examination glove market," it said.
OSK said Kossan has delivered a good set of results for the third quarter ended Sept 30, 2010.
"Its net profit was only down by 4.8 per cent quarter-on-quarter unlike some of its peers where their net profits were down between 17 per cent and 30 per cent during the corresponding period following the high latex prices and unfavorable exchange rate," it said.
For the third quarter ended Sept 30, 2010, Kossan's pre-tax increased to RM38 million from RM21 million in same quarter of 2009.
Revenue increased to RM276 million from RM210 million previously.
OSK said it would maintain its "buy" call on Kossan with the target price unchanged at RM5.25.
MEDIA - Media Prima showing you the money
Stock Name: MEDIA
Company Name: MEDIA PRIMA BHD
Research House: ECMLIBRA
Media Prima Bhd
(Nov 18, RM2.24)
Maintain buy at RM2.22 with target price RM2.72: Media Prima (MPR) recorded 3QFY10 core net profit of RM51.3 million (+65% year-on-year, +64% quarter-on-quarter) bringing 9MFY10 core net profit to RM110.5 million (+183% y-o-y) or 72% of our earnings estimate. 9MFY10 revenue of RM1.1 billion (+116% y-o-y) and earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) of RM267.3 million (+150% y-o-y) was above expectations at 78% and 79% of our 2010 estimate. 9MFY10 core net profit would have been higher by RM12.4 million if not for an ex-exceptional items tax rate of 32%
Unlike Star's 3QFY10 core net profit, MPR's 3QFY10 core net profit was sequentially driven higher by TV adex which expanded 51% q-o-q. We understand that MPR reduced its discounting rate by three percentage points (ppts) q-o-q to 64% to take advantage of improving consumer and thus, adex sentiment. This also explained Ebitda margins improving by three ppt q-o-q to 25%.
3QFY10 core net profit was higher y-o-y, not only due to adex growth but maiden contributions from NSTP and Kurnia Outdoor. New media losses expanded six fold y-o-y likely due to the launch of TonTon but was more than made up for by TV, radio and outdoor which all recorded y-o-y growth. 9MFY10 core net profit was of course higher y-o-y for the same reasons.
MPR also announced that it is revising its dividend policy from 25% to 50% net dividend payout ratio (DPR) to 25% to 75% net DPR effective this year. Going forward, dividends will be paid twice a year. To this end, it announced a single-tier interim dividend of four sen and another is expected to be announced at year-end. Assuming 75% net DPR, investors can expect another six sen net dividend per share or 3% net dividend yield at year-end.
We leave our earnings estimate unchanged. 4QFY10 will likely be a slightly weaker quarter due to the lack of adex friendly events. The last major adex friendly event was Hari Raya Aidifiltri in September or end 3QFY10. Our RM2.72 target price is based on 18 times one-year forward PER, the historical average. We continue to like MPR for its earnings outperformance and now its potential to pay more dividends. ' ECM Libra Investment Research
Company Name: MEDIA PRIMA BHD
Research House: ECMLIBRA
Media Prima Bhd
(Nov 18, RM2.24)
Maintain buy at RM2.22 with target price RM2.72: Media Prima (MPR) recorded 3QFY10 core net profit of RM51.3 million (+65% year-on-year, +64% quarter-on-quarter) bringing 9MFY10 core net profit to RM110.5 million (+183% y-o-y) or 72% of our earnings estimate. 9MFY10 revenue of RM1.1 billion (+116% y-o-y) and earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) of RM267.3 million (+150% y-o-y) was above expectations at 78% and 79% of our 2010 estimate. 9MFY10 core net profit would have been higher by RM12.4 million if not for an ex-exceptional items tax rate of 32%
Unlike Star's 3QFY10 core net profit, MPR's 3QFY10 core net profit was sequentially driven higher by TV adex which expanded 51% q-o-q. We understand that MPR reduced its discounting rate by three percentage points (ppts) q-o-q to 64% to take advantage of improving consumer and thus, adex sentiment. This also explained Ebitda margins improving by three ppt q-o-q to 25%.
3QFY10 core net profit was higher y-o-y, not only due to adex growth but maiden contributions from NSTP and Kurnia Outdoor. New media losses expanded six fold y-o-y likely due to the launch of TonTon but was more than made up for by TV, radio and outdoor which all recorded y-o-y growth. 9MFY10 core net profit was of course higher y-o-y for the same reasons.
MPR also announced that it is revising its dividend policy from 25% to 50% net dividend payout ratio (DPR) to 25% to 75% net DPR effective this year. Going forward, dividends will be paid twice a year. To this end, it announced a single-tier interim dividend of four sen and another is expected to be announced at year-end. Assuming 75% net DPR, investors can expect another six sen net dividend per share or 3% net dividend yield at year-end.
We leave our earnings estimate unchanged. 4QFY10 will likely be a slightly weaker quarter due to the lack of adex friendly events. The last major adex friendly event was Hari Raya Aidifiltri in September or end 3QFY10. Our RM2.72 target price is based on 18 times one-year forward PER, the historical average. We continue to like MPR for its earnings outperformance and now its potential to pay more dividends. ' ECM Libra Investment Research
Sunday, November 21, 2010
房市泡沫之謎 製造人潮催升買氣 供需無問題房價被炒高
房地產價格步步高升，我國房地產市場會否出現泡沫，是近期城中熱門話題，但有或沒有始終都是眾說紛紜。
城中城高檔公寓每平方呎價格達2000令吉水平，仍有不少人人搶破頭；非熱點地區房地產價格低于10萬令吉，每月供期甚至低于市區房租，卻無人問津。
房地產供需之間到底出了什么問題？
鄭水興：不必跟風買貴屋。
大馬房地產市場自金融海嘯后，2009年末季起開始活絡，但綜觀多項房地產發展計劃，似乎都是為了中高收入階層而設。
尤其是巴生谷一帶的房地產計劃，動輒以百萬令吉起跳，在熱點地區週邊的城鎮，雙層排樓售價更在數個月內飆升30%，面對一項項新房屋計劃，想要擁屋的受薪階級只能望“樓”興嘆。
在房價走揚的同時，市場傳出有業者刻意製造人潮競購情況，予人房屋搶手的假象。
做好功課免被誤導
更有一些民眾向國會議員投訴，指有發展商在新計劃的非正式推介前，就已將大量單位釋出讓給投機客，當計劃正式推介后，購屋者根本買不到第一手房子，令投機客有機可趁，推高房價。
對此，國際房地產投資俱樂部創辦人鄭水興告訴《中國報》，的確有部分業者為了炒熱購屋氣氛，刻意製造人潮假象，不過，房價被炒高，並不完全是投機客造成的。
“一些購屋者買屋前不做功課，未事先了解市場情況與自己的能力和需求，很容易被銷售人員的說詞打動，買下貴屋。”
他也不認同，巴生谷一帶房價高企，他說，近期多項以百萬起跳的房地產發展計劃，都不是位于熱點地區，而是以往人們認為偏遠的地段，如甲洞、莎阿南和蒲種的特定地區。
“許多人抱怨熱點地區房價高，實際上並不然，一些地點佳的地段仍然可以買到價格低廉、物有所值的房子，卻被購屋者忽略。”
他舉例，如舊古仔路、班蘭英達、蕉賴，以及沙叻秀等地區，雖然位于策略地點，但房屋售價卻較一些非熱點地區來得低廉。
“購屋者一窩蜂湊熱鬧的買屋心態，很容易就會被一些業者利用。”
他說，購屋者若真的喜歡特定發展商的房屋計劃，除了做功課了解市價外，也應留意相關公司動態，不必等到正式推介才去“搶屋”，因為在推介前訂購的話，售價或許便宜一倍。
降低借貸門檻 貸款簡易
了解市場和本身需求，就可在茫茫「屋」海中做出最佳選擇。
僑豐投資研究一名分析員指出，國內房地產市場自2008年走緩后，去年開始回彈，銀行的簡易貸款是提振低迷房地產市場的推動力。
他說，借貸門檻放低促使購屋者想要投資第二或第三間房子，甚至萌生投機念頭。
他指出，炒樓風早在5至6年前就已出現，不同的是，當時人們“炒”的是中低價公寓，但現在投資者對高檔房地產，尤其是豪華房地產更感興趣。
投資項目的改變主要是因為人口年齡的變化，以70年代后出生者年齡計算，5、6年前時的預算只可以負擔中低價公寓，但隨著收入和家庭穩定，開始尋找更高價位的房地產。
“近年也出現20歲出頭的年輕人也嘗試藉由短線操作，尋求高獲利，不過人數不多，投資高價房地產的多屬財務狀況穩定的退休人士。”
他說，年輕一族投資高價房地產，一般上會尋求父母援助，或請父母擔任擔保人，以便更容易取得貸款。
城鎮概念 決定售價
熱點地區房地產價格以兩位數增幅成長，一些售價更飆升至百萬令吉。
地點已經不是唯一決定房價的主要因素，綜觀近期多項高價位房地產項目都是以發展計劃為導向（Project-oriented），城鎮概念設計和營造成了決定售價的因素。
以近期房地產發展熱點帝沙城市公園（Desa Parkcity）為例，砂拉越三林集團在2000年以2億令吉購下這塊面積達473英畝的採石場地段，當時平均每平方呎價格為10令吉左右。
經過三林集團重新打造成城中休閒勝地后，該地段躍升成為寶地，目前保守估計雙層排樓每平方呎售價達800令吉，在此區塊新建的公寓售價更接近100萬令吉。
馬星集團（MAHSING，8583，主要板房產）與大成集團（MAHAJAYA）聯營發展的Kinrara Residence高檔房地產項目，租借地契的雙層排樓推介初期售價約70萬令吉。
隨著需求大增，在后期售價更超過100萬令吉，鄰近同類型房屋的售價也獲帶動上揚。
由實達集團（SPSETIA，8664，主要板房產）打造的實達生態園（Setia EcoPark）房屋計劃，雖然位于莎阿南，但並不影響房屋計劃的受歡迎程度。
售價介于200萬至300萬令吉以上的首階段雙層排樓項目，甫推出市場即售罄。
城中城高檔公寓每平方呎價格達2000令吉水平，仍有不少人人搶破頭；非熱點地區房地產價格低于10萬令吉，每月供期甚至低于市區房租，卻無人問津。
房地產供需之間到底出了什么問題？
鄭水興：不必跟風買貴屋。
大馬房地產市場自金融海嘯后，2009年末季起開始活絡，但綜觀多項房地產發展計劃，似乎都是為了中高收入階層而設。
尤其是巴生谷一帶的房地產計劃，動輒以百萬令吉起跳，在熱點地區週邊的城鎮，雙層排樓售價更在數個月內飆升30%，面對一項項新房屋計劃，想要擁屋的受薪階級只能望“樓”興嘆。
在房價走揚的同時，市場傳出有業者刻意製造人潮競購情況，予人房屋搶手的假象。
做好功課免被誤導
更有一些民眾向國會議員投訴，指有發展商在新計劃的非正式推介前，就已將大量單位釋出讓給投機客，當計劃正式推介后，購屋者根本買不到第一手房子，令投機客有機可趁，推高房價。
對此，國際房地產投資俱樂部創辦人鄭水興告訴《中國報》，的確有部分業者為了炒熱購屋氣氛，刻意製造人潮假象，不過，房價被炒高，並不完全是投機客造成的。
“一些購屋者買屋前不做功課，未事先了解市場情況與自己的能力和需求，很容易被銷售人員的說詞打動，買下貴屋。”
他也不認同，巴生谷一帶房價高企，他說，近期多項以百萬起跳的房地產發展計劃，都不是位于熱點地區，而是以往人們認為偏遠的地段，如甲洞、莎阿南和蒲種的特定地區。
“許多人抱怨熱點地區房價高，實際上並不然，一些地點佳的地段仍然可以買到價格低廉、物有所值的房子，卻被購屋者忽略。”
他舉例，如舊古仔路、班蘭英達、蕉賴，以及沙叻秀等地區，雖然位于策略地點，但房屋售價卻較一些非熱點地區來得低廉。
“購屋者一窩蜂湊熱鬧的買屋心態，很容易就會被一些業者利用。”
他說，購屋者若真的喜歡特定發展商的房屋計劃，除了做功課了解市價外，也應留意相關公司動態，不必等到正式推介才去“搶屋”，因為在推介前訂購的話，售價或許便宜一倍。
降低借貸門檻 貸款簡易
了解市場和本身需求，就可在茫茫「屋」海中做出最佳選擇。
僑豐投資研究一名分析員指出，國內房地產市場自2008年走緩后，去年開始回彈，銀行的簡易貸款是提振低迷房地產市場的推動力。
他說，借貸門檻放低促使購屋者想要投資第二或第三間房子，甚至萌生投機念頭。
他指出，炒樓風早在5至6年前就已出現，不同的是，當時人們“炒”的是中低價公寓，但現在投資者對高檔房地產，尤其是豪華房地產更感興趣。
投資項目的改變主要是因為人口年齡的變化，以70年代后出生者年齡計算，5、6年前時的預算只可以負擔中低價公寓，但隨著收入和家庭穩定，開始尋找更高價位的房地產。
“近年也出現20歲出頭的年輕人也嘗試藉由短線操作，尋求高獲利，不過人數不多，投資高價房地產的多屬財務狀況穩定的退休人士。”
他說，年輕一族投資高價房地產，一般上會尋求父母援助，或請父母擔任擔保人，以便更容易取得貸款。
城鎮概念 決定售價
熱點地區房地產價格以兩位數增幅成長，一些售價更飆升至百萬令吉。
地點已經不是唯一決定房價的主要因素，綜觀近期多項高價位房地產項目都是以發展計劃為導向（Project-oriented），城鎮概念設計和營造成了決定售價的因素。
以近期房地產發展熱點帝沙城市公園（Desa Parkcity）為例，砂拉越三林集團在2000年以2億令吉購下這塊面積達473英畝的採石場地段，當時平均每平方呎價格為10令吉左右。
經過三林集團重新打造成城中休閒勝地后，該地段躍升成為寶地，目前保守估計雙層排樓每平方呎售價達800令吉，在此區塊新建的公寓售價更接近100萬令吉。
馬星集團（MAHSING，8583，主要板房產）與大成集團（MAHAJAYA）聯營發展的Kinrara Residence高檔房地產項目，租借地契的雙層排樓推介初期售價約70萬令吉。
隨著需求大增，在后期售價更超過100萬令吉，鄰近同類型房屋的售價也獲帶動上揚。
由實達集團（SPSETIA，8664，主要板房產）打造的實達生態園（Setia EcoPark）房屋計劃，雖然位于莎阿南，但並不影響房屋計劃的受歡迎程度。
售價介于200萬至300萬令吉以上的首階段雙層排樓項目，甫推出市場即售罄。
量化宽松
[原文]
所谓量化宽松（Quantitative Easing）, 简单来说，就是中央银行“无中生有” ，大量印刷钞票，将之流入民间。
美国如果采取这种政策，其美元就只有走弱下去，以美元为首的热钱将四处流窜，走向美国以外，这将逼使日元、人民币还有其他的货币升值。
馬幣兌美元就明顯地增值，從2009年2月的3.70到目前2010年10月的3.10，或15%以上。(來源)
大馬本地進口商可以進口更多美國出口的產品，如IPHONE、IPAD等高科技產品。
问题在于美国不断“输出” 美元，颁发订单给需要美元的国家，比如说A国。这将制造一个现象：由于A国的制造商获得许多订单，他们将提高生产量，这将促进国家经济。
相反地，大馬本地出口商或生產商收到美國的訂單，可就煩惱了。假設以同樣的製造成本(馬幣)計算，買家以美元支付，利潤就減少，事倍功半。生產商有些還打算少接美國的訂單，沒什麼利潤可圖。不過，原產品出口都以馬幣交易，對種植公司的衝擊應該不大。
经济有成长，人民将获得更可观的收入，打工一族也得到加薪。由于薪水增加，购买力增强，开销增加，欲望需求随着提升，货源不够共应的话，就会起价，通货膨胀跟着来了。
最后，屋价地产也水涨船高，股市大力上扬，原产品价格暴涨，泡沫浮现。
我覺得大馬人民的收入不一定會提高，尤其是打工一族。熱錢流入大馬，主要是往投資性方面，而不是生產性方面。股價、房地產、原產品價格會明顯地增加。因此，官方通膨率也隨之增高。政府會實施加息抑制通膨，以及貨幣管制嗎？
这时，可笑的是，当初始作俑者的美元，已经贬值，而市场上充斥过多的美元供应，导致A国货币增值，但却比不上通货膨胀的速度，多数人民享受不到“富起来” 的感觉，反而越来越有“钱不够用” 的窘态。
“钱不够用”倒是美國人最能感受到，進口商品都漲價了。這時大家還會在發美國夢嗎？移民到美國嗎？
直到有一天，经济过热，泡沫爆破，国家经济不堪打击而倒地。
这就是末日博士为世界所敲的警钟，也是其他大国（除了美国） 的担忧。
如果为了避免这个现象发生，结果你也印钞票、我也印钞票，大家都来量化宽松，最后全球的国债市场将会崩溃，货币的价值将会蒸发，也许世界最后不得不爆发一场战争，以贵金属如黄金为本位，重新出发。
我覺得目前最重要的是考慮如何保存現有的購買力。貴金屬是其中之一，我覺得土地也可以保值。
所幸末日博士对亚洲还是很有信心，觉得她仍然是世界经济动力的火车头。而他之前的四位财务专业分析员也对大马或亚洲未来一年的展望极有信心。
難道伯南克不清楚這些嗎？背後有什麼理由，一定要實施量化宽松政策？這樣真的能復甦美國的經濟嗎？
不過事實上，你不難發現已有很多美國人從美國經濟體內‘逃竄’到中國這個新興經濟體去發展或圓夢。
所谓量化宽松（Quantitative Easing）, 简单来说，就是中央银行“无中生有” ，大量印刷钞票，将之流入民间。
美国如果采取这种政策，其美元就只有走弱下去，以美元为首的热钱将四处流窜，走向美国以外，这将逼使日元、人民币还有其他的货币升值。
馬幣兌美元就明顯地增值，從2009年2月的3.70到目前2010年10月的3.10，或15%以上。(來源)
大馬本地進口商可以進口更多美國出口的產品，如IPHONE、IPAD等高科技產品。
问题在于美国不断“输出” 美元，颁发订单给需要美元的国家，比如说A国。这将制造一个现象：由于A国的制造商获得许多订单，他们将提高生产量，这将促进国家经济。
相反地，大馬本地出口商或生產商收到美國的訂單，可就煩惱了。假設以同樣的製造成本(馬幣)計算，買家以美元支付，利潤就減少，事倍功半。生產商有些還打算少接美國的訂單，沒什麼利潤可圖。不過，原產品出口都以馬幣交易，對種植公司的衝擊應該不大。
经济有成长，人民将获得更可观的收入，打工一族也得到加薪。由于薪水增加，购买力增强，开销增加，欲望需求随着提升，货源不够共应的话，就会起价，通货膨胀跟着来了。
最后，屋价地产也水涨船高，股市大力上扬，原产品价格暴涨，泡沫浮现。
我覺得大馬人民的收入不一定會提高，尤其是打工一族。熱錢流入大馬，主要是往投資性方面，而不是生產性方面。股價、房地產、原產品價格會明顯地增加。因此，官方通膨率也隨之增高。政府會實施加息抑制通膨，以及貨幣管制嗎？
这时，可笑的是，当初始作俑者的美元，已经贬值，而市场上充斥过多的美元供应，导致A国货币增值，但却比不上通货膨胀的速度，多数人民享受不到“富起来” 的感觉，反而越来越有“钱不够用” 的窘态。
“钱不够用”倒是美國人最能感受到，進口商品都漲價了。這時大家還會在發美國夢嗎？移民到美國嗎？
直到有一天，经济过热，泡沫爆破，国家经济不堪打击而倒地。
这就是末日博士为世界所敲的警钟，也是其他大国（除了美国） 的担忧。
如果为了避免这个现象发生，结果你也印钞票、我也印钞票，大家都来量化宽松，最后全球的国债市场将会崩溃，货币的价值将会蒸发，也许世界最后不得不爆发一场战争，以贵金属如黄金为本位，重新出发。
我覺得目前最重要的是考慮如何保存現有的購買力。貴金屬是其中之一，我覺得土地也可以保值。
所幸末日博士对亚洲还是很有信心，觉得她仍然是世界经济动力的火车头。而他之前的四位财务专业分析员也对大马或亚洲未来一年的展望极有信心。
難道伯南克不清楚這些嗎？背後有什麼理由，一定要實施量化宽松政策？這樣真的能復甦美國的經濟嗎？
不過事實上，你不難發現已有很多美國人從美國經濟體內‘逃竄’到中國這個新興經濟體去發展或圓夢。
Friday, November 19, 2010
KNM Group Bhd expects a rebound
KNM Group Bhd expects a rebound in its order book next year following the market recovery seen currently.
'We have a tender book of RM16 billion currently. With the market recovery seen, we hope to convert the tenders to our order books next year,' chief executive officer Lee Swee Eng said, after concluding the company's Extraordinary General Meeting (EGM) in Kuala Lumpur today.
'More customers are willing to invest, following the recovery of the industry and a much more steady oil price,' he added.
He added to date, the company has achieved an orderbook of more than RM2 billion, including a RM680 million new material contract announced yesterday.
The new material contract is for the supply of process equipment for the development of gas condensate fields in Uzbekisatan.
'We hope next year will be better with a rebound as we are already picking up on major orders at present,' Lee said.
At the three-hour long EGM today, shareholders approved a resolution to consolidate the company's shares into one RM1 share for every four existing RM0.25 sen shares held currently.
The exercise will reduce the company's existing four billion shares to only one billion.
'The motion carried today is to help the company improve its share structure, making it easier to manage, with lesser number of shares,' Lee explained.
When asked about the prospects of privatising the company, he declined to comment on any possibilities, in the future.
The KNM Group's major customers are international oil, gas, petrochemicals, energy and mineral processing companies and global engineering contractors.
'We have a tender book of RM16 billion currently. With the market recovery seen, we hope to convert the tenders to our order books next year,' chief executive officer Lee Swee Eng said, after concluding the company's Extraordinary General Meeting (EGM) in Kuala Lumpur today.
'More customers are willing to invest, following the recovery of the industry and a much more steady oil price,' he added.
He added to date, the company has achieved an orderbook of more than RM2 billion, including a RM680 million new material contract announced yesterday.
The new material contract is for the supply of process equipment for the development of gas condensate fields in Uzbekisatan.
'We hope next year will be better with a rebound as we are already picking up on major orders at present,' Lee said.
At the three-hour long EGM today, shareholders approved a resolution to consolidate the company's shares into one RM1 share for every four existing RM0.25 sen shares held currently.
The exercise will reduce the company's existing four billion shares to only one billion.
'The motion carried today is to help the company improve its share structure, making it easier to manage, with lesser number of shares,' Lee explained.
When asked about the prospects of privatising the company, he declined to comment on any possibilities, in the future.
The KNM Group's major customers are international oil, gas, petrochemicals, energy and mineral processing companies and global engineering contractors.
Zelan sinks deeper into red on cost overruns at overseas projects
KUALA LUMPUR: ZELAN BHD [] sank deeper into the red with losses of RM35.1 million, surpassing its revenue of RM30.70 million in the second quarter ended Sept 30, 2010 following cost overruns at its overseas projects.
It said on Friday, Nov 19 the 2Q net loss was worse than the net loss of RM13.85 million a year ago. Revenue fell sharply to only RM30.70 million, down 91.3% from RM351.79 million. Loss per share was 6.23 sen compared with 2.45 sen.
'This is due to lower contributions from the overseas projects of the engineering and CONSTRUCTION [] business unit,' it said.
Explaining the 2Q net loss it said it was mainly due to higher losses incurred by the existing overseas projects of the engineering and construction business unit.
'These projects encountered cost overrun due to material price escalation, under-budgeted items and additional costs arising from work delays offset by gain on sale of investments,' it said.
For the six months, net loss was RM34.23 million on the back of RM128.81 million compared with net loss of RM9.54 million and revenue of RM724.31 million in the previous corresponding period.
As of Sept 30, the group's current liabilities exceeded their current assets by RM72.24 million.
Zelan had partially disposed off its available-for-sale investment and received gross proceeds of about RM48.3 million between October and November 2010.
The proceeds from the disposal were used to repay borrowings and for working capital.
It said on Friday, Nov 19 the 2Q net loss was worse than the net loss of RM13.85 million a year ago. Revenue fell sharply to only RM30.70 million, down 91.3% from RM351.79 million. Loss per share was 6.23 sen compared with 2.45 sen.
'This is due to lower contributions from the overseas projects of the engineering and CONSTRUCTION [] business unit,' it said.
Explaining the 2Q net loss it said it was mainly due to higher losses incurred by the existing overseas projects of the engineering and construction business unit.
'These projects encountered cost overrun due to material price escalation, under-budgeted items and additional costs arising from work delays offset by gain on sale of investments,' it said.
For the six months, net loss was RM34.23 million on the back of RM128.81 million compared with net loss of RM9.54 million and revenue of RM724.31 million in the previous corresponding period.
As of Sept 30, the group's current liabilities exceeded their current assets by RM72.24 million.
Zelan had partially disposed off its available-for-sale investment and received gross proceeds of about RM48.3 million between October and November 2010.
The proceeds from the disposal were used to repay borrowings and for working capital.
FBM KLCI rebounds
KUALA LUMPUR: The FBM KLCI rebounded on Friday, Nov 19 in line with the overnight gains at Wall Street and the generally positive sentiment at the regional markets.
At mid-morning, the 30-stock index was up 6.76 points to 1,503.41. Gainers outpaced losers by 362 to 88, while 193 counters traded unchanged. Volume was 253.92 million shares valued at RM233.14 million.
RHB Research Institute Sdn Bhd said that the FBM KLCI's recovery yesterday had managed to sustain the index at above the 40-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of 1,490.
This means another chance for it to stage a technical rebound from the recent selldown today, it said.
'However, given the slight downward tick on the 10-day SMA near 1,511 and the poor state of the short-term momentum readings, trading activities are likely to stay under pressure.
'Although the overnight rally in US markets may lift buying instinct slightly, the possibility of more tightening measures ahead in China may dampen appetite, investors are more likely to apply the 'wait-and-see' strategy before jumping back onto the bandwagon, in our view,' it said in a note Nov 19.
The research house expects range-bound trading today as the FBM KLCI fluctuates between the two SMAs (1,490 ' 1,511), with most investors staying sideline ahead of the weekend.
On Bursa Malaysia, QSR Brands and KFCH were among the top gainers before the counters requested for trading halt from 9.30am pending a material announcement. QSR was up 29 sen to RM5.76 while KFCH added 28 sen to RM4.25.
Among the other gainers, Nestle rose 28 sen to RM43.48, Genting was up 20 sen to RM10.24, Warisan up 17 sen to RM2.62, Hong Leong Industries gained 16 sen to RM5.76, Batu Kawan up 14 sen to RM15.74 while Kulim, which also requested for a trading halt of its shares from 9.30am, was up 16 sen to RM13.54 prior to its suspension.
Among the decliners, Kawan Food fell six sen to RM1.42, Daibochi down five sen to RM2.73, while NPC, Narra, Petronas Dagangan, LBI Capital and Masterskill fell four sen each to RM2.16, 63.5 sen, RM11.16, 69 sen and RM2.21 respectively.
KNM, which has landed a US$216 million job in Uzbekistan, was the most actively traded counter with 19.2 million shares done. The stock added 1.5 sen to 45 sen. Other actives included Jotech, Salcon, Tejari, Ho Wah Genting and Karambunai.
At the regional markets, Japan's Nikkei 225 was up 0.61% to 10,074.55, Taiwan's Taiex was up 0.89% to 8,356.81, the South Korean Kospi added 0.27% to 1,933.04, while Singapore's Straits Times Index and the Shanghai Composite Index shed 0.02% each to 3,214.45 and 2,864.91, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index opened 0.1% lower at 23,612.24.
At mid-morning, the 30-stock index was up 6.76 points to 1,503.41. Gainers outpaced losers by 362 to 88, while 193 counters traded unchanged. Volume was 253.92 million shares valued at RM233.14 million.
RHB Research Institute Sdn Bhd said that the FBM KLCI's recovery yesterday had managed to sustain the index at above the 40-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of 1,490.
This means another chance for it to stage a technical rebound from the recent selldown today, it said.
'However, given the slight downward tick on the 10-day SMA near 1,511 and the poor state of the short-term momentum readings, trading activities are likely to stay under pressure.
'Although the overnight rally in US markets may lift buying instinct slightly, the possibility of more tightening measures ahead in China may dampen appetite, investors are more likely to apply the 'wait-and-see' strategy before jumping back onto the bandwagon, in our view,' it said in a note Nov 19.
The research house expects range-bound trading today as the FBM KLCI fluctuates between the two SMAs (1,490 ' 1,511), with most investors staying sideline ahead of the weekend.
On Bursa Malaysia, QSR Brands and KFCH were among the top gainers before the counters requested for trading halt from 9.30am pending a material announcement. QSR was up 29 sen to RM5.76 while KFCH added 28 sen to RM4.25.
Among the other gainers, Nestle rose 28 sen to RM43.48, Genting was up 20 sen to RM10.24, Warisan up 17 sen to RM2.62, Hong Leong Industries gained 16 sen to RM5.76, Batu Kawan up 14 sen to RM15.74 while Kulim, which also requested for a trading halt of its shares from 9.30am, was up 16 sen to RM13.54 prior to its suspension.
Among the decliners, Kawan Food fell six sen to RM1.42, Daibochi down five sen to RM2.73, while NPC, Narra, Petronas Dagangan, LBI Capital and Masterskill fell four sen each to RM2.16, 63.5 sen, RM11.16, 69 sen and RM2.21 respectively.
KNM, which has landed a US$216 million job in Uzbekistan, was the most actively traded counter with 19.2 million shares done. The stock added 1.5 sen to 45 sen. Other actives included Jotech, Salcon, Tejari, Ho Wah Genting and Karambunai.
At the regional markets, Japan's Nikkei 225 was up 0.61% to 10,074.55, Taiwan's Taiex was up 0.89% to 8,356.81, the South Korean Kospi added 0.27% to 1,933.04, while Singapore's Straits Times Index and the Shanghai Composite Index shed 0.02% each to 3,214.45 and 2,864.91, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index opened 0.1% lower at 23,612.24.
KNM - OSK Research upgrades KNM to Trading Buy
Stock Name: KNM
Company Name: KNM GROUP BHD
Research House: OSK
KUALA LUMPUR: OSK Research has upgraded KNM GROUP BHD [] to a Trading Buy with a Target Price of 56 sen after securing a US$216 million (RM680 million) bid to develop gas condensate fields in Uzbekistan from Lukoil Uzbekistan Operating Company.
The research house said on Friday, Nov 19 KNM's current share price has an upside of about 29% to its target price of 56 sen which it derived based on a PER of 9x FY11 earnings.
'We are upgrading our call to Trading Buy from Neutral previously,' it said. 'We believe its share price would react positively to this big one-off contract in the short term.'
OSK Research said for KNM's share price sustainability in the longer term, investors would need assurance on the
continuous contract flows which it still doubted as the global O&G industry had not fully reached its recovery stage in the past 12 months although crude oil price had stabilised between US$70 to US$80 a barrel over the period.
It said as more countries raise interest rates, this may suppress the global economic growth, which then result in lower demand for energy (O&G) and this again may delay the oil majors and national oil companies from spending further capex.
'Do note that KNM is a global O&G process equipment company and hence its business is dependent on the health of the global economy rather than Malaysia alone. Therefore, we have a Trading Buy call on the stock rather than a Buy,' it said.
Company Name: KNM GROUP BHD
Research House: OSK
KUALA LUMPUR: OSK Research has upgraded KNM GROUP BHD [] to a Trading Buy with a Target Price of 56 sen after securing a US$216 million (RM680 million) bid to develop gas condensate fields in Uzbekistan from Lukoil Uzbekistan Operating Company.
The research house said on Friday, Nov 19 KNM's current share price has an upside of about 29% to its target price of 56 sen which it derived based on a PER of 9x FY11 earnings.
'We are upgrading our call to Trading Buy from Neutral previously,' it said. 'We believe its share price would react positively to this big one-off contract in the short term.'
OSK Research said for KNM's share price sustainability in the longer term, investors would need assurance on the
continuous contract flows which it still doubted as the global O&G industry had not fully reached its recovery stage in the past 12 months although crude oil price had stabilised between US$70 to US$80 a barrel over the period.
It said as more countries raise interest rates, this may suppress the global economic growth, which then result in lower demand for energy (O&G) and this again may delay the oil majors and national oil companies from spending further capex.
'Do note that KNM is a global O&G process equipment company and hence its business is dependent on the health of the global economy rather than Malaysia alone. Therefore, we have a Trading Buy call on the stock rather than a Buy,' it said.
SUNREIT - OSK Research Neutral on Sunway REIT, TP 98c
Stock Name: SUNREIT
Company Name: SUNWAY REAL ESTATE INVT TRUST
Research House: OSK
KUALA LUMPUR: OSK Research has initiated coverage of Sunway Real Estate Investment Trust (Sunway REIT), which is the largest Malaysian REIT (M-REIT) with an asset size of RM3.7bn and a free float of about RM1.6bn.
It said on Friday, Nov 19 that it has accorded a Neutral call on Sunway REIT at 98 sen based on 1.0 times P/NAV with a Neutral call.
OSK Research said Sunway REIT provided investors with exposure to the retail, hospitality and office sub-sectors, Sunway REIT is a defensive REIT that offers unit holders a longer-term growth catalyst.
'Given its low dividend yield of 6.7% (vs the sector's 8.0%) and the fact that it will be trading at 1.0x P/NAV, Sunway REIT may likely to appeal to only certain classes of investors, especially those with a defensive investment strategy,' it said.
Company Name: SUNWAY REAL ESTATE INVT TRUST
Research House: OSK
KUALA LUMPUR: OSK Research has initiated coverage of Sunway Real Estate Investment Trust (Sunway REIT), which is the largest Malaysian REIT (M-REIT) with an asset size of RM3.7bn and a free float of about RM1.6bn.
It said on Friday, Nov 19 that it has accorded a Neutral call on Sunway REIT at 98 sen based on 1.0 times P/NAV with a Neutral call.
OSK Research said Sunway REIT provided investors with exposure to the retail, hospitality and office sub-sectors, Sunway REIT is a defensive REIT that offers unit holders a longer-term growth catalyst.
'Given its low dividend yield of 6.7% (vs the sector's 8.0%) and the fact that it will be trading at 1.0x P/NAV, Sunway REIT may likely to appeal to only certain classes of investors, especially those with a defensive investment strategy,' it said.
Thursday, November 18, 2010
底薪少‧卡債多‧申請房貸難
王小姐，今年24歲，她計劃與男友購買一間新建房屋，作為2011或2012年結婚後的新屋。
可以幫我計算我們需要籌備多少資金，每個月必須維持多少薪水才能支付一間新屋的供期？
我們打算買新屋後其中兩間房出租，以便減輕我們的供屋負擔。
我們打算購屋首期錢用我們公積金的第二戶頭支付，兩人的第二戶頭有1萬4千令吉。現有一筆5千令吉的儲蓄。
銀行以底薪做衡量基礎
王小姐最主要的問題是，以她及男友微薄的底薪，是否能購買一個房產單位供結婚後的新居。
雖然兩人各有相等於薪金水平的傭金收入，不過，銀行在考量客戶提出產業貸款申請時，通常以底薪做為衡量基礎，至於傭金只能輔助，與花紅被列為輔助的情況有些類似。
當然，我們可以說傭金收入相當平穩，儘管有起有落，但平均起來至少有1千令吉做為申請根基，也許在爭取銀行的批准會比較有利。
我們不曉得王小姐準備在哪一個州屬購買房產，在大馬不同的州屬，產業的價格會有一些落差，這是不爭的事實，好比說在巴生河流域，15萬令吉也許只能購買到一個公寓單位，但在其他一些州屬，或許可以購買到一間單層排屋。
另外，以兩人的底薪來看，信用卡債數目龐大，男友尚有一筆1千令吉的分期付款要償還，單看這些數據，明顯反映每月介於入不敷出的處境，雖然數據顯示，每月有盈餘供儲蓄，也許是傭金數目不只1千200令吉。
卡債超出底薪數額
提到信用卡這個項目，我們比較不明白的是，何以數目如此偏高，可以說超出兩人的底薪數額。
雖然購買房屋可以提取公積金儲蓄，但公積金儲蓄數目不多，申請提取是否獲准也是個疑問，而且有時在提出申請，申請獲批，公積金局發出支票，是否來得及應付簽署買賣合約需繳付的10%首期錢，這也是一個要考量的因素。
另外，目前手上只有一筆5千令吉的儲蓄存款，遠遠不及所需的數目，如果能將這管存款倍增，譬如增至1萬或1萬5千令吉，這樣要進行產業購買也比較得心應手。
我們先以一間15萬令吉的單位為估算基礎，10%首期錢加上相關費用，至少要2萬令吉，如果這兩年內能籌足這筆數目，可以按計劃去物色一個適合的單位。
假如銀行基以兩人結合起來的收入加上傭金3千令吉，在沒有供車負擔的情況下給予批准，房貸分期付款可以在1千令吉之間。
由於兩人還年輕，購買的房屋價格如果不超過15萬令吉，房貸分期可以選擇15年期，假如購買價格20萬令吉的房屋，提出18萬令吉貸款的申請獲批，可以選擇20年供期，分期付款在1千令吉左右。
首期錢最大關鍵
最大的關鍵在於擁有一筆足夠的購屋首期錢，以及申請貸款能夠獲批准，只要過了這些關卡，日後能夠將開銷控制在一定水平內，或者如信中所指的將其中兩個房間出租，自然可以減輕房貸壓力。
假如銀行堅持以基薪做為考量基礎，就是兩人結合收入2千令吉為准，購買一間15萬令吉的房屋、貸款90%，每月供期若不超過700令吉，供期拉長至20年，獲批的可能性還是存在的。
[星洲日報／投資致富‧財富問診室‧2010.11.14]
可以幫我計算我們需要籌備多少資金，每個月必須維持多少薪水才能支付一間新屋的供期？
我們打算買新屋後其中兩間房出租，以便減輕我們的供屋負擔。
我們打算購屋首期錢用我們公積金的第二戶頭支付，兩人的第二戶頭有1萬4千令吉。現有一筆5千令吉的儲蓄。
銀行以底薪做衡量基礎
王小姐最主要的問題是，以她及男友微薄的底薪，是否能購買一個房產單位供結婚後的新居。
雖然兩人各有相等於薪金水平的傭金收入，不過，銀行在考量客戶提出產業貸款申請時，通常以底薪做為衡量基礎，至於傭金只能輔助，與花紅被列為輔助的情況有些類似。
當然，我們可以說傭金收入相當平穩，儘管有起有落，但平均起來至少有1千令吉做為申請根基，也許在爭取銀行的批准會比較有利。
我們不曉得王小姐準備在哪一個州屬購買房產，在大馬不同的州屬，產業的價格會有一些落差，這是不爭的事實，好比說在巴生河流域，15萬令吉也許只能購買到一個公寓單位，但在其他一些州屬，或許可以購買到一間單層排屋。
另外，以兩人的底薪來看，信用卡債數目龐大，男友尚有一筆1千令吉的分期付款要償還，單看這些數據，明顯反映每月介於入不敷出的處境，雖然數據顯示，每月有盈餘供儲蓄，也許是傭金數目不只1千200令吉。
卡債超出底薪數額
提到信用卡這個項目，我們比較不明白的是，何以數目如此偏高，可以說超出兩人的底薪數額。
雖然購買房屋可以提取公積金儲蓄，但公積金儲蓄數目不多，申請提取是否獲准也是個疑問，而且有時在提出申請，申請獲批，公積金局發出支票，是否來得及應付簽署買賣合約需繳付的10%首期錢，這也是一個要考量的因素。
另外，目前手上只有一筆5千令吉的儲蓄存款，遠遠不及所需的數目，如果能將這管存款倍增，譬如增至1萬或1萬5千令吉，這樣要進行產業購買也比較得心應手。
我們先以一間15萬令吉的單位為估算基礎，10%首期錢加上相關費用，至少要2萬令吉，如果這兩年內能籌足這筆數目，可以按計劃去物色一個適合的單位。
假如銀行基以兩人結合起來的收入加上傭金3千令吉，在沒有供車負擔的情況下給予批准，房貸分期付款可以在1千令吉之間。
由於兩人還年輕，購買的房屋價格如果不超過15萬令吉，房貸分期可以選擇15年期，假如購買價格20萬令吉的房屋，提出18萬令吉貸款的申請獲批，可以選擇20年供期，分期付款在1千令吉左右。
首期錢最大關鍵
最大的關鍵在於擁有一筆足夠的購屋首期錢，以及申請貸款能夠獲批准，只要過了這些關卡，日後能夠將開銷控制在一定水平內，或者如信中所指的將其中兩個房間出租，自然可以減輕房貸壓力。
假如銀行堅持以基薪做為考量基礎，就是兩人結合收入2千令吉為准，購買一間15萬令吉的房屋、貸款90%，每月供期若不超過700令吉，供期拉長至20年，獲批的可能性還是存在的。
[星洲日報／投資致富‧財富問診室‧2010.11.14]
KENCANA - A new partner in the pipeline for Kencana?
Stock Name: KENCANA
Company Name: KENCANA PETROLEUM BHD
Research House: CIMB
Kencana Petroleum Bhd
(Nov 15, RM2)
Maintain outperform at RM1.98 with target price RM2.28: Over the weekend, The Edge quoted Kencana's CEO Datuk Mokhzani Mahathir as saying that he was not paring down his stake in the company. He also denied speculation that McDermott is looking to buy up to 5% of his holdings in Kencana. However, he confirmed that the company is considering raising funds for its expansion plans.
We are not surprised by the denial as Mokhzani has been consistently clear about his commitment to Kencana, which he bought into well before the company listed in 2006. He owns 38.6% of Kencana directly and indirectly through Khasera Baru Sdn Bhd. The other substantial shareholder is the Employees Provident Fund with an 8.2% stake.
As for the involvement with McDermott, we understand that the US-based company may surface as a JV partner of Kencana instead of a shareholder. We believe Kencana could be interested in working with McDermott to build a pipeline installation business after its attempt with US-based Global'' failed earlier this year.
Following the breakdown of the JV with Global in May, Kencana has maintained its interest in owning and operating pipelay barges, either by going it alone or by roping in a partner. McDermott has extensive experience in Malaysia and has been working closely with Bumi Armada in the pipeline installation business.
As a 2,000-tonne shallow-water pipelay barge would cost no less than US$100 million (RM314 million), Kencana may issue new shares to beef up its war chest and reduce borrowings. As at end-July, the company had borrowings of RM228 million, which amounted to 30% of shareholders' funds. At last Friday's closing price, a 10% private placement would raise gross proceeds of RM328 million. Kencana has received shareholders' approval for a private placement but the time line of the exercise has not been disclosed.
On Nov 11, Kencana's share price scaled to a new all-time high of RM2.11 before closing at RM2.03 with 31 million shares traded. Apart from the possibility of a new JV partner, order book expansion may have been a catalyst of the share price jump and active trade. In our visit note dated Nov 2, we wrote that Kencana is eyeing deals worth RM5.2 billion in Malaysia and at least US$300 million in India. We understand that the contract that may be awarded sooner than the others is the RM600 million fabrication contract given out by Petroliam Nasional Bhd (Petronas) and its production-sharing contractors. Year-to-date, the company has secured 12 jobs worth RM819 million, bringing its order book value to RM1.9 billion.
The potential entrance of a new high-profile partner adds to Kencana's attractions. The company is already benefiting from a steady flow of projects in Malaysia, Vietnam, India and Australia, and is expected to expand its order book. We maintain our EPS forecast and target price of RM2.28, pegged to an unchanged target market PER of 13.8 times. We continue to rate Kencana an outperform, with the potential share price triggers being: (i) active order book replenishment; (ii) a new JV partner; and (iii) M&A. ' CIMB Research
This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily
Company Name: KENCANA PETROLEUM BHD
Research House: CIMB
Kencana Petroleum Bhd
(Nov 15, RM2)
Maintain outperform at RM1.98 with target price RM2.28: Over the weekend, The Edge quoted Kencana's CEO Datuk Mokhzani Mahathir as saying that he was not paring down his stake in the company. He also denied speculation that McDermott is looking to buy up to 5% of his holdings in Kencana. However, he confirmed that the company is considering raising funds for its expansion plans.
We are not surprised by the denial as Mokhzani has been consistently clear about his commitment to Kencana, which he bought into well before the company listed in 2006. He owns 38.6% of Kencana directly and indirectly through Khasera Baru Sdn Bhd. The other substantial shareholder is the Employees Provident Fund with an 8.2% stake.
As for the involvement with McDermott, we understand that the US-based company may surface as a JV partner of Kencana instead of a shareholder. We believe Kencana could be interested in working with McDermott to build a pipeline installation business after its attempt with US-based Global'' failed earlier this year.
Following the breakdown of the JV with Global in May, Kencana has maintained its interest in owning and operating pipelay barges, either by going it alone or by roping in a partner. McDermott has extensive experience in Malaysia and has been working closely with Bumi Armada in the pipeline installation business.
As a 2,000-tonne shallow-water pipelay barge would cost no less than US$100 million (RM314 million), Kencana may issue new shares to beef up its war chest and reduce borrowings. As at end-July, the company had borrowings of RM228 million, which amounted to 30% of shareholders' funds. At last Friday's closing price, a 10% private placement would raise gross proceeds of RM328 million. Kencana has received shareholders' approval for a private placement but the time line of the exercise has not been disclosed.
On Nov 11, Kencana's share price scaled to a new all-time high of RM2.11 before closing at RM2.03 with 31 million shares traded. Apart from the possibility of a new JV partner, order book expansion may have been a catalyst of the share price jump and active trade. In our visit note dated Nov 2, we wrote that Kencana is eyeing deals worth RM5.2 billion in Malaysia and at least US$300 million in India. We understand that the contract that may be awarded sooner than the others is the RM600 million fabrication contract given out by Petroliam Nasional Bhd (Petronas) and its production-sharing contractors. Year-to-date, the company has secured 12 jobs worth RM819 million, bringing its order book value to RM1.9 billion.
The potential entrance of a new high-profile partner adds to Kencana's attractions. The company is already benefiting from a steady flow of projects in Malaysia, Vietnam, India and Australia, and is expected to expand its order book. We maintain our EPS forecast and target price of RM2.28, pegged to an unchanged target market PER of 13.8 times. We continue to rate Kencana an outperform, with the potential share price triggers being: (i) active order book replenishment; (ii) a new JV partner; and (iii) M&A. ' CIMB Research
This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily
Tuesday, November 16, 2010
PBA - OSK Research maintains Buy on PBA, lowers target price
Stock Name: PBA
Company Name: PBA HOLDINGS BHD
Research House: OSK
KUALA LUMPUR: KUALA LUMPUR: OSK Research said'' PBA HOLDINGS BHD []'s (PBA) earnings came in below its expectations as a sudden surge in costs during 3Q washed out its estimates.
OSK Research said on Tuesday, Nov 16 that although it was unable to reach management for immediate comment, it reckoned that this was largely due to higher chemical and maintenance expenses.
'The latest development prompts us to revise our earnings lower this year and going forward, as well as cut our target price to RM1.35 from RM1.48 previously. The stock is maintained as a BUY,' it said.
Company Name: PBA HOLDINGS BHD
Research House: OSK
KUALA LUMPUR: KUALA LUMPUR: OSK Research said'' PBA HOLDINGS BHD []'s (PBA) earnings came in below its expectations as a sudden surge in costs during 3Q washed out its estimates.
OSK Research said on Tuesday, Nov 16 that although it was unable to reach management for immediate comment, it reckoned that this was largely due to higher chemical and maintenance expenses.
'The latest development prompts us to revise our earnings lower this year and going forward, as well as cut our target price to RM1.35 from RM1.48 previously. The stock is maintained as a BUY,' it said.
PARKSON - ECM keeps 'buy' call on Parkson
Stock Name: PARKSON
Company Name: PARKSON HOLDINGS BHD
Research House: ECMLIBRA
ECM Libra Investment Research has maintained its "buy" call on Parkson Holdings, with the target price unchanged at RM6.70.
In a research note today, it said the target price is unchanged, pending an anticipated better results in the second quarter financial year 2011, due to year-end festivities and strengthening domestic consumption growth in China and Malaysia.
The research house said Parkson's first quarter financial year 2011 core net profit of RM76.2 million was in line with its expectations.
Parkson's net profit rose by 18 per cent year-on-year in spite of revenue increasing by only two per cent.
"The weak revenue growth was the result of lower ringgit-denominated revenue given the currency''s strength against the Chinese renminbi and Vietnamese dong," it explained.
Company Name: PARKSON HOLDINGS BHD
Research House: ECMLIBRA
ECM Libra Investment Research has maintained its "buy" call on Parkson Holdings, with the target price unchanged at RM6.70.
In a research note today, it said the target price is unchanged, pending an anticipated better results in the second quarter financial year 2011, due to year-end festivities and strengthening domestic consumption growth in China and Malaysia.
The research house said Parkson's first quarter financial year 2011 core net profit of RM76.2 million was in line with its expectations.
Parkson's net profit rose by 18 per cent year-on-year in spite of revenue increasing by only two per cent.
"The weak revenue growth was the result of lower ringgit-denominated revenue given the currency''s strength against the Chinese renminbi and Vietnamese dong," it explained.
TCHONG - OSK keeps 'buy' call on Tan Chong
Stock Name: TCHONG
Company Name: TAN CHONG MOTOR HOLDINGS BHD
Research House: OSK
OSK Research has maintained a "buy" call on Tan Chong Motor Holdings over the company's structural changes that will see an increase in volume and earnings over the next three years.
Recently, the company had announced its intentions to set up a manufacturing plant in Kota Kinabalu Industrial Park, Sabah, with a RM285 million investment over five years on a 20-hectare site.
"Tan Chong is expected to kickstart production sometime in the second quarter of 2012 with an initial output of 3,000 units at its Navara assembly line, which would cost US$15 million at most in the first phase," OSK Research said in a statement today.
It has maintained its target price of RM7.29 on the company as well.
"With production to commence and noting that the upcoming Navara's content would be localised, which translates into higher margins, we have increased our units sold assumption by an additional 1,000 for 2012.
"This effectively nudges up our earnings estimates for 2012 by 4.7 per cent, for a year-on-year growth of 30 per cent for the year, which will also be boosted by its Indochina foray and localised B-segment model," it said.
The research house also noted that Sabah currently lacks a conducive supply chain and infrastrucutre to support the company's venture.
"However, we may potentially see Tan Chong luring other global original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) in establishing new manufacturing bases in Sabah, noting the high possibility that it could also bring APM Automotive Holding Berhad into Sabah going forward.
"We do not rule out the possibility of Tan Chong becoming an assembler of other margues given the sizeable land that it is acquiring," it said.
Company Name: TAN CHONG MOTOR HOLDINGS BHD
Research House: OSK
OSK Research has maintained a "buy" call on Tan Chong Motor Holdings over the company's structural changes that will see an increase in volume and earnings over the next three years.
Recently, the company had announced its intentions to set up a manufacturing plant in Kota Kinabalu Industrial Park, Sabah, with a RM285 million investment over five years on a 20-hectare site.
"Tan Chong is expected to kickstart production sometime in the second quarter of 2012 with an initial output of 3,000 units at its Navara assembly line, which would cost US$15 million at most in the first phase," OSK Research said in a statement today.
It has maintained its target price of RM7.29 on the company as well.
"With production to commence and noting that the upcoming Navara's content would be localised, which translates into higher margins, we have increased our units sold assumption by an additional 1,000 for 2012.
"This effectively nudges up our earnings estimates for 2012 by 4.7 per cent, for a year-on-year growth of 30 per cent for the year, which will also be boosted by its Indochina foray and localised B-segment model," it said.
The research house also noted that Sabah currently lacks a conducive supply chain and infrastrucutre to support the company's venture.
"However, we may potentially see Tan Chong luring other global original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) in establishing new manufacturing bases in Sabah, noting the high possibility that it could also bring APM Automotive Holding Berhad into Sabah going forward.
"We do not rule out the possibility of Tan Chong becoming an assembler of other margues given the sizeable land that it is acquiring," it said.
Monday, November 15, 2010
AMMB - MIMB lifts AMMB profit forecast
Stock Name: AMMB
Company Name: AMMB HOLDINGS BHD
Research House: MIMB
MIMB Investment Bank Bhd has revised upwards, AMMB Holdings Bhd's net profit forecast for financial year 2011 and 2012, to RM1.35 billion and RM1.60 billion respectively from RM1.228 billion and RM1.33 billion respectively.
"With the improved operating environment and slightly better-than-expected results, we have fine-tuned our estimated financial year 2011 and 2012 net profit by 5.5 per cent and 20.3 per cent respectively," said MIMB Investment in a research note today.
AMMB posted a 40.7 per cent increase in profit after tax and minority interests to RM701.2 million in the first half of its financial year ending March 31, 2011.
Revenue during the period rose to RM3.477 billion from RM3.155 billion previously.
MIMB Investment said AMMB's reported first half financial year ending March 2011 net profit of RM701.16 million, accounted for 54.7 per cent of its previous full year estimate of RM1.28 billion.
It also raised AMMB's 2011 fair value to RM6.40 from RM5.60, representing a price-to-book (P/BV) ratio of 1.9x and 1.7x for financial year 2011 and 2012 on the back of an estimated Return On Equity (ROE) of 13.5 per cent and 14.6 per cent respectively.
Company Name: AMMB HOLDINGS BHD
Research House: MIMB
MIMB Investment Bank Bhd has revised upwards, AMMB Holdings Bhd's net profit forecast for financial year 2011 and 2012, to RM1.35 billion and RM1.60 billion respectively from RM1.228 billion and RM1.33 billion respectively.
"With the improved operating environment and slightly better-than-expected results, we have fine-tuned our estimated financial year 2011 and 2012 net profit by 5.5 per cent and 20.3 per cent respectively," said MIMB Investment in a research note today.
AMMB posted a 40.7 per cent increase in profit after tax and minority interests to RM701.2 million in the first half of its financial year ending March 31, 2011.
Revenue during the period rose to RM3.477 billion from RM3.155 billion previously.
MIMB Investment said AMMB's reported first half financial year ending March 2011 net profit of RM701.16 million, accounted for 54.7 per cent of its previous full year estimate of RM1.28 billion.
It also raised AMMB's 2011 fair value to RM6.40 from RM5.60, representing a price-to-book (P/BV) ratio of 1.9x and 1.7x for financial year 2011 and 2012 on the back of an estimated Return On Equity (ROE) of 13.5 per cent and 14.6 per cent respectively.
MAYBANK - Maybank Q1 profit within expectation
Stock Name: MAYBANK
Company Name: MALAYAN BANKING BHD
Research House: MIMB
The first quarter financial year 2011 net profit for Malayan Banking Bhd (Maybank), is within expectations, said MIMB Investment Bank Bhd in a research note today.
With the improved operating environment and earnings prospect especially in Indonesia, the research house has fine-tuned its financial year 2011 and 2012 net profit estimates by 3.4 per cent and 0.9 per cent respectively.
"Even so, we reckon that the calendar year 2011 fair value of Maybank should be pegged at RM9.46, representing a price to book ratio of 2.3x and 2.2x for financial year 2011 and 2012 respectively," it said.
MIMB has downgraded the stock from a trading buy to neutral.
Maybank's first quarter financial year 2011 net profit of RM1.0 billion grew 16.6 per cent and 12.7 per cent on year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter respectively.
" The result is pretty much in-line with our previous full year estimates of RM4.09 billion. With the improved operating environment and earnings prospect, especially in Indonesia, we have revised our estimations.
"We have revised upward the estimated financial year 2011 and financial year 2012 net profit to RM4.23 billion and RM4.52 billion respectively, from the RM4.09 billion and RM4.48 billion," it added.
Company Name: MALAYAN BANKING BHD
Research House: MIMB
The first quarter financial year 2011 net profit for Malayan Banking Bhd (Maybank), is within expectations, said MIMB Investment Bank Bhd in a research note today.
With the improved operating environment and earnings prospect especially in Indonesia, the research house has fine-tuned its financial year 2011 and 2012 net profit estimates by 3.4 per cent and 0.9 per cent respectively.
"Even so, we reckon that the calendar year 2011 fair value of Maybank should be pegged at RM9.46, representing a price to book ratio of 2.3x and 2.2x for financial year 2011 and 2012 respectively," it said.
MIMB has downgraded the stock from a trading buy to neutral.
Maybank's first quarter financial year 2011 net profit of RM1.0 billion grew 16.6 per cent and 12.7 per cent on year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter respectively.
" The result is pretty much in-line with our previous full year estimates of RM4.09 billion. With the improved operating environment and earnings prospect, especially in Indonesia, we have revised our estimations.
"We have revised upward the estimated financial year 2011 and financial year 2012 net profit to RM4.23 billion and RM4.52 billion respectively, from the RM4.09 billion and RM4.48 billion," it added.
CSCSTEL - CSC Steel down on 3Q net loss
Stock Name: CSCSTEL
Company Name: CSC STEEL HOLDINGS BERHAD
Research House: HLG
KUALA LUMPUR: Shares of CSC Steel Bhd fell in early trade on Monday, Nov 15 after it posted net loss of RM1.6 million in the third quarter ended Sept 30.
At 9.13am, it was down 7.0 sen to RM1.75 with 360,700 shares done.
The FBM KLCI fell 2.16 points to 1,497.65. Turnover was 61.79 million shares valued at RM47.60 million. There were 116 gainers, 124 losers and 128 stocks unchanged.
Hong Leong Investment Bank Research (HLIB Research) said 9MFY10 result came in below expectations, at 71.7% of its full-year forecast and 67.9% of the consensus full-year estimates.
'The 3QFY10 turned into a net loss of RM1.6 million from net profit of RM31.6 million in 2QFY10 (3QFY09: RM38.9m) on the back of lower sales volumes and selling prices; and RM10 million inventory writedown,' it said.
HLIB Research lowered FY10 net profit forecast by 13.7% on weaker-than-expected set of 3QFY10 performance. FY11-12 net profit forecasts maintained.
'No change to target price of RM2.17, based on 8x FY10 EPS of 27.2 sen.'' Maintain BUY,' it said.
Company Name: CSC STEEL HOLDINGS BERHAD
Research House: HLG
KUALA LUMPUR: Shares of CSC Steel Bhd fell in early trade on Monday, Nov 15 after it posted net loss of RM1.6 million in the third quarter ended Sept 30.
At 9.13am, it was down 7.0 sen to RM1.75 with 360,700 shares done.
The FBM KLCI fell 2.16 points to 1,497.65. Turnover was 61.79 million shares valued at RM47.60 million. There were 116 gainers, 124 losers and 128 stocks unchanged.
Hong Leong Investment Bank Research (HLIB Research) said 9MFY10 result came in below expectations, at 71.7% of its full-year forecast and 67.9% of the consensus full-year estimates.
'The 3QFY10 turned into a net loss of RM1.6 million from net profit of RM31.6 million in 2QFY10 (3QFY09: RM38.9m) on the back of lower sales volumes and selling prices; and RM10 million inventory writedown,' it said.
HLIB Research lowered FY10 net profit forecast by 13.7% on weaker-than-expected set of 3QFY10 performance. FY11-12 net profit forecasts maintained.
'No change to target price of RM2.17, based on 8x FY10 EPS of 27.2 sen.'' Maintain BUY,' it said.
PETGAS - OSK Research expects poor 2Q for Petronas Gas
Stock Name: PETGAS
Company Name: PETRONAS GAS BHD
Research House: OSK
KUALA LUMPUR: OSK Research expects a poor 2Q quarter for PETRONAS GAS BHD [] when it announces its results at month's end since the July'Aug quarter is traditionally weaker given the higher staff and maintenance costs.
In a research note issued on Monday, Nov 15, it also pared down its medium term forecasts to account for slower centralised utilities facilities growth and lower Throughput margins, in line with management's cautious statements.
Nonetheless, the longer term prospects are brightening, with the upcoming LNG import terminal expected to bring in some 11% more gas to Petronas Gas's pipelines.
'While our earnings forecast has been cut, we are raising our terminal growth rate and our DCF value is only pared down to RM13.25. Maintain Buy,' it said.
Company Name: PETRONAS GAS BHD
Research House: OSK
KUALA LUMPUR: OSK Research expects a poor 2Q quarter for PETRONAS GAS BHD [] when it announces its results at month's end since the July'Aug quarter is traditionally weaker given the higher staff and maintenance costs.
In a research note issued on Monday, Nov 15, it also pared down its medium term forecasts to account for slower centralised utilities facilities growth and lower Throughput margins, in line with management's cautious statements.
Nonetheless, the longer term prospects are brightening, with the upcoming LNG import terminal expected to bring in some 11% more gas to Petronas Gas's pipelines.
'While our earnings forecast has been cut, we are raising our terminal growth rate and our DCF value is only pared down to RM13.25. Maintain Buy,' it said.
GENTING - Genting up on O&G project rights sale
Stock Name: GENTING
Company Name: GENTING BHD
Research House: CREDIT SUISSE
Genting Bhd, a Malaysian casino and power group, rose the most in almost a month in Kuala Lumpur trading after receiving US$136.5 million from selling its rights to future sales of an oil and gas (O&G) project in Indonesia.
The stock climbed 1.6 per cent to RM10.32 at 10.51 am, set for its steepest gain since October 19.
Genting also climbed after its share-price estimate was raised to RM13 from RM10.65 at Credit Suisse Group AG, which said Genting is a "cheaper" exposure to its Singapore unit.
Company Name: GENTING BHD
Research House: CREDIT SUISSE
Genting Bhd, a Malaysian casino and power group, rose the most in almost a month in Kuala Lumpur trading after receiving US$136.5 million from selling its rights to future sales of an oil and gas (O&G) project in Indonesia.
The stock climbed 1.6 per cent to RM10.32 at 10.51 am, set for its steepest gain since October 19.
Genting also climbed after its share-price estimate was raised to RM13 from RM10.65 at Credit Suisse Group AG, which said Genting is a "cheaper" exposure to its Singapore unit.
GENTING - Genting cut to 'neutral' at Goldman
Stock Name: GENTING
Company Name: GENTING BHD
Research House: GOLMAN SACHS
Genting Bhd was lowered to "neutral" from "buy" and Genting Singapore Plc was cut to "sell" from "neutral" at Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
The brokerage cited rising regulatory risk for the Singapore unit as the government is becoming concerned before the general election about gambling by citizens.
The brokerage raised Genting Bhd's share-price estimate to RM11.70 from RM10.50 and Genting Singapore's price estimate to S$1.73 from S $1.50, according to the report by David Ng, analyst at Goldman Sachs. -- Bloomberg
Company Name: GENTING BHD
Research House: GOLMAN SACHS
Genting Bhd was lowered to "neutral" from "buy" and Genting Singapore Plc was cut to "sell" from "neutral" at Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
The brokerage cited rising regulatory risk for the Singapore unit as the government is becoming concerned before the general election about gambling by citizens.
The brokerage raised Genting Bhd's share-price estimate to RM11.70 from RM10.50 and Genting Singapore's price estimate to S$1.73 from S $1.50, according to the report by David Ng, analyst at Goldman Sachs. -- Bloomberg
Saturday, November 13, 2010
---PROTON INSPIRA 2.0 premium (High Line)优缺点
强项
附有VAPS、 MP3/WMA和蓝牙支援的Clarion 2 Din音响主机、驾驶盘换挡拨片、定速巡航系统、车前大灯与雨刷自动开启感应系统以及自动恒温系统等装置，配套可称得上丰富。Proton Inspira 2.0 premium版的驾驶操控使到大部份的媒体感到惊讶，汽车底盘、悬挂系统配上205/60 R16的Continental CC5轮胎表现非常出色，试驾期间途经甘榜小路，驶过崎岖不平的路面所传来的颠簸感被有效的过滤，震荡感觉微小，而且在过急弯或者遇到路面较大起伏之时， 车辆的侧倾度也不会导致乘客大幅度的左右晃动而感到不适。另一方面，虽然略重的车头，在进弯之后，会出现前驱车一般容易转向不足的现象，这时只要略收油 门，就能让车辆平稳的回到轨道上顺利出弯，汽车转向的掌控非常精准，制动灵敏，在剧烈操控时车子也会把当前的动态状况确实地传达予驾驶者，提供驾驶者更大 的信心，随行的资深媒体甚至用“Amazing”来形容。
弱点
CVT （INVECS-III）无段变速模拟六速手自排变速箱反应平顺但不够直接，让人会有马力留失的感觉，直路冲刺的加速感没有期待中来的强。防火墙的隔音效 果稍弱，转速超过4000转之后引擎声响变得十分明显。内饰则显得比较内敛，搭配上仿桃木样式的装饰减弱了整体的运动气息，皮质座椅虽然提供了不错的乘坐 舒适感，但是在造型与包覆性的表现上，却略差，内饰整体上还是有着很大的进步空间。
Friday, November 12, 2010
13/11/2010 03.00pm KLCI falls below 1,500, Asian markets down
KUALA LUMPUR: Selling pressure accelerated across Asia on lingering talk of more interest rate increases and a scramble out of resource-related shares, with the FBM KLCI falling below the 1,500 level in the afternoon trade on Friday, Nov 12.
At 2.52pm, the FBM KLCI fell 20.20 points to 1,493.50. Turnover was 1.04 billion shares valued at RM1.23 billion. Losers hammered gainers 705 to 140.
KL Kepong was the top loser, down 90 sen to RM19.30, Genting 40 sen to RM10.20, KFCH 25 sen to RM4.04, Kulim 22 sen to RM13.20 while Sime and DiGi shed 20 sen each to RM8.74 and RM24.26.
Reuters reported the South Korean won suffered its biggest daily percentage loss in almost five months on Friday, pressured by mounting cautions that the financial authorities may announce measures after the G20 summit to curb hot money inflows.
The euro fell on Friday on fears that Ireland may need a bailout just like Greece, while a sharp decline in commodities and stock prices hastened a broad retreat from risky assets.
Asian stocks were broadly lower, led by a 5 percent drop in the Shanghai composite index -- its biggest single-day decline since May.
Plain old profit taking was also the culprit after a months'-long rally in many markets.
This year has been difficult for many investors because of the sudden shifts in risk taking on everything from the sovereign debt crisis in Europe, fears of both a slowdown and overheating in China and worries about the U.S. double dipping back into recession, causing havoc to trading strategies.As a result, many investors may be prone to take profits -- or losses -- and wait for 2011.
Written by Joseph Chin
At 2.52pm, the FBM KLCI fell 20.20 points to 1,493.50. Turnover was 1.04 billion shares valued at RM1.23 billion. Losers hammered gainers 705 to 140.
KL Kepong was the top loser, down 90 sen to RM19.30, Genting 40 sen to RM10.20, KFCH 25 sen to RM4.04, Kulim 22 sen to RM13.20 while Sime and DiGi shed 20 sen each to RM8.74 and RM24.26.
Reuters reported the South Korean won suffered its biggest daily percentage loss in almost five months on Friday, pressured by mounting cautions that the financial authorities may announce measures after the G20 summit to curb hot money inflows.
The euro fell on Friday on fears that Ireland may need a bailout just like Greece, while a sharp decline in commodities and stock prices hastened a broad retreat from risky assets.
Asian stocks were broadly lower, led by a 5 percent drop in the Shanghai composite index -- its biggest single-day decline since May.
Plain old profit taking was also the culprit after a months'-long rally in many markets.
This year has been difficult for many investors because of the sudden shifts in risk taking on everything from the sovereign debt crisis in Europe, fears of both a slowdown and overheating in China and worries about the U.S. double dipping back into recession, causing havoc to trading strategies.As a result, many investors may be prone to take profits -- or losses -- and wait for 2011.
Written by Joseph Chin
KENCANA - OSK keeps 'buy' call on Kencana
Stock Name: KENCANA
Company Name: KENCANA PETROLEUM BHD
Research House: OSK
Kencana Petroleum Bhd is expected to land some new contracts soon given the improving sentiment in the local oil and gas (O&G) industry, said OSK Research.
In its research note today, OSK said the contracts may include fabrication and hook-up and commissioning jobs.
OSK said with crude oil price stabilising at close to a one-year high since the fourth quarter of 2009 of US$70-US$80 a barrel, Petroliam Nasional Bhd and its production-sharing contractors would commence major capital expenditure.
"Also, since the O&G sector has been quiet over the past two years, any new contracts would start with fabrication and cascade down to other support services such as support vessels, pipe laying and so on," it said.
It said it was upbeat Kencana should be receiving new contracts anytime soon.
The research house has maintained its ''buy'' call on the company and raised the target price to RM2.57.
"The higher valuation was based on expectation that the listing of Malaysia Marine and Heavy Engineering Holdings Bhd has started the ball rolling for a re-rating of most of the share prices of O&G stocks," it said. -- Bernama
Company Name: KENCANA PETROLEUM BHD
Research House: OSK
Kencana Petroleum Bhd is expected to land some new contracts soon given the improving sentiment in the local oil and gas (O&G) industry, said OSK Research.
In its research note today, OSK said the contracts may include fabrication and hook-up and commissioning jobs.
OSK said with crude oil price stabilising at close to a one-year high since the fourth quarter of 2009 of US$70-US$80 a barrel, Petroliam Nasional Bhd and its production-sharing contractors would commence major capital expenditure.
"Also, since the O&G sector has been quiet over the past two years, any new contracts would start with fabrication and cascade down to other support services such as support vessels, pipe laying and so on," it said.
It said it was upbeat Kencana should be receiving new contracts anytime soon.
The research house has maintained its ''buy'' call on the company and raised the target price to RM2.57.
"The higher valuation was based on expectation that the listing of Malaysia Marine and Heavy Engineering Holdings Bhd has started the ball rolling for a re-rating of most of the share prices of O&G stocks," it said. -- Bernama
MAYBANK - OSK Research upgrades earnings estimates for 5 banks
Stock Name: MAYBANK
Company Name: MALAYAN BANKING BHD
Research House: OSK
KUALA LUMPUR: OSK Research has upgraded its earnings estimates for five out of seven banks under its coverage.
In its research note on Friday, Nov 12, it said the upgrades were largely premised on stronger loans growth and lower loan loss provision.
'We also note that the likes of CIMB, RHB Capital and AMMB could provide more earnings upside surprises on the back of a stronger than expected capital market earnings rebound in the upcoming quarters with the strong pick up in bond origination flows.
'We are maintaining our overweight recommendations and deem any market correction as an opportunity to accumulate. Our large cap banking top picks are CIMB (BUY, TP: RM9.77), MAYBANK (BUY, TP: RM10.07) and mid-cap stock RHB Cap (BUY, TP: RM9.56). We also upgrade AMMB to a BUY with TP of RM6.90,' it said.
Company Name: MALAYAN BANKING BHD
Research House: OSK
KUALA LUMPUR: OSK Research has upgraded its earnings estimates for five out of seven banks under its coverage.
In its research note on Friday, Nov 12, it said the upgrades were largely premised on stronger loans growth and lower loan loss provision.
'We also note that the likes of CIMB, RHB Capital and AMMB could provide more earnings upside surprises on the back of a stronger than expected capital market earnings rebound in the upcoming quarters with the strong pick up in bond origination flows.
'We are maintaining our overweight recommendations and deem any market correction as an opportunity to accumulate. Our large cap banking top picks are CIMB (BUY, TP: RM9.77), MAYBANK (BUY, TP: RM10.07) and mid-cap stock RHB Cap (BUY, TP: RM9.56). We also upgrade AMMB to a BUY with TP of RM6.90,' it said.
CIMB - OSK Research upgrades earnings estimates for 5 banks
Stock Name: CIMB
Company Name: CIMB GROUP HOLDINGS BERHAD
Research House: OSK
KUALA LUMPUR: OSK Research has upgraded its earnings estimates for five out of seven banks under its coverage.
In its research note on Friday, Nov 12, it said the upgrades were largely premised on stronger loans growth and lower loan loss provision.
'We also note that the likes of CIMB, RHB Capital and AMMB could provide more earnings upside surprises on the back of a stronger than expected capital market earnings rebound in the upcoming quarters with the strong pick up in bond origination flows.
'We are maintaining our overweight recommendations and deem any market correction as an opportunity to accumulate. Our large cap banking top picks are CIMB (BUY, TP: RM9.77), MAYBANK (BUY, TP: RM10.07) and mid-cap stock RHB Cap (BUY, TP: RM9.56). We also upgrade AMMB to a BUY with TP of RM6.90,' it said.
Company Name: CIMB GROUP HOLDINGS BERHAD
Research House: OSK
KUALA LUMPUR: OSK Research has upgraded its earnings estimates for five out of seven banks under its coverage.
In its research note on Friday, Nov 12, it said the upgrades were largely premised on stronger loans growth and lower loan loss provision.
'We also note that the likes of CIMB, RHB Capital and AMMB could provide more earnings upside surprises on the back of a stronger than expected capital market earnings rebound in the upcoming quarters with the strong pick up in bond origination flows.
'We are maintaining our overweight recommendations and deem any market correction as an opportunity to accumulate. Our large cap banking top picks are CIMB (BUY, TP: RM9.77), MAYBANK (BUY, TP: RM10.07) and mid-cap stock RHB Cap (BUY, TP: RM9.56). We also upgrade AMMB to a BUY with TP of RM6.90,' it said.
PMETAL - AmResearch: Press Metal transforming into integrated aluminium giant
Stock Name: PMETAL
Company Name: PRESS METAL BHD
Research House: AMMB
KUALA LUMPUR: AmResearch has initiated coverage on PRESS METAL BHD [] with a BUY call and a fair value of RM3.30/share. This pegs the stock to a target PE of 11 times ' at a steep 28% discount to its larger pure integrated global aluminium peers.
In its research note on Thursday, Nov 11, it said Press Metal is on the cusp of a structural transformation into an integrated aluminium giant within Asean, following the successful rollout of its smelter in Mukah, Sarawak.
Press Metal's Mukah plant will crucially have unencumbered access to cheap hydro power and the first mover advantage as the country's first smelter.
Press Metal's Mukah smelter is one of only two operating within Asean' which together with China ' has a base consumption of 20 million tonnes (or circa half of global aluminium demand).
AmResearch said the recent emergence of Japan's Sumitomo as a cornerstone investor in the smelter (20% stake plus option for another 5%) has further enhanced the stock's value proposition.
'Additionally, Press Metal is in a strong position to secure an additional power of 510MW from Sarawak Energy Bhd at attractive rates against the spectre of an insufficient off-take in the state when Bakun comes on stream by end-1H11,' it said.
The research house said Press Metal is a direct play on the debasement of the US dollar and its associated reflationary pressure on base metal prices. London Metal Exchange aluminium prices have surged 10% YTD to US$2,389/tonne, amid an extended commodity rally since September.
Earnings are at an inflexion point ' with a robust FY10F-12F EPS CAGR of 64%. Core earnings surged six-fold to RM30mil just from a six-month contribution from Phase 1A (70% of group profits).
With capex for the entire Phase 1 (US$300mil) already frontloaded, AmResearch expects sequential earnings momentum to gain traction along with rapid expansion in margins.
Total capacity should double to 120,000 tonnes in FY11 with the commissioning of Phase 1B by year-end.
AmResearch has conservatively assumed average LME-based selling prices of US$2,400/tonne-US$2,425/tonne for FY11F-12F (FY10F:US$2,200/tonne) against the backdrop of an improving global aluminium imbalance.
'Valuations are exceedingly compelling, at FY10F-12F PEs of only 6x-14x against EPS CAGR of 62%. We believe Press Metal deserves to trade at a scarcity premium given its deepening progression as an integrated regional aluminium player ' with a further capacity kicker stemming from Phase 2 of its Mukah expansion (US$600 mil),' it said.
Company Name: PRESS METAL BHD
Research House: AMMB
KUALA LUMPUR: AmResearch has initiated coverage on PRESS METAL BHD [] with a BUY call and a fair value of RM3.30/share. This pegs the stock to a target PE of 11 times ' at a steep 28% discount to its larger pure integrated global aluminium peers.
In its research note on Thursday, Nov 11, it said Press Metal is on the cusp of a structural transformation into an integrated aluminium giant within Asean, following the successful rollout of its smelter in Mukah, Sarawak.
Press Metal's Mukah plant will crucially have unencumbered access to cheap hydro power and the first mover advantage as the country's first smelter.
Press Metal's Mukah smelter is one of only two operating within Asean' which together with China ' has a base consumption of 20 million tonnes (or circa half of global aluminium demand).
AmResearch said the recent emergence of Japan's Sumitomo as a cornerstone investor in the smelter (20% stake plus option for another 5%) has further enhanced the stock's value proposition.
'Additionally, Press Metal is in a strong position to secure an additional power of 510MW from Sarawak Energy Bhd at attractive rates against the spectre of an insufficient off-take in the state when Bakun comes on stream by end-1H11,' it said.
The research house said Press Metal is a direct play on the debasement of the US dollar and its associated reflationary pressure on base metal prices. London Metal Exchange aluminium prices have surged 10% YTD to US$2,389/tonne, amid an extended commodity rally since September.
Earnings are at an inflexion point ' with a robust FY10F-12F EPS CAGR of 64%. Core earnings surged six-fold to RM30mil just from a six-month contribution from Phase 1A (70% of group profits).
With capex for the entire Phase 1 (US$300mil) already frontloaded, AmResearch expects sequential earnings momentum to gain traction along with rapid expansion in margins.
Total capacity should double to 120,000 tonnes in FY11 with the commissioning of Phase 1B by year-end.
AmResearch has conservatively assumed average LME-based selling prices of US$2,400/tonne-US$2,425/tonne for FY11F-12F (FY10F:US$2,200/tonne) against the backdrop of an improving global aluminium imbalance.
'Valuations are exceedingly compelling, at FY10F-12F PEs of only 6x-14x against EPS CAGR of 62%. We believe Press Metal deserves to trade at a scarcity premium given its deepening progression as an integrated regional aluminium player ' with a further capacity kicker stemming from Phase 2 of its Mukah expansion (US$600 mil),' it said.
KKB - KKB Eng top gainer on strong earnings, OSK FV RM2.76
Stock Name: KKB
Company Name: KKB ENGINEERING BHD
Research House: OSK
KUALA LUMPUR: Shares of KKB ENGINEERING BHD [] climbed in early trade on Friday, Nov 12 after it registered a strong set of earnings in the third quarter.
At 9.28am, it was up 14 sen to RM2.05 with 2.21 million shares done.
The FBM KLCI shed 3.32 points to 1,510.38. Turnover was 168.35 million shares valued at RM143.45 million. There were 140 gainers, 204 losers and 177 stocks unchanged.
OSK Research had a fair value of RM2.76, derived from 10 times FY11 EPS.
'We are amazed with KKB Engineering (KKB) striking a 3Q net profit of RM23.3 million that was more than double that in 3QFY09 and 73.4% higher q-o-q,' it said.
The research house said the astounding quarter, during which its nine-months bottomline marginally surpassed its full-year estimate, was mainly attributed to the 16% revenue increase in the engineering and CONSTRUCTION [] division, which also recorded an exceptionally strong EBIT margin of 49.1%.
'We understand that the company secured a fast track construction job that offered an attractive margin in 3Q. Apart from that, the manufacturing division's EBIT margin of 44.6% was extraordinary although sales dropped q-o-q,' it said.
Company Name: KKB ENGINEERING BHD
Research House: OSK
KUALA LUMPUR: Shares of KKB ENGINEERING BHD [] climbed in early trade on Friday, Nov 12 after it registered a strong set of earnings in the third quarter.
At 9.28am, it was up 14 sen to RM2.05 with 2.21 million shares done.
The FBM KLCI shed 3.32 points to 1,510.38. Turnover was 168.35 million shares valued at RM143.45 million. There were 140 gainers, 204 losers and 177 stocks unchanged.
OSK Research had a fair value of RM2.76, derived from 10 times FY11 EPS.
'We are amazed with KKB Engineering (KKB) striking a 3Q net profit of RM23.3 million that was more than double that in 3QFY09 and 73.4% higher q-o-q,' it said.
The research house said the astounding quarter, during which its nine-months bottomline marginally surpassed its full-year estimate, was mainly attributed to the 16% revenue increase in the engineering and CONSTRUCTION [] division, which also recorded an exceptionally strong EBIT margin of 49.1%.
'We understand that the company secured a fast track construction job that offered an attractive margin in 3Q. Apart from that, the manufacturing division's EBIT margin of 44.6% was extraordinary although sales dropped q-o-q,' it said.
MUHIBAH - CIMB Research ups Muhibbah to Trading Buy, TP RM2
Stock Name: MUHIBAH
Company Name: MUHIBBAH ENGINEERING (M) BHD
Research House: CIMB
KUALA LUMPUR: CIMB Equities Research begins coverage on Muhibbah Engineering Bhd with a Trading Buy call and target price of RM2, pegged to a 20% discount to its RNAV.
The research house said on Thursday, Nov 11 that the company is'' a midsized contractor that has diversified into cranes, shipbuilding and airport/road maintenance concessions.
'In addition to riding on the improving outlook for project flows in both the local and overseas markets, Muhibbah may soon see a resolution to the payment issue for the Asia Petroleum Hub project, which has been a major drag on its share price.
In addition to the likely resolution of the APH project, CIMB Research said the share price could be catalysed by (i) better-than-expected quarterly performances, (ii) more contract wins, and (iii) a recovery in investors' sentiment on the stock as its foreign shareholding has plunged from 41% in 2007 to a low of 6% now.
Company Name: MUHIBBAH ENGINEERING (M) BHD
Research House: CIMB
KUALA LUMPUR: CIMB Equities Research begins coverage on Muhibbah Engineering Bhd with a Trading Buy call and target price of RM2, pegged to a 20% discount to its RNAV.
The research house said on Thursday, Nov 11 that the company is'' a midsized contractor that has diversified into cranes, shipbuilding and airport/road maintenance concessions.
'In addition to riding on the improving outlook for project flows in both the local and overseas markets, Muhibbah may soon see a resolution to the payment issue for the Asia Petroleum Hub project, which has been a major drag on its share price.
In addition to the likely resolution of the APH project, CIMB Research said the share price could be catalysed by (i) better-than-expected quarterly performances, (ii) more contract wins, and (iii) a recovery in investors' sentiment on the stock as its foreign shareholding has plunged from 41% in 2007 to a low of 6% now.
MEGB - OSK Research lowers Masterskill TP to RM3.59
Stock Name: MEGB
Company Name: MASTERSKILL EDUCATION GROUP
Research House: OSK
KUALA LUMPUR: OSK Research has cut its earnings outlook for Masterskill Education Group Bhd following delays in student intake at its two new campuses in Kuching and Johor.
The research house said on Thursday, Nov 11 the delays and also lower margin assumptions necessitate a cut in its earnings forecast for FY10 and FY11 by 13.4% and 12.6% respectively.
'This subsequently lowers our TP from RM4.12 to RM3.59 based on 12x PER on FY11 EPS. However, given the more than 40% upside following the plunge in the share price, we are upgrading our recommendation from Neutral to Trading Buy,' it said.
OSK Research said the execution risk in delivering student growth expectations and concerns over its high dependence on the PTPTN scheme, as well as a potential selldown by its pre-IPO shareholders, especially after the moratorium period ends next week, may continue to haunt the stock.
Company Name: MASTERSKILL EDUCATION GROUP
Research House: OSK
KUALA LUMPUR: OSK Research has cut its earnings outlook for Masterskill Education Group Bhd following delays in student intake at its two new campuses in Kuching and Johor.
The research house said on Thursday, Nov 11 the delays and also lower margin assumptions necessitate a cut in its earnings forecast for FY10 and FY11 by 13.4% and 12.6% respectively.
'This subsequently lowers our TP from RM4.12 to RM3.59 based on 12x PER on FY11 EPS. However, given the more than 40% upside following the plunge in the share price, we are upgrading our recommendation from Neutral to Trading Buy,' it said.
OSK Research said the execution risk in delivering student growth expectations and concerns over its high dependence on the PTPTN scheme, as well as a potential selldown by its pre-IPO shareholders, especially after the moratorium period ends next week, may continue to haunt the stock.
HSL - OSK Research maintains Buy on Hock Seng Lee, TP RM2.32
Stock Name: HSL
Company Name: HOCK SENG LEE BHD
Research House: OSK
KUALA LUMPUR: OSK Research is maintaining its Buy call on HOCK SENG LEE BHD [] (HSL) and raised the target price to RM2.32.
HSL won a rural road job worth RM67 million, which brings its YTD wins to OSK Research's FY10 target of RM500 million.
'We see HSL as a key beneficiary of more infra jobs in Sarawak, fuelled by the upcoming state election,' said the research house on Thursday, Nov 11.
The potential jobs include road packages, education institutions, Mukah Airport and Phase 2 of the wastewater system.
OSK Research said it valued HSL at 14.5 times on FY11 earnings given its impeccable fundamentals. Maintain BUY, TP raised to RM2.32.
Company Name: HOCK SENG LEE BHD
Research House: OSK
KUALA LUMPUR: OSK Research is maintaining its Buy call on HOCK SENG LEE BHD [] (HSL) and raised the target price to RM2.32.
HSL won a rural road job worth RM67 million, which brings its YTD wins to OSK Research's FY10 target of RM500 million.
'We see HSL as a key beneficiary of more infra jobs in Sarawak, fuelled by the upcoming state election,' said the research house on Thursday, Nov 11.
The potential jobs include road packages, education institutions, Mukah Airport and Phase 2 of the wastewater system.
OSK Research said it valued HSL at 14.5 times on FY11 earnings given its impeccable fundamentals. Maintain BUY, TP raised to RM2.32.
SUNREIT - RHB Research maintains Outperform on Sunway REIT, unch FV RM1.05
Stock Name: SUNREIT
Company Name: SUNWAY REAL ESTATE INVT TRUST
Research House: RHB
KUALA LUMPUR: RHB Research Institute is maintaining its Outperform call on Sunway REIT, with an unchanged fair value (FV) of RM1.05.
In a research , it said the FV was based on a 7% target yield on its FY12 dividend per unit (DPU) forecast of 7.3 sen.
RHB Research said Sunway REIT's 1QFY11 realised net profit of RM38.4 million was in line with its and market expectations.
'Note that, 1QFY11 earnings contribution only started since 8th July 2010. A 1.51 sen DPU was declared during the quarter, on track to meet our DPU forecast of 6.7 sen for FY11,' it said
The research house expected earnings from the remaining nine months of FY11 to come in stronger.
Company Name: SUNWAY REAL ESTATE INVT TRUST
Research House: RHB
KUALA LUMPUR: RHB Research Institute is maintaining its Outperform call on Sunway REIT, with an unchanged fair value (FV) of RM1.05.
In a research , it said the FV was based on a 7% target yield on its FY12 dividend per unit (DPU) forecast of 7.3 sen.
RHB Research said Sunway REIT's 1QFY11 realised net profit of RM38.4 million was in line with its and market expectations.
'Note that, 1QFY11 earnings contribution only started since 8th July 2010. A 1.51 sen DPU was declared during the quarter, on track to meet our DPU forecast of 6.7 sen for FY11,' it said
The research house expected earnings from the remaining nine months of FY11 to come in stronger.
DAYANG - Dayang continues to slide
Stock Name: DAYANG
Company Name: DAYANG ENTERPRISE HOLDINGS BHD
Research House: ECMLIBRA
KUALA LUMPUR: Dayang Enterprise extended its losses on Wednesday, Nov 10 as investors were negative about its proposed rights issue.
At 11.52am, Dayang was down 11 sen to RM2.18. Volume traded was 1.23 million shares.
The FBM KLCI was down 0.41 of a point to 1,526.12. Turnover was 821.5 million shares valued at RM912.35 million. There were 289 gainers, 414 losers and 293 stocks unchanged.
ECM Libra Investment Research had raised its estimates to reflect stronger marine charter margins. It added'' Dayang has gained significantly in recent weeks, surging past its previous RM2.65 target price and the stock was fully valued now.
'Also, we view that the much talk about oncoming orders is already be priced in. We are revising Dayang from buy to HOLD as there is only 4% upside to our revised TP of RM3.17.
'The revised TP reflects FY11 EPS pegged to a 15 times price-to-earningsE (15 times is the average PE of small-mid cap oil & gas stocks). To note, the group announced a proposal for a one-for-four bonus issue to be followed by a one-for-four rights issue on Monday,' it said.
Company Name: DAYANG ENTERPRISE HOLDINGS BHD
Research House: ECMLIBRA
KUALA LUMPUR: Dayang Enterprise extended its losses on Wednesday, Nov 10 as investors were negative about its proposed rights issue.
At 11.52am, Dayang was down 11 sen to RM2.18. Volume traded was 1.23 million shares.
The FBM KLCI was down 0.41 of a point to 1,526.12. Turnover was 821.5 million shares valued at RM912.35 million. There were 289 gainers, 414 losers and 293 stocks unchanged.
ECM Libra Investment Research had raised its estimates to reflect stronger marine charter margins. It added'' Dayang has gained significantly in recent weeks, surging past its previous RM2.65 target price and the stock was fully valued now.
'Also, we view that the much talk about oncoming orders is already be priced in. We are revising Dayang from buy to HOLD as there is only 4% upside to our revised TP of RM3.17.
'The revised TP reflects FY11 EPS pegged to a 15 times price-to-earningsE (15 times is the average PE of small-mid cap oil & gas stocks). To note, the group announced a proposal for a one-for-four bonus issue to be followed by a one-for-four rights issue on Monday,' it said.
Wednesday, November 10, 2010
DAYANG - Dayang Ent cut to 'hold' at ECM Libra
Stock Name: DAYANG
Company Name: DAYANG ENTERPRISE HOLDINGS BHD
Research House: ECMLIBRA
Dayang Enterprise Holdings Bhd, a Malaysian oil and gas services provider, was cut to "hold" from "buy" at ECM Libra Capital Sdn Bhd because the stock has limited upside as incoming orders have already been priced in.
The share price estimate was raised to RM3.17 from RM2.65, analyst Bernard Ching, said in a report today.
The stock rose in Kuala Lumpur trading, set for a record close after the company proposed a bonus share issue and third-quarter profit more than doubled.
The stock climbed 1 per cent to RM3.07 at 9:13 am local time. -- Bloomberg
Company Name: DAYANG ENTERPRISE HOLDINGS BHD
Research House: ECMLIBRA
Dayang Enterprise Holdings Bhd, a Malaysian oil and gas services provider, was cut to "hold" from "buy" at ECM Libra Capital Sdn Bhd because the stock has limited upside as incoming orders have already been priced in.
The share price estimate was raised to RM3.17 from RM2.65, analyst Bernard Ching, said in a report today.
The stock rose in Kuala Lumpur trading, set for a record close after the company proposed a bonus share issue and third-quarter profit more than doubled.
The stock climbed 1 per cent to RM3.07 at 9:13 am local time. -- Bloomberg
DAYANG - Dayang falls, despite positive earnings outlook
Stock Name: DAYANG
Company Name: DAYANG ENTERPRISE HOLDINGS BHD
Research House: RHB
KUALA LUMPUR: Shares of Dayang Enterprise Bhd fell in the afternoon session on Tuesday, Nov 9 despite the stronger earnings and upbeat outlook for the company but some investors might not have favoured its rights issue plan,
At 3.04pm, it was down 11 sen to RM2.93 with 2.28 million shares done. The FBM KLCI rose 3.15 points to 1,522.99. Turnover was 1.0 billion shares valued at RM1.18 billion.
Dayang's third quarter earnings doubled to RM22.63 million from RM11.03 million a year ago due to higher value of work orders received and performed.
It also proposed a one-for-four bonus issue of 88 million new shares and also a renounceable rights issue of 110 million new shares on the basis of one rights shares for every four shares held.
RHB Research said the near-term outlook for Dayang was positive on sustained news flow.
'After our earnings revision, our fair value has been raised to RM3.86/share (from RM3.01 previously), based on FY11 EPS of 25.7 sen on unchanged 15 times PER. This implies an upside of 26.9%. Maintain Outperform,' it said.
Company Name: DAYANG ENTERPRISE HOLDINGS BHD
Research House: RHB
KUALA LUMPUR: Shares of Dayang Enterprise Bhd fell in the afternoon session on Tuesday, Nov 9 despite the stronger earnings and upbeat outlook for the company but some investors might not have favoured its rights issue plan,
At 3.04pm, it was down 11 sen to RM2.93 with 2.28 million shares done. The FBM KLCI rose 3.15 points to 1,522.99. Turnover was 1.0 billion shares valued at RM1.18 billion.
Dayang's third quarter earnings doubled to RM22.63 million from RM11.03 million a year ago due to higher value of work orders received and performed.
It also proposed a one-for-four bonus issue of 88 million new shares and also a renounceable rights issue of 110 million new shares on the basis of one rights shares for every four shares held.
RHB Research said the near-term outlook for Dayang was positive on sustained news flow.
'After our earnings revision, our fair value has been raised to RM3.86/share (from RM3.01 previously), based on FY11 EPS of 25.7 sen on unchanged 15 times PER. This implies an upside of 26.9%. Maintain Outperform,' it said.
MASTEEL - Masteel hopeful of riding on govt projects
Stock Name: MASTEEL
Company Name: MALAYSIA STEEL WORKS (KL)BHD
Research House: OSK
Upgrade to trading buy at 98 sen with a target price of RM1.22: We visited Malaysia Steel Works (KL) Bhd (Masteel) last week and gather that its management is hopeful of riding on a long list of projects announced by the government.
After spending some RM60 million to RM70 million over the past two years to modify its furnace and billet caster, Masteel expects its billet capacity to progressively increase from 450,000 tonnes per year (tpy) to 650,000 tpy in FY12 by deploying in stages, 130mm billets instead of the original 120mm entities.
The company has also identified a plant near its existing rolling mill to embark on its downstream expansion. As the plant only requires minimum modification conversion to install a new rolling facility, the company has identified three machine suppliers from China to expedite the delivery of the required machines.
The management is targeting to increase its rolling capacity to 500,000 tpy upon full commissioning in FY12. It hopes this would be on time to ride on the string of public infrastructure and building projects announced by the government recently.
While we expect weak financial performance from steel mills in the second half of FY2010 (2HFY10), Masteel suggests that the company's sales is encouraging. Managing director/chief executive officer Datuk Seri Tai Hean Leng said the company had endeavored to import containerised scrap metal after the liberalisation of the scrap market since end-2008.
Although we are surprised at the possible increase in sales volume, we think Masteel might have benefited from being centrally located in the catchment areas of steel demand. Also being a smaller mill, the volume it produces is way easier for the market to absorb. We also suspect that its management might have accumulated enough experience in dealing with cheaper scrap imports by container, which are normally priced at about US$20 (RM61.80) discount compared to bulk imports.
Therefore, we are revising upwards our FY10 net profit estimates by 62.7% to RM42.4 million and FY11 numbers by 7% to RM47.5 million. As its earnings may exceed market expectation, we upgrade our call to Trading Buy, with a new target price of RM1.22. ' OSK Research
This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily
Company Name: MALAYSIA STEEL WORKS (KL)BHD
Research House: OSK
Upgrade to trading buy at 98 sen with a target price of RM1.22: We visited Malaysia Steel Works (KL) Bhd (Masteel) last week and gather that its management is hopeful of riding on a long list of projects announced by the government.
After spending some RM60 million to RM70 million over the past two years to modify its furnace and billet caster, Masteel expects its billet capacity to progressively increase from 450,000 tonnes per year (tpy) to 650,000 tpy in FY12 by deploying in stages, 130mm billets instead of the original 120mm entities.
The company has also identified a plant near its existing rolling mill to embark on its downstream expansion. As the plant only requires minimum modification conversion to install a new rolling facility, the company has identified three machine suppliers from China to expedite the delivery of the required machines.
The management is targeting to increase its rolling capacity to 500,000 tpy upon full commissioning in FY12. It hopes this would be on time to ride on the string of public infrastructure and building projects announced by the government recently.
While we expect weak financial performance from steel mills in the second half of FY2010 (2HFY10), Masteel suggests that the company's sales is encouraging. Managing director/chief executive officer Datuk Seri Tai Hean Leng said the company had endeavored to import containerised scrap metal after the liberalisation of the scrap market since end-2008.
Although we are surprised at the possible increase in sales volume, we think Masteel might have benefited from being centrally located in the catchment areas of steel demand. Also being a smaller mill, the volume it produces is way easier for the market to absorb. We also suspect that its management might have accumulated enough experience in dealing with cheaper scrap imports by container, which are normally priced at about US$20 (RM61.80) discount compared to bulk imports.
Therefore, we are revising upwards our FY10 net profit estimates by 62.7% to RM42.4 million and FY11 numbers by 7% to RM47.5 million. As its earnings may exceed market expectation, we upgrade our call to Trading Buy, with a new target price of RM1.22. ' OSK Research
This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily
LINGUI - Strong log demands to keep Lingui going
Stock Name: LINGUI
Company Name: LINGUI DEVELOPMENT BHD
Research House: CIMB
Lingui Developments Bhd
(Nov 10, RM1.26)
Maintain sell at RM1.24 with a target price of 94 sen: Although core net profit in the first quarter ended Sept 30, 2010 worked out to 110% of our forecast on an annualised basis, we deem it as within our and market expectations. This is because we expect weaker earnings in the remaining quarters due to higher transportation costs and a likely weakening of the US dollar.
Also within expectations was the decision against an interim dividend per share.We maintain our earnings per share forecast and target price of 94 sen which we continue to base on the stock's 12-month average price-to-book value ratio of 0.4 time. Until the company can deliver sustainable quarterly earnings, we will continue to use asset-based valuation for the stock.
Lingui remains a sell, with the potential downside catalysts being a weaker-than-expected recovery in Japan's housing market, and an oversupply in the plywood market. Worth noting are the potential anti-dumping duties by South Korea and other countries.
Lingui recorded a RM39 million net profit in the first quarter. However, stripping out a RM16 million gain from changes in the net fair value of its plantation assets and RM7 million unrealised foreign exchange gains, core net profit was only RM16 million.
Core earnings over the next few quarters could be weaker. Although log and plywood prices should remain firm in FY11, this is expected to be offset by the stronger ringgit as timber products are priced in US dollars. Also worth noting is rising transportation cost due to high crude oil prices.
Demand remained strong for logs during the quarter, mainly from India and China. Lingui sold 188,662 m3 at an average selling price of RM461 per m3, a 7.2% quarterly increase.
During the period, Lingui exported 62,531m3 of plywood, down by an annual rate of 18%. On anti-dumping duties. South Korea is expected to make a decision on plywood imported from Malaysia by year-end. ' CIMB Research
This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily
Company Name: LINGUI DEVELOPMENT BHD
Research House: CIMB
Lingui Developments Bhd
(Nov 10, RM1.26)
Maintain sell at RM1.24 with a target price of 94 sen: Although core net profit in the first quarter ended Sept 30, 2010 worked out to 110% of our forecast on an annualised basis, we deem it as within our and market expectations. This is because we expect weaker earnings in the remaining quarters due to higher transportation costs and a likely weakening of the US dollar.
Also within expectations was the decision against an interim dividend per share.We maintain our earnings per share forecast and target price of 94 sen which we continue to base on the stock's 12-month average price-to-book value ratio of 0.4 time. Until the company can deliver sustainable quarterly earnings, we will continue to use asset-based valuation for the stock.
Lingui remains a sell, with the potential downside catalysts being a weaker-than-expected recovery in Japan's housing market, and an oversupply in the plywood market. Worth noting are the potential anti-dumping duties by South Korea and other countries.
Lingui recorded a RM39 million net profit in the first quarter. However, stripping out a RM16 million gain from changes in the net fair value of its plantation assets and RM7 million unrealised foreign exchange gains, core net profit was only RM16 million.
Core earnings over the next few quarters could be weaker. Although log and plywood prices should remain firm in FY11, this is expected to be offset by the stronger ringgit as timber products are priced in US dollars. Also worth noting is rising transportation cost due to high crude oil prices.
Demand remained strong for logs during the quarter, mainly from India and China. Lingui sold 188,662 m3 at an average selling price of RM461 per m3, a 7.2% quarterly increase.
During the period, Lingui exported 62,531m3 of plywood, down by an annual rate of 18%. On anti-dumping duties. South Korea is expected to make a decision on plywood imported from Malaysia by year-end. ' CIMB Research
This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily
SP Setia where is the limit?
SP Setia - When I put this as my best pick for a 6 month hold, I am sure most would have gone into the warrants. That would have chalked up a return of more than 100% in less than 2 months. If you wish to hold or buy more, indications are still good for further upside. Sometimes good memory will get you to keep 100% gain but lose out on 200% gain. Despite the recent surge, indicators still good for a trade or hold.
Klang river project (potential beneficiaries: SP Setia (Buy; TP RM4.80), YTL Power (Hold; TP: RM2.50), MRCB).
The drive to improve Kuala Lumpur’s attractiveness would also benefit large landowners in the greater KL area such as SP Setia, Bolton (Buy; TP: RM1.50) and DNP (Buy; TP: RM2.25).
The market may have under-appreciated the deep embedded value of Eco City, given current bearish consensus view on condominium and office space due to oversupply concerns. The soft launch of three boutique office buildings (net saleable area: 720,000sq ft) and one signature office tower (NSA: 300,000 sq ft), with a combined GDV of RM1.05bil, has been well received despite the premium pricing of RM1,000psf. Not many even know what the Eco City is all about - imagine Mid Valley, multiply by 3x and add in a substantive residential element as well.
The under appreciation is due to the supply picture. About 14 million sq ft of purpose-built office space is in the pipeline in Kuala Lumpur between 2010 and 2013. This is worrisome as only 1.8 million sq ft of new office space is absorbed every year. To make things worse, the government recently announced the plan to build a 100-storey tower in ‘Warisan Merdeka’ and to develop the RM26bil Kuala Lumpur International Financial District near Jln Tun Razak. Further to that, the completion of the KL International Financial District would mean some re-location of other financial institutions from existing buildings, which should mean more vacant space in the market.
It is easy to be over optimistic and take the mantra "If You Build, They Will Come" as the rally cry. However, the big development is on the opposite side of Federal Highway and links Bangsar, KL city and PJ easily - you cannot find a more lucrative site for an integrated commercial residential mega development. Knowing that they themselves lack a suitable track record in such big planning works, S.P. Setia has entrusted Jerde Partnership as the master planner for this development. Jerde, based in Los Angeles, US, is a world-renowned architect and master planner for integrated mixed-use commercial and residential development. Its high profile projects include Namba Parks in Osaka, the wonderful Roppongi Hills in Tokyo, Zlote Tarasy in Poland and Kanyon in Turkey.
SP Setia is trading at a 25% discount to the fully diluted NAV of RM6.80 – which is unjustified given its solid track record and the most liquid property stock in the market. Tack in the Eco City and potential involvement in RRI-Sungai Buloh and maybe even the 100 storey tower by PNB, you have liftoff.
When you consider the excellent merger between Sunrise and UEM Land, there are a host of possibilities of something of that nature happening to SP Setia. You can do the possibilities especially with PNB and EPF running the ship at SP Setia.
Klang river project (potential beneficiaries: SP Setia (Buy; TP RM4.80), YTL Power (Hold; TP: RM2.50), MRCB).
The drive to improve Kuala Lumpur’s attractiveness would also benefit large landowners in the greater KL area such as SP Setia, Bolton (Buy; TP: RM1.50) and DNP (Buy; TP: RM2.25).
The market may have under-appreciated the deep embedded value of Eco City, given current bearish consensus view on condominium and office space due to oversupply concerns. The soft launch of three boutique office buildings (net saleable area: 720,000sq ft) and one signature office tower (NSA: 300,000 sq ft), with a combined GDV of RM1.05bil, has been well received despite the premium pricing of RM1,000psf. Not many even know what the Eco City is all about - imagine Mid Valley, multiply by 3x and add in a substantive residential element as well.
The under appreciation is due to the supply picture. About 14 million sq ft of purpose-built office space is in the pipeline in Kuala Lumpur between 2010 and 2013. This is worrisome as only 1.8 million sq ft of new office space is absorbed every year. To make things worse, the government recently announced the plan to build a 100-storey tower in ‘Warisan Merdeka’ and to develop the RM26bil Kuala Lumpur International Financial District near Jln Tun Razak. Further to that, the completion of the KL International Financial District would mean some re-location of other financial institutions from existing buildings, which should mean more vacant space in the market.
It is easy to be over optimistic and take the mantra "If You Build, They Will Come" as the rally cry. However, the big development is on the opposite side of Federal Highway and links Bangsar, KL city and PJ easily - you cannot find a more lucrative site for an integrated commercial residential mega development. Knowing that they themselves lack a suitable track record in such big planning works, S.P. Setia has entrusted Jerde Partnership as the master planner for this development. Jerde, based in Los Angeles, US, is a world-renowned architect and master planner for integrated mixed-use commercial and residential development. Its high profile projects include Namba Parks in Osaka, the wonderful Roppongi Hills in Tokyo, Zlote Tarasy in Poland and Kanyon in Turkey.
SP Setia is trading at a 25% discount to the fully diluted NAV of RM6.80 – which is unjustified given its solid track record and the most liquid property stock in the market. Tack in the Eco City and potential involvement in RRI-Sungai Buloh and maybe even the 100 storey tower by PNB, you have liftoff.
When you consider the excellent merger between Sunrise and UEM Land, there are a host of possibilities of something of that nature happening to SP Setia. You can do the possibilities especially with PNB and EPF running the ship at SP Setia.
Tuesday, November 9, 2010
RHBCap sees record 2010/11 earnings
RHB Capital Bhd, the best performer on Malaysia's benchmark equity index this year, expects record earnings for 2010 and 2011 as lending accelerates and the company expands in overseas markets.
Profit at Malaysia's fourth-largest banking group may climb to RM1.4 billion (US$453 million) this year from RM1.2 billion in 2009, managing director Tajuddin Atan said in an interview yesterday in Kuala Lumpur. Profit is expected to keep rising in 2011, he said.
RHB's loan growth may exceed 15 per cent this year, almost double the industry pace, Tajuddin said. The Kuala Lumpur-based bank plans to generate about a fifth of its profit from abroad in five years, up from 4 per cent now, as it expands in Southeast Asia, he said.
'The profits are coming in and we know it's sustainable,' Tajuddin said. 'Malaysia's economy is doing quite well, with the impetus that has been put forward by the government.'
Malaysia's gross domestic product may grow as much as 6 per cent next year after expanding 7 per cent in 2010, according to an Oct. 15 Ministry of Finance report. Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak's government has identified US$444 billion in projects led by non-state companies to spur investment.
Shares of RHB, controlled by Malaysia's biggest pension fund, fell 0.1 per cent to RM8.08 at the 5 pm close of trading in Kuala Lumpur yesterday. The stock's 52 per cent advance this year makes it the best performer on the nation's FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index, which has climbed 19 per cent.
bIndonesia Takeover
Malayan Banking Bhd, the country's biggest lender by assets, posted a record profit for the 12 months ended June 30, helped by earnings at PT Bank Internasional Indonesia, which it bought in 2008.
RHB, whose net income almost tripled from 2006 to the end of last year, aims to complete the acquisition and listing of Indonesian lender PT Bank Mestika Dharma by the first quarter of 2011, pending regulatory approval, Tajuddin said. The company plans to list the bank on the Jakarta Stock Exchange before completing the purchase.
That acquisition may double RHB's share of earnings coming from abroad to 8 per cent of the total, Tajuddin said. Apart from Indonesia, both Thailand and Vietnam look 'promising,' he said. The company has an office in Vietnam and branches in Singapore, Thailand and Brunei. -- Bloomberg
Profit at Malaysia's fourth-largest banking group may climb to RM1.4 billion (US$453 million) this year from RM1.2 billion in 2009, managing director Tajuddin Atan said in an interview yesterday in Kuala Lumpur. Profit is expected to keep rising in 2011, he said.
RHB's loan growth may exceed 15 per cent this year, almost double the industry pace, Tajuddin said. The Kuala Lumpur-based bank plans to generate about a fifth of its profit from abroad in five years, up from 4 per cent now, as it expands in Southeast Asia, he said.
'The profits are coming in and we know it's sustainable,' Tajuddin said. 'Malaysia's economy is doing quite well, with the impetus that has been put forward by the government.'
Malaysia's gross domestic product may grow as much as 6 per cent next year after expanding 7 per cent in 2010, according to an Oct. 15 Ministry of Finance report. Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak's government has identified US$444 billion in projects led by non-state companies to spur investment.
Shares of RHB, controlled by Malaysia's biggest pension fund, fell 0.1 per cent to RM8.08 at the 5 pm close of trading in Kuala Lumpur yesterday. The stock's 52 per cent advance this year makes it the best performer on the nation's FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index, which has climbed 19 per cent.
bIndonesia Takeover
Malayan Banking Bhd, the country's biggest lender by assets, posted a record profit for the 12 months ended June 30, helped by earnings at PT Bank Internasional Indonesia, which it bought in 2008.
RHB, whose net income almost tripled from 2006 to the end of last year, aims to complete the acquisition and listing of Indonesian lender PT Bank Mestika Dharma by the first quarter of 2011, pending regulatory approval, Tajuddin said. The company plans to list the bank on the Jakarta Stock Exchange before completing the purchase.
That acquisition may double RHB's share of earnings coming from abroad to 8 per cent of the total, Tajuddin said. Apart from Indonesia, both Thailand and Vietnam look 'promising,' he said. The company has an office in Vietnam and branches in Singapore, Thailand and Brunei. -- Bloomberg
SUNRISE - Sunrise surges on takeover offer
Stock Name: SUNRISE
Company Name: SUNRISE BHD
Research House: RHB
KUALA LUMPUR: RHB Research is maintaining its Outperform on SUNRISE BHD [] with a revised fair value of RM3 (cum dividend basis of the offer price) following a notice of conditional takeover offer from UEM LAND HOLDINGS BHD [].
The research house said on Monday, Nov 8 that given that the offer involves share swap, the share price performance of Sunrise will largely depend on the price performance of UEM Land shares. Some weakness in share price may be expected after ex-dividend date, as some shareholders may not want to own UEM Land shares but would like to benefit from the dividend.
'We maintain our Outperform rating on the stock with a revised fair value of RM3 (cum dividend basis of the offer price),' it said.
Last Thursday, Sunrise has received a notice of conditional takeover offer from UEM Land to acquire all Sunrise shares at an offer price of RM2.80 per share to be satisfied in either of the following manner, at the election of shareholders:
(i) through the issuance of new ULHB shares at an issue price of RM2.10 each and Sunrise shareholders will receive about 1.33 ULHB shares for every share surrendered; or
(ii) through the issuance of redeemable convertible preference shares (RCPS) at an issue price of RM1.00 each and Sunrise shareholders will receive 2.80 RCPS for every share surrendered.
Company Name: SUNRISE BHD
Research House: RHB
KUALA LUMPUR: RHB Research is maintaining its Outperform on SUNRISE BHD [] with a revised fair value of RM3 (cum dividend basis of the offer price) following a notice of conditional takeover offer from UEM LAND HOLDINGS BHD [].
The research house said on Monday, Nov 8 that given that the offer involves share swap, the share price performance of Sunrise will largely depend on the price performance of UEM Land shares. Some weakness in share price may be expected after ex-dividend date, as some shareholders may not want to own UEM Land shares but would like to benefit from the dividend.
'We maintain our Outperform rating on the stock with a revised fair value of RM3 (cum dividend basis of the offer price),' it said.
Last Thursday, Sunrise has received a notice of conditional takeover offer from UEM Land to acquire all Sunrise shares at an offer price of RM2.80 per share to be satisfied in either of the following manner, at the election of shareholders:
(i) through the issuance of new ULHB shares at an issue price of RM2.10 each and Sunrise shareholders will receive about 1.33 ULHB shares for every share surrendered; or
(ii) through the issuance of redeemable convertible preference shares (RCPS) at an issue price of RM1.00 each and Sunrise shareholders will receive 2.80 RCPS for every share surrendered.
MASTEEL - OSK Research: Masteel may report surge in 2H
Stock Name: MASTEEL
Company Name: MALAYSIA STEEL WORKS (KL)BHD
Research House: OSK
KUALA LUMPUR: OSK Research says Malaysia Steel Works (KL) Bhd may report a surprise surge in 2H, in tandem with its efforts to import cheaper scrap metal by containers.
In a research note issued on Monday, Nov 8, it said Masteel's smallish size enable easier maneuvering of sales during a weak market.
'Therefore, we are upgrading our call to Trading BUY resulting from the higher earnings, with our new fair value tagged at RM1.22,' it said.
Company Name: MALAYSIA STEEL WORKS (KL)BHD
Research House: OSK
KUALA LUMPUR: OSK Research says Malaysia Steel Works (KL) Bhd may report a surprise surge in 2H, in tandem with its efforts to import cheaper scrap metal by containers.
In a research note issued on Monday, Nov 8, it said Masteel's smallish size enable easier maneuvering of sales during a weak market.
'Therefore, we are upgrading our call to Trading BUY resulting from the higher earnings, with our new fair value tagged at RM1.22,' it said.
Monday, November 8, 2010
PROTON - Hybrid likely to be below RM100,000
Stock Name: PROTON
Company Name: PROTON HOLDINGS BHD
Research House: OSK
Proton Holdings Bhd
(Nov 3, RM4.86)
Maintain buy at RM4.88 with target price of RM6.18: We are quite surprised that Proton's hybrid line-up is to be launched next year, as media reports had indicated a launch sometime in FY12 with the commercialisation of the EMAS model, one of which will be based on a hybrid/electric engine.
Given that three of the prototype cars will be tested with 50 units to be used by the government, we believe product testing is in the final stages before mass production begins.
As the commercial launch is slated sometime next year, we think the hybrid engine could potentially be fitted into the Saga or Persona, for which the earlier price indication is about RM80,000, taking into account the higher cost of the batteries.
Plagued by negative perceptions arising from legacies of negative quality issues, we think Proton's upcoming hybrid variant will meet with some scepticism.
Furthermore, following the Budget 2011 announcement on incentives for hybrid cars ' the 100% exemption on import and excise duties on hybrid cars below 2,000cc (which saw the price of the Toyota Prius and Honda Civic trimmed down to RM139,900 and RM108,980) we see Proton having a tough time competing with the Japanese automakers.
Fortunately for Proton, the temporary tax and duty exemption on imported hybrid cars is only valid for 2011.
This gives a strong indication that Proton's hybrid will likely be commercially launched'' by 2012, once the tax exemption is lifted (which would see imported hybrid cars reverting to their original prices), thus making Proton's hybrid potentially 50% cheaper than other marques.
While we are sceptical on Proton's hybrid variant should it be launched next year, given the shorter development time frame, we think Proton could well be ready by 2012.
We are also encouraged by strong bookings of the Proton Inspira, which to date could exceed 2,000 units. Proton's valuation remains appealing as the stock is trading at a FY11 price-to-earnings ratio (PER) of 6.7 times against the sector PER of'' nine to 10 times.
We maintain 'buy' at an unchanged target price of RM6.18, based on its FY12 earnings per share of 8.5 times PER. ' OSK Research
Company Name: PROTON HOLDINGS BHD
Research House: OSK
Proton Holdings Bhd
(Nov 3, RM4.86)
Maintain buy at RM4.88 with target price of RM6.18: We are quite surprised that Proton's hybrid line-up is to be launched next year, as media reports had indicated a launch sometime in FY12 with the commercialisation of the EMAS model, one of which will be based on a hybrid/electric engine.
Given that three of the prototype cars will be tested with 50 units to be used by the government, we believe product testing is in the final stages before mass production begins.
As the commercial launch is slated sometime next year, we think the hybrid engine could potentially be fitted into the Saga or Persona, for which the earlier price indication is about RM80,000, taking into account the higher cost of the batteries.
Plagued by negative perceptions arising from legacies of negative quality issues, we think Proton's upcoming hybrid variant will meet with some scepticism.
Furthermore, following the Budget 2011 announcement on incentives for hybrid cars ' the 100% exemption on import and excise duties on hybrid cars below 2,000cc (which saw the price of the Toyota Prius and Honda Civic trimmed down to RM139,900 and RM108,980) we see Proton having a tough time competing with the Japanese automakers.
Fortunately for Proton, the temporary tax and duty exemption on imported hybrid cars is only valid for 2011.
This gives a strong indication that Proton's hybrid will likely be commercially launched'' by 2012, once the tax exemption is lifted (which would see imported hybrid cars reverting to their original prices), thus making Proton's hybrid potentially 50% cheaper than other marques.
While we are sceptical on Proton's hybrid variant should it be launched next year, given the shorter development time frame, we think Proton could well be ready by 2012.
We are also encouraged by strong bookings of the Proton Inspira, which to date could exceed 2,000 units. Proton's valuation remains appealing as the stock is trading at a FY11 price-to-earnings ratio (PER) of 6.7 times against the sector PER of'' nine to 10 times.
We maintain 'buy' at an unchanged target price of RM6.18, based on its FY12 earnings per share of 8.5 times PER. ' OSK Research
THPLANT - TH Plantations pricing issue persists
Stock Name: THPLANT
Company Name: TH PLANTATIONS BHD
Research House: MAYBANK
TH Plantations Bhd
(Nov 3, RM1.67)
Maintain hold at RM1.68 with target price of RM1.75: We raise our FY10/FY11 earnings by 12.1% and 2.2% respectively after incorporating higher average selling price (ASP) ' 2010: RM2,300 to RM2,550, 2011: RM2,400 to RM2,600 ' and higher minority contribution.
While THP is attractively valued relative to its peers, we believe the discount is merited given the company's almost perennial pricing issues. We maintain 'hold' with a higher target price of RM1.75.
Net profit for 3Q was RM22 million (+183% quarter-on-quarter, +68% year-on-year), bringing 9MFY10 net profit to RM47 million (+50% y-o-y). The ASP in 3Q (RM2,529 per tonne) trended up in line with market movements, but is still below spot (RM2,639 per tonne).
Nevertheless, the discount to spot prices has narrowed, as the commissioning of a new mill in Sabah nearer THP's estates has shortened the time taken for fruits to be processed, resulting in better oil quality.
Fresh fruit bunch (FFB) production grew 25% q-o-q and 7% y-o-y. On a year-to-date (YTD) basis, however, FFB production is down 5% y-o-y due to a weak first half.
While production trends are likely to remain favourable in 4Q, we believe THP is unlikely to achieve its FFB target of 21.6 tonnes per hectare in FY10. Our yield assumption of 19.2 tonnes per ha in FY10 remains unchanged.
By our estimate, a 50% payout translates into a dividend yield of about 4% at current prices. THP pays annual dividend in its entirety after 4Q results are declared. We forecast THP's gearing will remain at a reasonable level of 26% post-payout in FY10.
We raise our target price to RM1.75 based on 11.4 times forward price-earnings ratio, representing the two-year mean. We think a significant upward re-rating is unlikely, at least until management has permanently addressed the price inferiority issue.
However THP's relatively high dividend yield should provide downside support for the share price in our view. ' Maybank IB Research
Company Name: TH PLANTATIONS BHD
Research House: MAYBANK
TH Plantations Bhd
(Nov 3, RM1.67)
Maintain hold at RM1.68 with target price of RM1.75: We raise our FY10/FY11 earnings by 12.1% and 2.2% respectively after incorporating higher average selling price (ASP) ' 2010: RM2,300 to RM2,550, 2011: RM2,400 to RM2,600 ' and higher minority contribution.
While THP is attractively valued relative to its peers, we believe the discount is merited given the company's almost perennial pricing issues. We maintain 'hold' with a higher target price of RM1.75.
Net profit for 3Q was RM22 million (+183% quarter-on-quarter, +68% year-on-year), bringing 9MFY10 net profit to RM47 million (+50% y-o-y). The ASP in 3Q (RM2,529 per tonne) trended up in line with market movements, but is still below spot (RM2,639 per tonne).
Nevertheless, the discount to spot prices has narrowed, as the commissioning of a new mill in Sabah nearer THP's estates has shortened the time taken for fruits to be processed, resulting in better oil quality.
Fresh fruit bunch (FFB) production grew 25% q-o-q and 7% y-o-y. On a year-to-date (YTD) basis, however, FFB production is down 5% y-o-y due to a weak first half.
While production trends are likely to remain favourable in 4Q, we believe THP is unlikely to achieve its FFB target of 21.6 tonnes per hectare in FY10. Our yield assumption of 19.2 tonnes per ha in FY10 remains unchanged.
By our estimate, a 50% payout translates into a dividend yield of about 4% at current prices. THP pays annual dividend in its entirety after 4Q results are declared. We forecast THP's gearing will remain at a reasonable level of 26% post-payout in FY10.
We raise our target price to RM1.75 based on 11.4 times forward price-earnings ratio, representing the two-year mean. We think a significant upward re-rating is unlikely, at least until management has permanently addressed the price inferiority issue.
However THP's relatively high dividend yield should provide downside support for the share price in our view. ' Maybank IB Research
Friday, November 5, 2010
各种理财方式的简单比较
储蓄存款理财方式
储蓄在所有投资品种中最安全的。几乎没有违约风险。流动性强，几乎与现金的流动性等价，操作简易。但是收益较低，并且在微薄的收益中还要扣除利息税。
保险理财方式
保险的品种众多，与投资理财相关的险种主要是分红型寿险。作为投资方式来说，它兼顾了投资性和保障性，但由于是商业保险，保险公司收取的佣金交高，且资金运用受到一定限制，回报率相对较低，并且从选择险种、选择公司、签订合同到缴费，过程繁琐，还有可能遇到保险陷阱。
债券理财
债券按发行主体分为国债、地方政府债券、金融债券、企业债券以及国际债券。债券的收益性一般高于银行储蓄。债券可通过市场进行转让，或通过金融机构进行抵押贷款，流动性较好。债券的安全性比较高，但存在利率风险、信用风险及税收风险等。
基金理财
投资基金通常根据变现方式划分开放式基金和封闭式基金，其优点是积少成多，投资效率高、省时省力，投资多元化，流动性强；但是存在基金管理人的道德风险，手续费用较高，以及若出现巨额赎回会影响基金预期收益等缺陷。
外汇理财
外汇交易的优点是不需任何手续费，交易成本最低。但外汇交易的业务种类比较多，外汇分为即期外汇交易，远期外汇交易，外汇期货交易，外汇期权交易，还有套汇交易、调期交易（换期交易）等，其概念繁杂，就普通大学生而言，外汇交易对动态信息、专业知识要求很高并且需要投入大量的资金和精力，可操作性不高。
股票理财
股票市场作为间接融资的主要场所，经过十几年来国民经济的发展，市场的规范与成熟，以及上市企业的强壮，股票为越来越多的个人投资者所接受，股票的优点是收益高，流动性强，但由于股价受众多因素的影响，风险也很高。
储蓄在所有投资品种中最安全的。几乎没有违约风险。流动性强，几乎与现金的流动性等价，操作简易。但是收益较低，并且在微薄的收益中还要扣除利息税。
保险理财方式
保险的品种众多，与投资理财相关的险种主要是分红型寿险。作为投资方式来说，它兼顾了投资性和保障性，但由于是商业保险，保险公司收取的佣金交高，且资金运用受到一定限制，回报率相对较低，并且从选择险种、选择公司、签订合同到缴费，过程繁琐，还有可能遇到保险陷阱。
债券理财
债券按发行主体分为国债、地方政府债券、金融债券、企业债券以及国际债券。债券的收益性一般高于银行储蓄。债券可通过市场进行转让，或通过金融机构进行抵押贷款，流动性较好。债券的安全性比较高，但存在利率风险、信用风险及税收风险等。
基金理财
投资基金通常根据变现方式划分开放式基金和封闭式基金，其优点是积少成多，投资效率高、省时省力，投资多元化，流动性强；但是存在基金管理人的道德风险，手续费用较高，以及若出现巨额赎回会影响基金预期收益等缺陷。
外汇理财
外汇交易的优点是不需任何手续费，交易成本最低。但外汇交易的业务种类比较多，外汇分为即期外汇交易，远期外汇交易，外汇期货交易，外汇期权交易，还有套汇交易、调期交易（换期交易）等，其概念繁杂，就普通大学生而言，外汇交易对动态信息、专业知识要求很高并且需要投入大量的资金和精力，可操作性不高。
股票理财
股票市场作为间接融资的主要场所，经过十几年来国民经济的发展，市场的规范与成熟，以及上市企业的强壮，股票为越来越多的个人投资者所接受，股票的优点是收益高，流动性强，但由于股价受众多因素的影响，风险也很高。
Thursday, November 4, 2010
KLK - KL Kepong acquires another Indonesian company
Stock Name: KLK
Company Name: KUALA LUMPUR KEPONG BHD
Research House: RHB
Kuala Lumpur Kepong Bhd
(Nov 4, RM19.74)
Maintain outperform at RM19.78 with fair value at RM24.70: Kuala Lumpur Kepong (KLK) has entered into an agreement to acquire a 95% stake in PT Anugrah Surya Mandiri (PT ASM) for IDR13,585 million (RM4.72 million).
PT ASM holds a location permit (izin lokasi) for 3,700ha of land in Kampung Batu Putih, Kecamatan Batu Putih, Kabupaten Berau, Indonesia, which it intends to develop into oil palm plantations.
The purchase consideration will be financed by KLK's internally generated funds and the acquisition is expected to be completed in 1Q2012.The acquisition price of RM4.72 million'' for an effective 3,515ha of land works out to RM1,342 per ha, which is in line with other greenfield land transactions in Indonesia of RM1,200 to RM2,000 per ha.
We are positive on the acquisition as it would provide KLK with synergies, given that the land is adjacent to one of KLK's plantations in Kalimantan Timur. We estimate this acquisition will increase KLK's Indonesian landbank by about 2.6% to 136,630ha.
Main risks include: (i) a convincing reversal in crude oil price trends resulting in reversal of crude palm oil (CPO) and other vegetable oils price trends; (ii) weather abnormalities resulting in an over or under-supply of vegetable oils; (iii) revision in global biofuel mandates and trans-fat policies; and (iv) a slower than expected global economic recovery, resulting in lower than expected demand for vegetable oils.
We expect contributions from this acquisition to come through only in FY15/16, assuming KLK is able to start planting immediately once the acquisition is completed, while the acquisition cost of RM4.72 million would have already been included in our capital expenditure (capex) assumptions for FY11.
We maintain our sum-of-parts (SOP)-based fair value for KLK at RM24.70. We continue to like KLK for its inexpensive valuations (it remains the cheapest among the big-cap plantation stocks) and for its strong management with a good track record.
Further catalysts could come from better than expected fresh fruit bunch (FFB) production growth as well as sustainable return to profitability of the retail division. We maintain our 'outperform' rating on the stock. ' RHB Research Institute
Company Name: KUALA LUMPUR KEPONG BHD
Research House: RHB
Kuala Lumpur Kepong Bhd
(Nov 4, RM19.74)
Maintain outperform at RM19.78 with fair value at RM24.70: Kuala Lumpur Kepong (KLK) has entered into an agreement to acquire a 95% stake in PT Anugrah Surya Mandiri (PT ASM) for IDR13,585 million (RM4.72 million).
PT ASM holds a location permit (izin lokasi) for 3,700ha of land in Kampung Batu Putih, Kecamatan Batu Putih, Kabupaten Berau, Indonesia, which it intends to develop into oil palm plantations.
The purchase consideration will be financed by KLK's internally generated funds and the acquisition is expected to be completed in 1Q2012.The acquisition price of RM4.72 million'' for an effective 3,515ha of land works out to RM1,342 per ha, which is in line with other greenfield land transactions in Indonesia of RM1,200 to RM2,000 per ha.
We are positive on the acquisition as it would provide KLK with synergies, given that the land is adjacent to one of KLK's plantations in Kalimantan Timur. We estimate this acquisition will increase KLK's Indonesian landbank by about 2.6% to 136,630ha.
Main risks include: (i) a convincing reversal in crude oil price trends resulting in reversal of crude palm oil (CPO) and other vegetable oils price trends; (ii) weather abnormalities resulting in an over or under-supply of vegetable oils; (iii) revision in global biofuel mandates and trans-fat policies; and (iv) a slower than expected global economic recovery, resulting in lower than expected demand for vegetable oils.
We expect contributions from this acquisition to come through only in FY15/16, assuming KLK is able to start planting immediately once the acquisition is completed, while the acquisition cost of RM4.72 million would have already been included in our capital expenditure (capex) assumptions for FY11.
We maintain our sum-of-parts (SOP)-based fair value for KLK at RM24.70. We continue to like KLK for its inexpensive valuations (it remains the cheapest among the big-cap plantation stocks) and for its strong management with a good track record.
Further catalysts could come from better than expected fresh fruit bunch (FFB) production growth as well as sustainable return to profitability of the retail division. We maintain our 'outperform' rating on the stock. ' RHB Research Institute
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